Washington vs. NebraskaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMemorial Stadium (Lincoln
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
| NEB | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWashington Huskies +7.5 50¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-6 on this game · +7% return
- Washington Huskies +7.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-Hour +1Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater- The 50c market price is near the sportsbook consensus; after Polymarket US fees, the approximate break-even is above 51.7%.
Heater Two-Hour- Golftango holds Washington +7.5 at 50.99c; both positions are same-side and opened today.
- Washington +7.5 loses on an eight-point defeat; a late move can erase this roughly 0.5-cent lag.
BETALAB 6.0- Washington's recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.0188 versus Nebraska's +0.0729; BETALAB estimates 55% cover probability, fair price 55c, range 52%-58%.
- Nebraska is 5-2 versus Washington 4-3 and has home field; its recent run-offense grade is materially stronger.
- Washington Huskies spread +7.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines +1Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board- Current EPA matchup favors the dog: Washington offense .161 versus Nebraska defensive allowed -.058, compared with Nebraska offense .191 versus Washington .022; model margin mean is Nebraska +6.4, SD about 17.5.
- Most likely loss: Nebraska's home field and 3.02 current points per drive produce an eight-point-or-more win.
ProphetX CFB Lines- Most likely loss: Nebraska's stronger current efficiency profile, 0.191 offensive EPA/play, -0.058 defensive EPA allowed, and 3.02 points per drive, creates a margin beyond 7.5.
ProphetX Pairs- Pinnacle is -7.5 -108; ProphetX remains -7.5 while its spread history stayed essentially flat since 11:00 AM PT.
- Likeliest loss path: Nebraska's offense leads 0.1782 to 0.0903 in EPA per play and its defense allows -0.0416 EPA per play versus Washington's +0.0319.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on BetMGM
2 modelsRnj, Picks With Pink Grading SystemWhy 2 models like it
Rnj- FPI game projection: Nebraska +16.182; conservative half-weight recency correction of -4.50 yields fair margin +11.68.
- Six current-season FBS games each: season scoring-margin differential favors Nebraska 18.33 points per game.
- Recent efficiency is mixed: Washington's last-three EPA/play net was better, with 2.22 versus Nebraska's 1.85 points per drive.
Picks With Pink Grading System- ESPN's published predicted margin is Nebraska 16.182, 8.682 points beyond the exact -7.5 line.
- A normal approximation centered on 16.182 with 18.2-point SD from 14 current-season team margins gives about 68% cover probability.
- The 18.2-point SD is an empirical 14-game margin sample, not a calibrated game-margin residual model.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Novig
Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle -7.5 de-vigs to 50.5% Nebraska cover probability at the anchor.
- Moving to -14.5 crosses 10 and 14; the brief's mass adjustment subtracts 7.0 points, giving 43.5% fair.
- Anthony Colandrea and Elijah Brown are both listed as expected QBs; current Pinnacle and Novig lines reflect the matchup.
- The QB listings are expected, not confirmed; a late warmup scratch is explicitly unknown.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers to win−100%Lost
Taken at −298 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nebraska leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.191 to Washington's 0.161; defense EPA/play is -0.058 versus +0.022.
- Nebraska is 5-2 with a +20.1 L7 scoring margin; Washington is 4-3 with a +5.1 L7 margin.
- The ESPN projection was observed at 12:03 AM PDT and may not fully incorporate late role changes.
- Washington Huskies over 20.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Adjusted EPA delta is +0.1766/play: Washington offense averages 0.1611 minus Nebraska defensive allowance -0.0154 across seven games each.
- Washington scored touchdowns on 18 of 26 last-five red-zone trips (.692); Nebraska allowed 4 of 14 (.286), supporting Washington's over lens.
- Washington's current success rate is .473 versus Nebraska's .344 defensive success rate; Washington's explosive rate is .1565.
- Nebraska's 89.2 PFF defensive grade and home field can turn Washington red-zone trips into field goals.
Show all 8 picks
- Chris Lawson over 57.5 receiving yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 69.0-yard mean across seven 2026 games; 31.9-yard sample SD supports a 64% over estimate.
- Over 57.5 in 5 of 7 games (71.4%; no pushes).
- Nebraska's recent defense allowed +0.0729 EPA/play, a soft matchup for Washington's passing game.
- Seven-game sample is not a full L10; form fallback mandates low conviction.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nebraska averages 35.6 points and allows 15.4; Washington averages 27.9 and allows 22.7.
- Nebraska's 48.1% success rate and -0.058 defensive EPA allowed beat Washington's 47.3% and +0.022.
- Most likely loss: Nebraska wins by seven or fewer; margin variance and Washington's road-underdog profile decide it.
Win chance, start to finish
50%NEBWASHKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Washington vs. Nebraska?
The Washington won 17–10 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.