Army vs. TulsaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalH. A. Chapman Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| TLSA | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonArmy Black Knights to win 51¢
Why Drift likes it: Independent efficiency model is 53.4% Army: off EPA .335 vs .115, success .571 vs .450, explosive rate .129 vs .107; Tulsa's defensive EPA advantage is discounted.
DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 12-7 on this game · +28% return
- Army Black Knights to win+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
6 modelsDrift, Heater Two-Hour +4Why 6 models like it
Drift- Independent efficiency model is 53.4% Army: off EPA .335 vs .115, success .571 vs .450, explosive rate .129 vs .107; Tulsa's defensive EPA advantage is discounted.
- Cale Hellums and Baylor Hayes are expected, not officially confirmed starters; lineup observed_at is null and no official college lineup exists.
Heater Two-Hour- CFB availability and lineup information is incomplete this close to kickoff, and a late scratch could reverse the signal.
Saturday Board Pairs- Army's six-game offense averages +0.3345 EPA/play and .5709 success, versus Tulsa's seven-game defense allowing +0.0338 EPA/play.
- Army's .1289 explosive rate exceeds Tulsa's .1071; the efficiency and big-play gaps support Army despite the road venue.
- Tulsa is at home and its offense averages +0.1147 EPA/play against Army's defense allowing +0.1070, creating a credible scoring path.
ProphetX Pairs- Army owns a +0.287 FBS-opponent offensive EPA/play average versus Tulsa's +0.103.
- Army's FBS-only success rate is .556 versus Tulsa's .443 across 5 versus 6 games.
- Tulsa's FBS-only defensive EPA allowed is materially better: +0.081 versus Army's +0.198.
- Total points under 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Tempo BoardWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- Under 53.5 wins if the game lands exactly 53; whole-number under 53 only pushes there.
- ProphetX under 53 is -105 (51.22c), while under 53.5 is -101 (50.25c); the half-point contract is cheaper despite adding the 53 win outcome.
- Five-season historical frequency is noisy and CFB total distributions vary by matchup and season.
Tempo Board- ProphetX's 53.5 full-game rung is 1.5 points above its Tulsa 25.5 plus Army 26.5 team-total ladder sum of 52.
- Tulsa's seven-game 2026 sample is 25.48 seconds per play, 45.0% success, 10.7% explosive rate and 2.43 points per drive.
- Most likely loss: Army's defense allowed +0.107 EPA per play in its six-game sample, creating short fields or explosive Tulsa scores.
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane to win−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Army Black Knights spread +1.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency convergence: Army current opponent-adjusted offense EPA/play averages .335 versus Tulsa .115, while Army PPD averages 3.58 versus Tulsa 2.43.
- Most likely loss: Tulsa's current defense, averaging about .034 defensive EPA/play allowed, suppresses Army and produces a two-point Tulsa win.
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane −4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Novig
Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's current -1.5 spread devigs to 48.6% Tulsa; crossing the 3-point key adds about 6 points, making Tulsa -4.5 fair near 42.6%.
- Pinnacle moved two points toward Army from an opening -2.5 to -1.5, a possible overreaction with both expected quarterbacks still reflected in the current market.
- Army QB Cale Hellums and Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes are projected, not officially confirmed; late warmup scratches remain unknown.
- Army Black Knights first-half spread over 4.5+213%Won
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game Tulsa -1.5 scales to a first-half mean of Army -0.75.
- Full-game college margin SD is 23.72 points across 937 completed 2026 FBS games; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 16.77, not 11.86.
- At mean -0.75 and SD 16.77, Army over 4.5 prices to 37.7%; raw Kalshi yes_ask 0.32 is a fraction, filed as 32 cents.
- First-half normality is an approximation; 937 full-game margins are not a direct first-half sample.
Show all 13 picks
- Army Black Knights −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at +210 on FanDuel
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army leads Tulsa in offensive EPA/play, 0.287 to 0.115, and defensive EPA/play, 0.198 to 0.058.
- Army's success rate is 0.556 versus Tulsa's 0.457.
- Army's last-six scoring margin is +14.8 per game; Tulsa's last-seven margin is +6.6.
- Tulsa is at home and has scored 31.2 points per game over its last five.
- Army Black Knights spread +1+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army's six-game offense averages +0.3345 EPA/play and .5709 success rate against Tulsa's seven-game defense allowing +0.0338 EPA/play; current 2026 samples.
- Army's .1289 explosive-play rate exceeds Tulsa's .1014 offensive rate; the matchup gives Army the stronger efficiency and explosiveness profile.
- Personnel gate clears: Cale Hellums led Army's latest passing row; Baylor Hayes led Tulsa's latest row, and same-day web coverage identifies both as the expected quarterbacks.
- Tulsa's offense averages +0.1147 EPA/play while Army's defense allows +0.1070; home-field scoring can turn this into a Tulsa win.
- Army Black Knights 1st-half winner+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: Army 1H win probability 52% versus a 46.7% devigged Kalshi three-way reference.
- Last four: Army offense averaged +0.295 EPA/play versus Tulsa defense allowing +0.135; Tulsa offense averaged +0.097 versus Army allowing +0.161.
- Army averaged 55.9% offensive success and 3.47 points per drive; Tulsa averaged 44.8% and 2.47.
- Only four recent games per team; opponent quality is not normalized in this compact comparison.
- Army Black Knights +1.5+85%Won
Taken at −118 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair Army margin +0.495: ESPN's game-specific projection has Tulsa -0.495 at home.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings favor Army: FPI +3.578, SP+ +3.9, SRS +4.9; used as support, not independent votes.
- only season: Army 5 games, +6.6 average margin; Tulsa 6, +0.7; latest-three margins favor Army 11-4.
- Tulsa's season defensive EPA allowed is better, 0.081 versus Army's 0.198; Tulsa's latest-three explosive rate is 11.5% versus Army's 10.4%.
- First-half total over 23.5 points+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 through Oct. 17: 10.38 combined first-half drives; clean pace is Army 32.37 and Tulsa 25.48 seconds/play.
- Baseline points/drive is 3.00; Army/Tulsa PROE averages -4.9% and explosive rate 11.8%, producing a specific -4.0% script modifier and 29.4 direct points.
- No independent first-half sharp quote; direct 29.4 and scaled 24.5 references diverge materially, so this is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
- Army Black Knights @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane total points under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- live total is 60.5 after 17 first-quarter points; season scoring averages imply roughly 57.3 combined points.
- Pinnacle's live total is 55.5, while DraftKings is 63.5; ProphetX under 60.5 sits above the sharper lower anchor.
- Army and Tulsa combined for 57.3 points per game entering this contest; early explosive gains are likely to regress.
- The game already has 17 points with 3:52 left in Q1; continued short-field or explosive-play efficiency can break 60.5.
- Total points under 49.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the sportsbook reference and ProphetX main rung sit at 53, while this live alternate offers +125 on under 49.5.
- 2026 sample: Army averages 22.27 seconds/play and -20.2% PROE; its pace is high, but the run-heavy profile limits pass-driven possession volatility.
- Army’s 57.085% success and 12.885% explosiveness face Tulsa’s +0.034 defensive EPA/play allowed; Tulsa’s low offensive efficiency is the scoring-rate drag.
- Most likely loss: Army’s 3.579 points/drive and Tulsa’s +0.103 PROE overcome the efficiency drag for a 30-24 type game.
Questions
Who won Army vs. Tulsa?
The Army won 38–35 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.