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Michigan vs. RutgersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSHI Stadium
Michigan4–3
28–21Final
Rutgers2–5
Score by period
Team1234T
MICH777728
RUTG3100821

Top model pick, graded

Won

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +16.5 51¢

Why BETALAB 6.0 likes it: Recent 10-game EPA: Rutgers offense +0.1409/play versus Michigan +0.0118.

BETALAB 6.0Down 10% this season · 273 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-12 on this game · −34% return

  1. Under 46.5 total2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
      • Seven current games include multiple blowouts; garbage-time EPA and points-per-drive contamination widen the distribution.
      ProphetX CFB Lines
      • 130 combined current-season plays at roughly 29.1 seconds per play supports a controlled-chance game.
      • Michigan averages 20.3 points and 1.71 points per drive across seven current rows.
      • Most likely loss: Rutgers' 2.54 current points-per-drive offense regains its explosive form and reaches 47-plus total points.
    • Game total under 46.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Key Number CFB
      Why 2 models like it
      Kickoff Ledger
      • Michigan averages 0.009 offensive EPA/play and 20.3 points; Rutgers QB1 Dylan Lonergan is out.
      • Michigan allows -0.054 defensive EPA/play; expected Rutgers replacement AJ Surace faces the stronger unit.
      • Rutgers allows +0.164 defensive EPA/play, creating short-field and defensive-score risk for Michigan.
      Key Number CFB
      • Michigan averages only +0.0087 EPA/play offensively and 20.3 points; Rutgers’ starting QB AJ Surace replaces ruled-out Dylan Lonergan.
      • Michigan’s defense allows -0.0542 EPA/play, while Rutgers’ defense allows +0.1638; Michigan’s PFF defense grade is 93.5 versus 68.0.
      • Most likely loss: Rutgers’ +0.1257 offensive EPA/play and 28.7 points per game overcome the quarterback downgrade.
    • Rutgers Scarlet Knights +16.52 models agree
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, CFB HunterV2
      Why 2 models like it
      BETALAB 6.0
      • Recent 10-game EPA: Rutgers offense +0.1409/play versus Michigan +0.0118.
      • Michigan's recent defense allowed +0.0132 EPA/play; Rutgers' defense allowed +0.1980.
      • Rutgers QB Dylan Lonergan is officially out; AJ Surace is only an expected starter.
      CFB HunterV2
      • 55.5% model cover probability versus 48.3% Pinnacle fair probability; 7.2-point edge.
      • Michigan averages only 20.3 points and +0.009 offensive EPA/play across seven 2026 games.
      • Michigan's 93.5 defensive grade versus Rutgers' 68.0 could create short fields and a 20-plus-point margin.
    • Total Points under 46.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsTempo Board, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      Tempo Board
      • Michigan allows -0.054 EPA/play; its 93.5 PFF defense grade contrasts with Rutgers' 68.0, while Rutgers' team-total anchor is only 14.5.
      • the captured market is 46.5; ProphetX team-total anchors of 31.5 plus 14.5 sum to 46.0.
      • Most likely loss: Michigan converts Rutgers' weak defense efficiently, reaches 35-plus, and Rutgers adds enough points to clear 46.5.
      Long Way Home
      • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, my matchup estimate is 44.5, 45.5 points versus the 46.5 board number.
      • Michigan averages 20.3 points per game; its defense allows 15.7, and Rutgers' official starting QB Dylan Lonergan is Out.
      • Rutgers allows 33.3 points per game, so Michigan can beat the total largely by itself.
    • Michigan Wolverines −16.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

      CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • A fourth current Michigan holder is 15-10 in recent CFB positions, adding breadth to the signal.
      • Global market is liquid: about $63,402 traded on this exact -16.5 spread contract.
      • Michigan's recent form is 2-3 over its last five, while Rutgers has the stronger recent offensive EPA profile; the spread can still fail.
    • Michigan Wolverines −13.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

      Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
    Show all 14 picks
    1. Game total under 47.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • seven-game 2026 FBS sample: Michigan defense allows -0.054 EPA/play; Rutgers offense averages +0.126, but Rutgers loses QB Dylan Lonergan, officially Out.
      • Michigan offense averages only +0.009 EPA/play and 45.8% success; recent outputs were 6 and 21 points.
      • Pace/PROE: Michigan averages 29.32 seconds/play and +0.030 PROE; Rutgers 28.97 and +0.108, a moderate possession setup rather than a pure tempo Over.
      • Most likely loss: Rutgers’ +0.126 offensive EPA/play and +0.135 explosive rate overcome the quarterback downgrade, while Michigan’s defense allows enough chunk plays for 48 or more.
    2. Michigan Wolverines spread −16
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • seven-game 2026 sample: Michigan’s net EPA balance is +0.063/play versus Rutgers’ -0.038, a +0.101 Michigan gap.
      • Michigan’s defense allows -0.054 EPA/play and owns a 93.5 PFF grade; Rutgers’ defense allows +0.164 and grades 68.0.
      • Rutgers’ Dylan Lonergan is officially Out; AJ Surace is the expected replacement, while the latest box and Oct. 28 report identify Tommy Carr as Michigan’s starter.
      • Most likely loss: Michigan’s weak offense wins but fails to separate, landing inside 16 points.
    3. 1H total under 20.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Michigan averaged 1.23 points per drive across its last four games; Rutgers averaged 1.18 and 1.17 in its last two.
      • Rutgers starts AJ Surace after Dylan Lonergan was ruled out; Surace went 7-of-18 for 64 yards with one interception last week.
      • Michigan scored 6, 21, 14, and 19 points in its last four games, while its recent pace averaged 29.96 seconds per play.
      • The full-game 46.5-point market implies a faster or more productive opening half than this projection.
    4. Michigan Wolverines first-half spread NO 10.5
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • live Pinnacle full-game Michigan -21 scales to a 10.5-point first-half mean anchor.
      • 2,629 2023, 25 FBS regular-season finals produce empirical SD 14.71; square-root half-possession scaling gives SD₁H 10.40, not 7.36.
      • DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 10.5 rung: the smooth model is 50%; the observed college 10-point mass lifts the read to roughly 52% versus 47¢.
      • This is a same-side new 10.5 rung alongside the open NO 9.5 position; outcomes are highly correlated, not independent diversification.
    5. Michigan Wolverines first-half spread NO 9.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle’s full-game Michigan -16.5 supplies an 8.25-point first-half mean anchor.
      • 3,483 FBS regular-season finals from 2022, 25 have empirical margin SD 14.71; square-root half-possession scaling gives SD₁H 10.40, not 7.35.
      • DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 9.5 rung, N(8.25, 10.40²) gives Michigan-over probability 45.2%, hence NO probability 54.8%.
      • College margin 10 is a real historical mass point: 151 of 3,483 games; that discrete mass sits just inside Michigan YES and trims the smooth-model NO edge.
    6. Jordan Marshall under 68.5 rushing yards
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 64% workload-adjusted model vs FanDuel 52.8% implied: +11.2 points, +21% relative.
      • Jordan is under 68.5 in 8 of his last 10 logged games; current season is 7-for-7 under.
      • Model uses the last-10 rushing distribution, current carry workload, and an opponent adjustment.
      • Rutgers ranks 251st of 266 teams in 2026 defensive rushing PPA, a strongly unfavorable under matchup.
    7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights spread +16.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection edge; ESPN FPI matchup projects Michigan by 13.953 points, below the 16.5 spread.
      • Projection edge; Michigan's 2026 offense averages only 0.009 EPA/play across seven games.
      • Pinnacle also posts Michigan -16.5 at -102, while ProphetX offers Rutgers +16.5 at -104.
      • Rutgers is 2-5 and its defense allows 0.164 EPA/play; Michigan can win comfortably despite the projection gap.
    8. Game under 46.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Michigan allowed -0.054 defensive EPA/play across seven 2026 games; its offense averaged only +0.009 EPA/play.
      • Michigan's latest offensive EPA was -0.265/play, while Rutgers' latest was -0.103/play.
      • Quarter-Kelly is 1.5% uncapped; desk cap is 0.5% of bankroll, recorded as 0.5 units.
      • Rutgers' seven-game offense still averages +0.126 EPA/play with a 0.135 explosive-play rate.

    Win chance, start to finish

    50%RUTGMICHKickoff
    Oct 31Final

    Questions

    Who won Michigan vs. Rutgers?

    The Michigan won 28–21 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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