Idaho vs. Portland StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHillsboro Stadium
Idaho3–5
38–14Final
Portland State2–6
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDAH | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| PORT | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonIdaho Vandals spread −9.5 53¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Idaho's recent form is 3-2 with a -0.4 average margin; Portland State is 2-3 with a -21.6 average margin.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3702 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −53% return
- Game total over 63.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, D1 WinnerWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Fair total 66.0 versus 63.5; DraftKings -110 clears the required pricing margin.
- Idaho has allowed 37.9 points per game; Portland State has allowed 43.3 through eight games.
- Biggest risk: the warehouse projected Tyrese Smith for Portland State while the current matchup listing names Gabe Downing.
D1 Winner- Passing-grade gap favors scoring: Idaho 84.8 versus Portland State 75.5; offense grades are 76.8 versus 62.3.
- Efficiency and QB/injury families converge on the over; my composite makes it a 56% outcome versus roughly 50% market-implied.
- The market is already 63.5, 64.5, so an Idaho lead followed by clock control can strand the over.
- Total points over 64.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, current-season scoring inputs produce a 66.4-point matchup projection, 1.9 above the ProphetX line.
- Idaho averages 29.9 points scored and 37.9 allowed; Portland State averages 21.8 scored and 43.3 allowed.
- Recent combined totals average 65.0 across Portland State's eight games and 67.8 across Idaho's eight games.
- Most likely loss: Idaho controls the game while Portland State stalls, leaving the total at 64 or lower.
- Idaho Vandals spread −9.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Idaho's recent form is 3-2 with a -0.4 average margin; Portland State is 2-3 with a -21.6 average margin.
- The existing over position makes an Idaho-led high-scoring script directionally coherent, without adding another total position.
- Most likely loss: Idaho's inconsistent 3-5 season catches up with it and Portland State stays within nine points.
Win chance, start to finish
50%PORTIDAHKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Idaho vs. Portland State?
The Idaho won 38–14 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.