Cal Poly vs. Montana StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBobcat Stadium (MT)

Cal Poly4–5

7–61Final

Montana State7–1

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
CAL	0	7	0	0	7
MONT	27	21	13	0	61

How the picks did

Models went 0-4 on this game · −100% return

Cal Poly Mustangs to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Game under 65.5 total points
−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 score-rate blend implies approximately 59.2 combined points before a modest Montana State home adjustment.
- Montana State: +0.276 offensive EPA/play and +0.0465 defensive EPA allowed; Cal Poly: +0.056 and +0.124.
- Books opened 64.5, 65.5 and moved toward 62, 64.5; 65.5 provides extra protection at the same 60¢ price as 64.5.
- Montana State can create a large lead, short fields, and late scores; Cal Poly allows 31.1 points per game.
Cal Poly Mustangs under 62.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model center is 59, 60 combined points, below the 62.5 threshold.
- Montana State allows only 0.0165 EPA/play; Cal Poly allows 0.1544 EPA/play.
- Season scoring profiles are 39.5 MSU points and 27.9 Cal Poly points per game.
- MSU averages 39.5 points and Cal Poly allows 31.4, so a dominant home script can clear 63.
Cal Poly Mustangs spread +27.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- my cover estimate is 62%, versus ProphetX's 52.83¢ implied price at -112; Pinnacle also posts -27.5 at -115.
- Montana State's SRS rating is -14.0 versus Cal Poly's -32.5: an 18.5-point gap before accounting for venue, below the 27.5 spread.
- Recent margins imply a narrower matchup: Montana State's last-five average is +11.8, Cal Poly's is -6.0, a 17.8-point differential.
- Most likely loss: Montana State's strong home offense turns its efficiency edge into a win by 28 or more.

Win chance, start to finish

50%MONTCALKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Cal Poly vs. Montana State?

The Montana State won 61–7 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.