Eastern Kentucky vs. Tarleton StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTarleton Memorial Stadium
Eastern Kentucky3–5
24–28Final
Tarleton State8–0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAST | 0 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| TARL | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal points under 58.5 52¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Projection: 2026 scoring averages are Tarleton 41.9 and Eastern Kentucky 18.0; defensive points allowed average 22.6 and 29.6, respectively, centering this matchup near 56.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3702 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −52% return
- Tarleton State Texans −24.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0- Tarleton: +0.306 EPA/play, 51.8% success, 18.1% explosive rate over eight games.
- Eastern Kentucky: -0.022 EPA/play, 45.5% success, 11.4% explosive rate; average margin -10.5.
- Expected, not confirmed, FCS lineups: Kaden Anderson and Jordyn Potts are projected quarterbacks; no official FCS availability feed.
CFB HunterV2- 59% cover estimate versus 52.4% -110 break-even; 6.6-point price edge.
- SRS rates Tarleton -16.3 and EKU -42.1, a 25.8-point neutral-strength gap before home field.
- Tarleton's 2026 average margin is +19.3, below the 24.5 threshold; an EKU backdoor cover is live.
- Total points under 58.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 2026 scoring averages are Tarleton 41.9 and Eastern Kentucky 18.0; defensive points allowed average 22.6 and 29.6, respectively, centering this matchup near 56.
- Eastern Kentucky scored 16, 20 and 16 in its last three; the under direction also coheres with a Tarleton blowout script if EKU cannot contribute.
- Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; no same-line sharp reference is being forced.
- Most likely loss: Tarleton converts short fields into 50-plus points while Eastern Kentucky adds enough to clear 58.5.
- Tarleton State Texans spread −24.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tarleton's last-five scoring margin is +25.0 per game versus Eastern Kentucky's -4.6, a 29.6-point form gap.
- Last-five offensive EPA/play averages are approximately +0.354 for Tarleton and -0.017 for Eastern Kentucky.
- The most likely loss is a Tarleton win by fewer than 25, including a late backdoor score.
Win chance, start to finish
50%TARLEASTKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Eastern Kentucky vs. Tarleton State?
The Tarleton State won 28–24 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.