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Florida vs. GeorgiaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMercedes-Benz Stadium
Florida5–2
8–27Final
Georgia6–1
Score by period
Team1234T
FLA00088
UGA7170327

Top model pick, graded

Won

Florida Gators under 57.5 total points 54¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Under price remains actionable near 54¢ versus the books' 56.5-point reference.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-12 on this game · −4% return

  1. Georgia Bulldogs spread −123 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Model margin is Georgia 13.9 with approximately 17-point SD; Georgia -12 fair probability is 54.5%.
    • Georgia averages +0.342 offensive EPA/play and 3.93 points/drive; Florida allows +0.100 defensive EPA/play, while Georgia allows -0.026.
    • Most likely loss: Florida's confirmed Aaron Philo sustains its recent improvement and keeps the game within 11 or wins outright.
    Key Number CFB
    • The adjacent ladder prices Georgia -12.5 at -103 (50.74¢) and -13 at +100 (50.00¢); -12 is cheaper than both harder rungs.
    • CFB margin histogram: exact 12 occurred 139 times versus 196 exact 13s; the -12 rung captures the denser 13-point outcome that -13 misses.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia wins by 1, 11, or Florida wins outright; exactly 12 is a push, not a win.
    Long Way Home
    • Georgia leads 2026 in offensive EPA/play, 0.342 to Florida's 0.260, while its defensive EPA allowed is -0.026 versus Florida's 0.100.
    • Georgia averages 43.0 points and allows 15.9; Florida averages 39.6 and allows 28.3, producing a 15.8-point recent scoring-margin gap.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia wins by 1-11, especially if Florida's offense sustains late drives against a softer defense.
  2. Georgia Bulldogs spread −11.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • seven-game FBS sample: Georgia is +0.3424 EPA/play, .5455 success, and .1742 explosive versus Florida’s +0.2599/.5185/.1385.
    • 2026 PFF team grades favor Georgia 95.9 overall, 93.1 offense, and 92.8 defense versus Florida’s 91.7/82.7/88.2.
    • Most likely loss: Florida’s +0.2599 offensive EPA/play and .5185 success rate produce enough offense for Georgia to win by 11 or fewer.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only Georgia defensive EPA allowed is +0.025 versus Florida’s +0.163 through six games.
    • Georgia leads FBS-only offense EPA/play 0.287, 0.258, success rate 52.6%, 51.2%, and explosive rate 14.4%, 13.3%.
    • Both college lineups remain expected; Philo is only Probable, while Gunner Stockton’s latest official clearance is from October 28.
  3. Game total over 56.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • PROJECTION, 7-game 2026 sample: Georgia offense is +0.342 EPA/play, .545 success, and .174 explosive; Florida defense allows +0.100 EPA/play.
    • Florida offense is still +0.260 EPA/play, .518 success, and .139 explosive against Georgia’s strong -0.026 defensive EPA allowed: two credible scoring paths.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia’s -0.026 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Florida, while its 31.66-second pace produces too few possessions for 57 points.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Model total 63.4 points: matchup-adjusted offense/defense averages from each team's seven 2026 games.
    • 66.0% model probability from a normal total model using projected 63.4 and pooled seven-game total SD 15.8.
    • Seven-game sample is thin; underlying same-line history is not comparable: Florida is 5-2 over and Georgia 3-4 over at 56.5.
  4. Florida Gators under 57.5 total points
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under price remains actionable near 54¢ versus the books' 56.5-point reference.
    • Florida and Georgia both show positive recent offensive EPA/play, so a fast indoor game can clear 57.5.
  5. Florida Gators to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED Tier 2 VALUE dog: neutral site removes home field, Philo returns, and the margin distribution's win tail exceeds Pinnacle's fair probability.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia's 0.342 offensive EPA/play and Florida's 0.100 defensive EPA allowed convert the expected 12-point margin into a decisive win.
  6. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +16800

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX re-quote is +169 at 9:01am PT, with a $500 maximum stake.
    • NC State is scheduled at the wake time; college football lineup data is not served, and several Wolfpack players carry game-day designations.
Show all 21 picks
  1. 2-leg parlay
    +69%Won

    Taken at −145

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke model 80.0% versus 72.6% raw implied at -265: +7.4 points.
    • Duke's current-season recent profile leads Boston College in offense EPA/play 0.1934 to 0.0675, defense allowed 0.0275 to 0.0995, and points/drive 2.700 to 2.172.
    • Georgia model 86.5% versus 81.5% raw implied at -440: +5.0 points.
    • Georgia-Florida is a rivalry at a neutral indoor venue; Florida's offense still posts 0.2102 EPA/play and 0.5127 success over its recent window.
  2. Gunner Stockton under 248.5 passing yards
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 248.5 passing-yard line; Stockton stayed under in 5 of 7 2026 games.
    • Georgia's 2026 pass rate is about 46%; its expected starting quarterback has a stable three-game snap role.
    • Georgia is a large favorite at Fliff, supporting a second-half run-heavy script if the game separates.
    • Stockton exceeded this line in 2 of his last 3 games with 32 and 34 attempts.
  3. Georgia Bulldogs first-half spread NO 9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s full-game Georgia -12.0 supplies a 6.0-point first-half mean; season efficiency also favors Georgia: +0.342 EPA/play and -0.026 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Florida’s +0.260 and +0.100.
    • DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 9.5 rung, 2,629 FBS regular-season finals from 2023, 25 give full-game margin SD 14.71; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.40, producing 63% NO before the discrete adjustment and 61% after it.
    • The 10-point mass is directly on the YES side of this 9.5 threshold; the discrete correction may be larger than the two-point haircut used.
  4. Georgia Bulldogs 1st-half winnerFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Georgia's last five: +0.260 offensive EPA/play and 0.022 defensive EPA allowed, versus Florida's +0.152 and 0.186.
    • Florida's announced QB switch to Aaron Philo is a meaningful opening-script uncertainty; Georgia's Gunner Stockton status is confirmed in the game-day report.
    • Florida averaged 77 plays and 28.6 seconds per play over its last five, creating extra early possessions despite Georgia's slower 65-play, 32.3-second pace.
  5. Georgia Bulldogs −10.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 seven-game EPA: Georgia +0.342 offense/-0.026 defense versus Florida +0.260/+0.100; success rates 54.5% versus 51.8%.
    • Georgia rates #2 SP+ (27.1) and #4 FPI (26.47), versus Florida #31 SP+ (10.6) and #17 FPI (14.615).
    • College lineups are expected, not confirmed; Florida QB Aaron Philo is only probable, while Bailey Stockton and Georgia DB KJ Bolden are questionable.
  6. Georgia Bulldogs to winFavorite
    +33%Won

    Taken at 75¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Georgia is thin at the quote but deep behind it; two of three measures agree. Book levels tie 3-3, so levels do not corroborate.
    • Live game is 0-0 with 9:04 left in Q1; the first Georgia drive produced mixed early-play EPA, and in-game variance is wide.
  7. Florida Gators spread +11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: Florida 3 vs Georgia 3; backing Florida +11.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The book-level measure is tied 3-3, so only the two-measure core pairing supports the read.
  8. Florida Gators under 56.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rule: under 56.5 wins at 56 or fewer; it has no exact-number push.
    • ProphetX quotes under 56.5 and under 56 at the same -101 price; the half-point contract wins the exact-56 outcomes instead of pushing.
    • Under 56.5 still loses on 57 or more points; this is a structural edge, not a directional total projection.
  9. Georgia −12 spread (push at exactly 12)
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Georgia -12 wins by 13+, pushes at exactly 12, and loses by 11 or fewer.
    • The 0.74-point implied-price gap is smaller than the 1.244% historical exact-12 push mass, leaving the whole-number rung under-discounted.
    • The 1.244% exact-12 rate is all completed CFB games from 2014-25, not Florida-Georgia-specific.
  10. Georgia Bulldogs first-half spread NO 13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5,957 regular-season games (2020-26) produced pooled full-game margin SD 14.90; scaled 1H SD is 10.53.
    • Georgia’s season margin averages imply a 5.9-point pregame 1H mean; current 6-0 score with 16:50 left projects roughly 9.3.
    • At the exact 13.5 rung, Normal(9.3, 10.53) gives Georgia NO about 65.5%; venue re-read grades this NO contract at 61¢.
    • Only the opening quarter is complete; a Georgia explosive play or Florida turnover can overwhelm the remaining-half projection.
  11. Game over 28.5 first-half points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game 56.5 gives 28.25 at a mechanical half; the model does not stop there.
    • Season averages: 137.71 combined plays and 24.51 estimated drives per game imply 68.86 plays and 12.26 drives in half one.
    • Combined PROE is 0.0845 and explosive rate 0.1564; scripted first-half translation lifts the projection to 30.0 points.
    • Florida’s latest report confirms Aaron Philo, but Georgia’s Gunner Stockton starter status is not explicitly official.
  12. Total points over 56
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • seven-game offense/defense blend projects 63.4 points, 7.4 above the 56 threshold.
    • Georgia averages 43.0 points and 0.342 offensive EPA/play; Florida averages 39.6 and 0.260.
    • Florida allows 28.3 points per game, creating the structural mismatch the market appears to underweight.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia controls the game while Florida's attack stalls, producing a 38-14-type total below 56.
  13. Total Points over 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The matchup has an asymmetric scoring path: Florida allows +0.1004 defensive EPA/play, while Georgia's offense averages 43.0 points and 0.174 explosive rate; the teams' recent-five scoring average is 65.4 combined.
    • The ProphetX ladder is not being treated as the edge: its main team-total anchors are Florida 21.5 plus Georgia 34.5, summing to 56.0; the claim is projection-led.
    • the existing over 56.5 position remains open, but the board moved to a new 57 rung at -101, so this is the permitted same-side new-line update rather than a blind repeat.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia's -0.0258 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Florida below 20 while Georgia stalls around 30-35.
  14. Total Points over 56.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven-game 2026 averages: Florida runs 28.68 seconds/play with +7.3% PROE, 13.9% explosive rate and 51.9% success; Georgia is 30.23, +9.6%, 17.4% and 54.6%.
    • Georgia's offense is the stronger scoring engine, while Florida's current defensive EPA allowed averages +0.1004/play; the matchup supports Georgia carrying the total.
    • Georgia's 93.1 offense grade and Florida's 88.2 defense grade support sustained scoring; the venue is an indoor neutral-site game.
    • Florida's current sample includes 66- and 52-point wins over weaker opponents; its explosive and success rates may overstate this SEC matchup.
  15. Game total over 56
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only scoring averages are Georgia 39.7 points and Florida 37.5, a combined 77.2 against a 56-point rung.
    • Georgia's 0.2865 offensive EPA/play and 14.4% explosiveness pair with Florida's 0.1633 defensive EPA allowed.
    • captured main sportsbook totals were 56 to 56.5; reference only, while the scoring profile supplies the direction.
    • Florida's official page names Aaron Philo, but Georgia's Gunner Stockton remains an expected rather than officially confirmed starter.

Win chance, start to finish

50%UGAFLAKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Florida vs. Georgia?

The Georgia won 27–8 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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