Mississippi State vs. TexasFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TEX | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 50.5 total 52¢
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-2 on this game · +39% return
- Under 50.5 total+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days - Texas Longhorns first-half winner+19%Won
Taken at 84¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas leads 7-0 at Q2 15:00; live drives show Mississippi State punted twice with one drive ongoing, while Texas has a TD and two punts.
- Starting QBs are resolved live: Arch Manning is 4/6 for 68 yards and a TD; AJ Swann is 8/8 for 72 yards; Kamario Taylor is out for the season.
- Season-to-date defensive EPA allowed is -0.09/play for Texas versus +0.12 for Mississippi State; the live split is Texas +0.26 offensive EPA/play versus MSU -0.34.
- A Mississippi State touchdown with no Texas score makes the halftime result a tie, not a Texas win.
- Arch Manning under 232.5 passing yards+80%Won
Taken at −125 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Arch averages 215.3 passing yards across seven 2026 regular-season games; he stayed under 232.5 in five.
- Mississippi State's +0.12 defensive EPA allowed per play is poor, so Texas can generate efficient early drives.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs +20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current-season FBS averages are nearly even offensively: Mississippi State 0.18 EPA/play versus Texas 0.18; MSU leads success 0.49, 0.48 and explosiveness 0.15, 0.13.
- Texas owns the defensive edge (-0.09 EPA/play allowed versus Mississippi State +0.12), but ESPN's pregame projection is Texas by 18.8, below this 20.5-point rung.
- sportsbooks show Texas -20.5 around -108/-106; Pinnacle is off-line at Texas -20, so this is context only.
- Texas's defensive EPA edge and home field can turn this into a 21-plus-point result; that is the likeliest loss path.
- Raleek Brown under 69.5 rushing yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season log: 6 unders in 7 games at 69.5; the lone over was 157 yards on 23 carries.
- Model blends the exact-line distribution with committee opportunity: 61.0% under versus 52.8% implied at -112.
- Mississippi State ranks 207th of 320 by defensive EPA (+0.12), a favorable rushing matchup for Brown.
- Arch Manning under 235.5 passing yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season log: 5 unders in 7 games at 235.5 (161, 195, 201, 173, 212 under).
- Mississippi State ranks 207th of 320 by current-season defensive EPA (+0.12), an over-friendly matchup.
Show all 9 picks
- Mississippi State Bulldogs spread +20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- own cover estimate is 55%; Texas averages a +16.2 margin across five 2026 home games, below 20.5.
- Mississippi State averages a +0.3 margin in three 2026 road games; its profile points to competitiveness rather than a 21-point loss.
- Texas is 5-0 at home, but its last-five margin is only +5.6 versus Mississippi State's -11.6; the matchup supports a Texas win more than a blowout.
- Most likely loss: Texas converts its home scoring edge into a 21-plus-point margin.
- Total points under 50.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle also posts under 50.5 at -113, corroborating the direction.
- Mississippi State's latest offense produced -0.18 EPA/play and 15 points versus Oklahoma, after -0.25 EPA/play and zero versus LSU.
- Texas can clear 35 points by itself; one short-field turnover or explosive play can break 50.5.
- Total Points under 51+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas allows -0.09 defensive EPA/play while Mississippi State allows +0.12; that matchup points to Texas scoring efficiently but Mississippi State struggling to sustain its side of the total.
- Most likely loss: Texas creates short fields or explosive plays and reaches 40-plus while Mississippi State contributes enough for 52 or more.
Win chance, start to finish
50%TEXMSSTKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Mississippi State vs. Texas?
Texas won 31-3 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.