Pennsylvania vs. BrownFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBrown Stadium (RI)
Pennsylvania3–3
17–36Final
Brown3–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
| BROW | 10 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 36 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBrown Bears spread −3 50¢
Why House Rules likes it: home teams won by exactly 3 in 274 of 5,115 games, a 5.357% directional push mass.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-7 on this game · −57% return
- Game total under 40.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- 59.5% model win chance versus 52.4% FanDuel break-even: 7.1 percentage points.
- Season scoring averages combine to 37.5 points: Penn 18.7 scored, Brown 18.8.
- Brown posted a 69-point total last week, and Penn has a 55-point recent total; the distribution has a live upper tail.
Key Number CFB- Penn and Brown average 18.7 and 18.8 points over six games; their combined recent scoring average is 37.5.
- Both offenses are negative EPA/play (-0.091 Penn, -0.032 Brown); PFF offense grades are modest at 63.5 and 68.8, with strong defenses at 86.3 and 90.2.
- Penn's current game-day starter is not explicitly named in the October 29 preview; Teodecki is the latest starter and passing leader, so late personnel news matters.
- Brown Bears spread −3+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- home teams won by exactly 3 in 274 of 5,115 games, a 5.357% directional push mass.
- ProphetX prices Brown -2.5 at 60.63¢ (-154) but Brown -3 at 50.00¢ (+100); the 10.63¢ rung gap exceeds the 5.357% push mass.
- Brown -3 loses on Brown wins by 1-2 and on any Pennsylvania win; exactly 3 only returns stake.
Key Number CFB- Key-number density matters: exact 3-point margins occurred 1,056 times in the all-CFB regular/postseason sample, so Brown -3 retains meaningful push protection.
- Brown's 2026 profile is stronger by efficiency and film: +0.046 EPA/play offensive advantage, 46.3% versus 42.3% success, and PFF overall 84.6 versus Pennsylvania 75.9.
- Most likely loss: Brown wins by 1-2 points or Pennsylvania wins outright; exactly 3 is a push, not a win.
- Pennsylvania Quakers @ Brown Bears under 39.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 36.5, three points below 39.5; roughly 24.9 expected drives at 1.47 points per drive.
- Full coverage: six current-season games for each team; offenses average -0.032 and -0.091 EPA/play with .463 and .423 success rates.
- Current points per drive are 1.541 for Brown and 1.500 for Penn; matchup-adjusted defensive EPA supports lower efficiency.
- Penn's live Fox listing names Miles Teodecki, while the warehouse depth feed projects Karson Siqueiros-Lasky; a late quarterback change materially alters the projection.
- Pennsylvania Quakers +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on BetMGM
Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 25.9-point career SU coaching edge: Rick Santos was 37-24 (.607) at New Hampshire versus James Perry 23-43 (.348) at Brown.
- Penn allowed -0.122 EPA/play over six games versus Brown's -0.045; the stronger recent defense supports staying within the number.
- Penn has eight days since its last game versus Brown's seven, a small preparation edge for the road underdog.
- Penn averages 59.2 penalty yards versus Brown's 51.3, so the discipline edge is mixed despite Penn's lower 1.67 versus 2.5 turnovers per game.
- Game total under 39.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Brown/Penn offense EPA/play is -0.0318 and -0.0910 over six 2026 games.
- Opponent-adjusted scoring blend projects 36.0 points: Brown 18.6, Penn 17.4.
- Normal model using six-game scoring SDs gives Under 39.5 a 59.6% estimate.
- Six games per team; the normal and independent-score assumptions are uncalibrated and wide.
- Pennsylvania Quakers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Polymarket US is open and accepting, with about $4,998 traded; Penn YES is 41.5c on the straight moneyline.
- Brown is the home favorite around -3.5 and has the stronger current team grade, 84.6 to Penn's 75.9.
Show all 7 picks
- total points under 40.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; NO REFERENCE, ProphetX prices under 40.5 at -111 (52.61¢) while its lower under 39.5 is -116 (53.70¢).
- Penn and Brown combined for a 38.2-point average across their latest five games, below this rung.
- Nearby sportsbook totals sit at 38.5, 39.5, while ProphetX gives an extra point at a cheaper price than its own lower rung.
- Most likely loss: Brown-Cornell's 69-point outlier repeats through explosive plays or defensive/special-teams scores.
Win chance, start to finish
50%BROWPENNKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Pennsylvania vs. Brown?
The Brown won 36–17 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.