Wisconsin vs. IowaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalKinnick Stadium

Wisconsin5–2

0–30Final

Iowa5–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
WIS	0	0	0	0	0
IOWA	10	10	10	0	30

Top model pick, graded

Won

Iowa Hawkeyes −2.5 51¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 12-13 on this game · −3% return

Wisconsin Badgers spread +2.53 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsSaturday Board, Drift +1
Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: Iowa's -0.101 current defensive EPA allowed forces Wisconsin into a three-point-or-more defeat.
Drift
- Power rating makes Iowa a 1.5-point favorite; Wisconsin covers +2.5 at 52.8%.
- Wisconsin leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.141 to Iowa's 0.080 across seven games.
- Iowa's defense owns -0.101 defensive EPA/play versus Wisconsin's -0.007, a substantial matchup disadvantage for the Badgers.
Saturday Board Pairs
- Wisconsin’s 7-game offense averages +0.141 EPA/play versus Iowa’s -0.101 defensive EPA/play allowed; Iowa offense is +0.080 versus Wisconsin defense -0.007.
- The efficiency read favors Wisconsin’s defense: PFF 2026 overall grades are 91.9 Wisconsin to 91.2 Iowa, with a 93.5-to-91.4 defensive edge and 92.2-to-80.3 coverage edge.
- Most likely loss: Iowa’s home field and +0.473 success rate versus Wisconsin’s +0.435 produce enough sustained drives for a 3-point win or better.
Wisconsin Badgers to win2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs
- game 2026 FBS sample: Wisconsin offense is +0.141 EPA/play against Iowa defense at -0.101 allowed, a +0.242 matchup gap.
- Iowa offense is +0.080 EPA/play against Wisconsin defense at -0.007 allowed, a smaller +0.087 gap for Iowa.
- Most likely loss: Iowa’s home field and .473 success rate versus Wisconsin’s .435 produce enough sustained drives for an Iowa win.
Long Way Home
- Wisconsin leads Iowa in 2026 offensive EPA/play, +0.141 to +0.080, despite the road venue.
- Recent three-game defense favors Wisconsin: -0.134 defensive EPA allowed versus Iowa's +0.007.
- Most likely loss: Iowa's home-field advantage and season-long defensive EPA edge turn Wisconsin's recent defensive signal into a shortfall.
Iowa Hawkeyes −2.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Over 37 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model total mean 39.2 with 12.5-point SD; Over 37 fair probability is 54.0%, including the whole-number push mass.
- Pinnacle's exact 37 total is Over +102 / Under -119; devigged Over probability is 47.7%, so model 54.0% versus Pinnacle 47.7%, gap 6.3 points.
- Load-bearing possession factor: current pace/plays imply about 127 combined plays, while Iowa and Wisconsin explosive rates are 12.8% and 11.9%; enough chances support the Over tail.
- Most likely loss: Iowa's defense and a short-field-poor game keep the score at 37 or below.
Iowa Hawkeyes to win
+74%Won
Taken at −135 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Iowa model probability 60.5% versus Fliff -135 implied 57.4%, about +5.3% expected value.
- Iowa's recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.101 per play versus Wisconsin's -0.007.
- Iowa leads Wisconsin 12.4 to 8.7 in current SP+ rating and has home field at Kinnick.
- Wisconsin's recent offense has the better EPA rate, 0.141 per play versus Iowa's 0.080.
Tony Diaz under 3.5 receptions
−100%Lost
Taken at −124 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Target share fell 21.9% → 21.1% → 10.8% across his last 3 qualifying games; mean 17.9%, CV approximately 28.2%.
- Yards per target moved 8.43 → 5.75 → 14.25 while the share collapsed; production spiked as his opportunity share shrank.
- Expected RWR role is supported by 171 snaps over the last 3 games and a 94.7% season route rate; the role is stable even as targets fell.
- Most likely loss: Iowa trails early, returns to 35-plus pass attempts, and Diaz's target share rebounds toward 20%, producing four receptions.

Show all 22 picks

Iowa Hawkeyes over 3.5 first-half margin
+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Iowa +1.25 first-half mean and 16.46 SD produce 44.6% at the exact 3.5 rung.
- Pinnacle's Iowa -2.5 full-game spread scales to a +1.25 first-half mean.
- 23.28 full-game margin SD across 2,813 regular-season FBS finals scales by sqrt(2), not 2.
- Seven-game 2026 efficiency samples leave matchup-specific first-half variance unobserved.
Game total over 36.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Fair total 39.0 versus a 36.5 market; light weather adds no meaningful scoring penalty.
- Wisconsin leads season offensive EPA/play at +0.141; Iowa is +0.080, supporting offensive efficiency on both sides.
- Wisconsin averages 25.4 seconds/play and Iowa 28.9; the Badgers’ tempo can lift a slow matchup.
- Iowa scored only 10 points at Minnesota and Brown threw two interceptions in that game.
Iowa Hawkeyes 1st-half winner
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Iowa’s last-five offensive EPA/play is +0.119 versus Wisconsin’s defensive EPA allowed of -0.086: +0.205 matchup differential.
- Wisconsin’s corresponding offense-versus-Iowa-defense differential is +0.154; Iowa also leads recent success rate .472 to .445.
- Iowa’s recent PROE is +9.0% versus Wisconsin’s +1.7%, supporting a more aggressive opening script.
- Iowa’s last game split quarterback snaps; Hank Brown was confirmed to start, but Iowa said it may adjust after kickoff.
1Q total over 7.5 points
+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Last-five points per drive average 2.55 for Wisconsin and 2.40 for Iowa, supporting an 8-point first-quarter projection.
- Both teams average about 62 offensive plays in the recent sample; Iowa's recent PROE is +9.0%.
- A first quarter has roughly five possessions per team; one turnover, explosive play, or missed kick can dominate the result.
Iowa Hawkeyes over 17.5 team points
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Iowa averages 28.0 points and 2.30 points per drive through seven games.
- Iowa owns a .4727 success rate and .1285 explosive-play rate; 18 points is below its normal scoring profile.
- Selection protects against the wider game-total variance; full-game over 36.5 was rejected because it depends more on Wisconsin scoring.
- Iowa's expected quarterback alignment is not an official lineup; a credible pregame report describes the quarterback situation as unstable.
Game total over 17.5 first-half points
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season-to-date pace: Iowa 28.88 seconds/play and Wisconsin 29.09 valid average; combined pace supports the observed 12.14 first-half-drive baseline.
- PROE averages +9.9% Iowa and +0.9% Wisconsin, or +5.4% combined; 12.8% and 11.7% explosive rates support a 5.4% script uplift to 21.5 projected points.
- No independent first-half sharp reference; 21.5 is a scaled 36.5 full-game total with a structural adjustment, so this is LEAN rather than top-band.
Game total under 36.5
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model win probability 56.5% versus 50.8% Pinnacle devigged under probability: +5.7 points.
- Recent offense EPA/play is only +0.052 Wisconsin and +0.093 Iowa; both defenses are negative EPA allowed.
- Slow recent pace: 27.74 seconds/play Wisconsin and 29.63 Iowa, with run-heavy pass rates of 42.7% and 45.6%.
- Iowa averaged 2.397 points per drive over the recent window; one explosive offensive game can clear 36.5.
Wisconsin +3 spread
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wisconsin +3 wins on an Iowa win by 2 or fewer, but pushes, not loses, on an exact 3-point Iowa win; Wisconsin +3.5 wins there.
- 954 of 20,738 historical NCAAF team-games (2014-25) ended with the relevant team margin exactly +3: 4.6003%.
- ProphetX prices Wisconsin +3 at 54.34c versus +3.5 at 60.32c; the 5.98c drop over-discounts the 4.6003% push mass.
- The 4.6003% estimate is a broad 2014-25 NCAAF team-game distribution, not a Wisconsin-Iowa-specific model.
Wisconsin Badgers spread 2.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wisconsin’s FBS-only offense averages +0.119 EPA/play versus Iowa’s -0.001 across six games.
- Pinnacle’s main number is Iowa -2.5; ProphetX offers the underdog at plus money.
- Expected, not official, college lineup: a late QB change could materially alter the projection.
Wisconsin Badgers over 16.5 team points
−100%Lost
Taken at −130 on BetMGM
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- EPA delta +0.2422/play: Wisconsin offense +0.1408 minus Iowa defensive EPA allowed -0.1015, seven games each.
- Wisconsin scored touchdowns on 12 of 19 recent red-zone trips (.632); Iowa allowed 8 of 16 (.500).
- Both clocks are slow: Wisconsin 25.42 and Iowa 28.88 seconds per play versus a 23.08 FBS median; this caps the stake at 0.5u.
Chris Brooks Jr. receiving yards under 21.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7 of 10 exact-line observations stayed under 21.5; current season is 4 of 7.
- Wisconsin coverage grade is 92.2, ranked 8th of 516 eligible PFF team rows.
- Current-season form is only 4-3 under; the 7-10 full sample adds three 2025 observations.
Iowa Hawkeyes spread −2.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied, 3-3; two of three measures support Iowa, while the third is neutral rather than contradictory.
- Directional check: backing Iowa -2.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference is the only reference; no independent ticket or handle data confirms this order-flow hypothesis.
total points under 36.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: ProphetX prices Iowa under 18.5 at -152 and Wisconsin under 17.5 at -198.
- Seven-game averages allow 14.3 Iowa and 15.3 Wisconsin points; both defenses show negative EPA allowed.
- Season averages are 28.0 Iowa and 27.0 Wisconsin points scored, well above this low total.
Total Points under 37.5
+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PFF 2026 defense grades are 93.5 for Wisconsin and 91.4 for Iowa, supporting a lower scoring-rate read.
- The internal ladder leans lower: under 37.5 is liquid while the main under 36.5 is only $98; team totals center near 36 points.
- Personnel gate cleared: Colton Joseph led Wisconsin's latest pass attempts and Hank Brown led Iowa's; web reports cross-check both roles.
- Most likely loss: early explosive plays or short fields push the game to 38+ points.
Under 37 total points
+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Iowa allowed -0.0524 defensive EPA/play across six FBS games; its offense averaged -0.0010 EPA/play.
- Wisconsin's slower 25.16-second pace and .436 success rate, versus Iowa's .454, support a compressed scoring environment despite Wisconsin's +0.1194 offensive EPA.
- Pinnacle's matched 37 total was under -118; context only, not the named edge source.
- Six FBS games is a limited sample and no independent simulation was run; the 56% win estimate is modest.
Wisconsin Badgers spread +6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; NO REFERENCE: my live estimate is 49% to cover versus 44.4% implied by +125.
- Current state is Iowa 10-0 with 1:02 left in Q1; one early score has moved the live ladder to Iowa -6.5.
- Both teams entered 5-2, and Wisconsin is ranked 25th; the early deficit is not yet a multi-score game.
- Most likely loss: Iowa turns the early lead into a two-score game and Wisconsin cannot close the gap.

Win chance, start to finish

50%IOWAWISKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Wisconsin vs. Iowa?

The Iowa won 30–0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.