Kansas State vs. ColoradoFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFolsom Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| COLO | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKansas State Wildcats spread +3.5 53¢
Why Saturday Board likes it: Pinnacle main line Colorado -3/K-State +3 (-106 each); devigged K-State +3 is 50.0%; exact +3.5 is DERIVED REFERENCE.
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-8 on this game · −41% return
- Kansas State Wildcats to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
4 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Heater Two-Hour +2Why 4 models like it
BETALAB 6.0- ESPN pregame model gives Kansas State 65.9%; BETALAB trims to 60% after the quarterback change (fair price 60¢, range 55, 64%).
- Kansas State leads current FPI 5.574 to -1.756 and SP+ 8.8 to -4.3; the ratings gap supports the underdog case.
- Avery Johnson and Jacob Knuth are out; Dillon Duff's start was reported and confirmed Saturday morning, but he is a backup quarterback.
Heater Two-Hour- Global positions are currently marked near 0.405, so the synced side is already underwater.
Long Way Home- Edge class: PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, the captured sharp anchor is opposite, so it does not confirm this position.
- 2026 ratings favor Kansas State: FPI +5.574 versus Colorado -1.756; SP+ 8.8 versus -4.3; SRS 3.7 versus -3.4.
- The market and captured Pinnacle line both make Colorado the favorite; this is a large model-versus-market disagreement, not a small edge.
ProphetX Pairs- Kansas State's six FBS-game averages: +0.129 offensive EPA/play and 48.4% success, versus Colorado -0.116 and 43.1%.
- K-State's defense also has the lower FBS-game allowed EPA rate: +0.040 versus Colorado +0.069.
- K-State's usual starter Avery Johnson is out, and Duff's limited starting-QB sample makes the projection uncertain.
- Kansas State Wildcats spread +30%Push
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- game 2026 FBS sample: Kansas State averages +0.1887 offensive EPA/play; Colorado allows +0.0470 defensive EPA/play.
- Kansas State leads current success rate .5076, .4393 and points per drive 2.817, 1.545; the efficiency mismatch favors the Wildcats.
- Most likely loss: Dillon Duff’s first career start underperforms after replacing the 41-attempt starter from K-State’s latest box.
Key Number CFB- Kansas State averages +0.189 EPA/play offense and -0.012 defense allowed versus Colorado at -0.047 and +0.047.
- Kansas State leads success rate 50.8% to 43.9% and PFF overall grade 85.4 to 78.3 in the latest 2026 card.
- Most likely loss: Dillon Duff's first career start cannot sustain Kansas State's season-long efficiency against Colorado's home defense.
- Kansas State Wildcats spread +3.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle main line Colorado -3/K-State +3 (-106 each); devigged K-State +3 is 50.0%; exact +3.5 is DERIVED REFERENCE.
- Most likely loss: Colorado home advantage plus K-State's first-start Dillon Duff adjustment produces a four-point-or-more Buffaloes win.
- Under 46.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle main total 47.0, Under -112 / Over -104; devigged Under is 50.9%, but Pinnacle did not quote 46.5.
- Most likely loss: Colorado’s 13.5% current explosive-play rate creates chunk scores and pushes the game above 46.5.
- Colorado Buffaloes spread −30%Push
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model margin distribution makes Colorado -3 a 54.0% cover; the QB-adjusted efficiency gap favors Colorado despite Kansas State's stronger raw EPA profile.
- Kansas State's Avery Johnson and Jacob Knuth are out; same-day beat reporting has Dillon Duff making his first career start, while Colorado's Isaac Wilson led the latest pass attempts.
- Most likely loss: Colorado's offense repeats its -0.047 current-season EPA/play profile and Kansas State's defense keeps the game within two or wins outright.
- DeAndre Moore Jr. over 3.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5 of Moore's 6 2026 games cleared 3.5 receptions; he has 24 catches in his last five.
- Expected starter with 178 snaps across the latest three charted games; role is stable.
- Fliff -125 implies 55.6%; my 64% estimate implies approximately 15% expected value.
- Kansas State's defense is stronger by recent defensive EPA, which can compress Colorado efficiency.
Show all 11 picks
- Colorado Buffaloes to win+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are Colorado 3 and Kansas State 3; the two core measures agree, while level count is neutral.
- Book levels tie 3-3, so there is no third-measure corroboration; lineups are expected rather than confirmed.
- Game total under 39−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Whole-total rule: under 39 wins below 39, pushes on exactly 39, and loses at 40+; adjacent under 39.5 wins at 39.
- Historical exact-total-39 frequency: 74 games, 0.714% of 2014-25 NCAAF results.
- ProphetX prices under 39 at 30.30c (+230) versus under 39.5 at 33.33c; push-adjusted gap is roughly 2.55 points beyond the historical 39 mass.
- Under 39 still loses on 40 or more points; the 0.714% push mass is historical, not a game-specific forecast.
- Colorado Buffaloes spread −2.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kansas State’s official Update 2 lists Avery Johnson and Jacob Knuth out; CJOnline reports Dillon Duff expected for his first start.
- Seven-game CFB profile: K-State +0.189 offensive EPA/play and -0.012 defensive EPA allowed versus Colorado -0.047 and +0.047.
- Colorado’s expected QB is Isaac Wilson; the personnel downgrade materially changes the prior that produced K-State’s stronger raw numbers.
- K-State’s season profile remains materially better, so the QB adjustment may be overstated.
- Game under 19.5 first-half points+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days - Total Points over 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The same ProphetX ladder has the full-game reference at 46.5, over 51.5 at +166, over 52 at -168, and over 52.5 at -103: a direct internal price discontinuity.
- Kansas State averages 32.86 points and Colorado 20.14; both are FBS with seven current-season games, while the sharp sportsbook reference remains 46.5.
- Most likely loss: Duff's first career start and Kansas State's quarterback turnover suppress the Wildcats below the roughly 29 points needed for 53-plus.
Win chance, start to finish
50%COLOKSUKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Kansas State vs. Colorado?
The Colorado won 27–24 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.