Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Florida A&MFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBragg Memorial Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKA | 7 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 31 |
| FLA | 3 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win 47¢
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 2026 SRS rates UAPB -41.6 versus FAMU -46.0, a 4.4-point neutral-field advantage before the home adjustment.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-1 on this game · +72% return
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, BETALAB 6.0 +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- 2026 SRS rates UAPB -41.6 versus FAMU -46.0, a 4.4-point neutral-field advantage before the home adjustment.
- A transparent margin model blends the SRS gap with the last-five margin differential, then applies a 3-point home adjustment: projected UAPB margin +3.0.
- Full-game margin volatility is wide: the five-game margin samples include UAPB results from -40 to +31 and FAMU from -19 to +1.
BETALAB 6.0- Recent EPA/play favors UAPB: +0.142 offense versus FAMU -0.039 over 2026 games.
- UAPB leads recent success rate 44.5%-38.3%, explosiveness 15.3%-11.2%, and points per drive 2.70-1.39.
- Expected, not confirmed, lineups; official preview names Garrison Davis and Armond Parker, but FCS availability reporting is absent.
Long Way Home- Arkansas-Pine Bluff leads current-season offense at +0.142 EPA/play versus Florida A&M at -0.039.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff also leads in success rate (.445 vs .383), explosive rate (.153 vs .112), and SRS rating (-41.6 vs -46.0).
- Most likely loss: Florida A&M's home field and defensive pressure turn UAPB's recent offensive advantage into short fields or stalled drives.
- Game total points under 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FAMU scored 22.0 points/game over its last 3; UAPB scored 32.3; combined 54.3 sits below 55.5.
- Personnel lookup has expected QBs Armond Parker and Garrison Davis; both expected lineups were current this wake.
- Partial CFB tier: each team has only one 2026 FBS opponent, so the FBS efficiency sample is thin.
- Total points over 56.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures support the over read. Backing over 56.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book levels do not corroborate the depth direction: over 3, under 3. The venue's own book is the only reference.
- Game total over 55.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 scoring/defense blend projects 58.5 points versus the 55.5 line.
- UAPB averages 32.8 points and 0.142 offensive EPA/play; Florida A&M allows 34.0 points per game.
- Florida A&M allows 34.0 points and UAPB allows 31.3, creating a defensive-leakage path to 56+.
- Current-season offensive scoring averages combine for only 51.7 points; the six/seven-game sample is noisy.
Questions
Who won Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Florida A&M?
The Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 31–28 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.