Dayton vs. StetsonFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSpec Martin Memorial Stadium

Dayton6–1

44–34Final

Stetson1–7

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAYT	3	6	14	21	44
STET	3	13	3	15	34

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 54.5 −110

Why Tempo Gap likes it: Fair total 59.0 is 4.5 points above FanDuel's exact 54.5 line.

Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 8-1 on this game · +77% return

Game total over 54.52 models agree
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsTempo Gap, CFB HunterV2
Why 2 models like it
Tempo Gap
- Fair total 59.0 is 4.5 points above FanDuel's exact 54.5 line.
- Possession base is strong: Dayton averages 68.9 plays and Stetson 70.5 across 7/8 current-season games.
- Most likely loss: Stetson's offense stalls; its 0.046 EPA/play and 23.3 points/game face Dayton's -0.060 defensive EPA allowed.
CFB HunterV2
- The efficiency blend centers the game near 37-22, or 59 total points, above 54.5.
- Stetson allows 0.2677 EPA/play and has allowed 43.1 points per game; Dayton averages 32.0 points.
- Dayton's defense allows -0.0598 EPA/play, and Stetson's 42.6% success rate can produce stalled drives.
Game total over 55.52 models agree
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Key Number CFB
- Dayton averages +0.081 EPA/play; Stetson allows +0.268 defensive EPA/play, supporting a projection near 50.5% over 55.5.
- Dayton's seven-game sample and Stetson's eight-game sample leave a wide scoring range; one stalled drive can decide 55.5.
Long Way Home
- Edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE; reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
- Dayton has scored 32.0 points per game across seven 2026 games; Stetson has allowed 43.1 across eight.
- Most likely loss: Dayton controls the game while Stetson stalls, leaving the total at 55 or lower.
Dayton Flyers −18.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Efficiency: Dayton leads recent EPA/play 0.081 to 0.046 and defensive EPA allowed is -0.060 versus Stetson's +0.268.
- Dayton success rate is 46.4% versus 42.6%, with a major PFF team-grade edge: 84.5 to 71.2.
- QB/injury family supports Dayton: expected starters are listed, with no backup-QB or injury downgrade; Schondelmyer went 26-of-38 for 259 yards and 2 TDs last week.
- Road favorite must win by 19 or more; a late Stetson score or conservative Dayton lead management can spoil the cover.
Game over 54.5 total points
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Research grade 73/100 (B): clears the 70-point publication threshold.
- Model mean 59.7: season matchup projection 59.2 and L5 matchup projection 60.2, averaged.
- Dayton recent offense was +0.0809 EPA/play; Stetson defense allowed +0.2677 EPA/play through 2026-10-24.
- Exact-line hit rate is N/A: no comparable same-line team-total history exists for this team market.
Stetson Hatters spread +18.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SRS gap is 16.3 points, below the market's 18.5 spread before home-field credit.
- Dayton averages 0.081 offensive EPA/play; Stetson allows +0.268 defensive EPA/play.
- Dayton's recent scoring margin is +12.0; Stetson's is -19.9 across the preview windows.
- FCS opponent quality is uneven; these EPA figures are not opponent-adjusted.
Stetson Hatters +18.5
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SRS gap is 16.3 points before home-field adjustment; the model projects Dayton by 15.0.
- Dayton is at 0.0809 offensive EPA/play and Stetson allows 0.2677 defensive EPA/play, but the 18.5-point buffer prices in a blowout.
- Home venue and score variance keep Stetson inside this number in the central scenario.
- Dayton's 84.5 overall PFF grade and 83.2 defensive grade materially exceed Stetson's 71.2 and 68.2.

Show all 7 picks

Stetson Hatters spread +17.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Dayton’s recent margin is +7.6 versus Stetson’s -21.2, a simple blend near a 14.4-point gap.
- The 17.5-point cushion is wider than that recent-form gap, despite Dayton’s superior 4-1 recent run.
- Pinnacle lists Stetson +18.5 at -115, supporting the underdog direction; this is an adjacent, not same-line, reference.
- Stetson’s recent -21.2 margin includes repeated defensive collapses; another collapse loses despite the cushion.

Win chance, start to finish

50%STETDAYTKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Dayton vs. Stetson?

The Dayton won 44–34 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.