Austin Peay vs. North AlabamaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBraly Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUST | 7 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 27 |
| NORT | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 50 (push at exactly 50) 49¢
Why House Rules likes it: 159 of 11,360 completed CFB games landed on exactly 50 points: 1.400% historical push mass.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-8 on this game · −45% return
- Game total over 48.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsTempo Gap, D1 WinnerWhy 2 models like it
Tempo Gap- Austin Peay posts 0.216 offensive EPA/play, 48.1% success and 2.56 points/drive; North Alabama's defense allows +0.030 EPA/play.
- Chris Parson and Destin Wade are the expected QBs, with no ruled-out status listed; Florence's forecast is mild, near 79°F with only a 20% shower chance.
- North Alabama's 1.89 points/drive and Austin's 18.4 points allowed per game can produce a one-sided, low-scoring Lions offense.
D1 Winner- Model total probability is 57%, versus roughly 50% at FanDuel -110 both ways.
- 2026 scoring averages combine for 59.1 points: Austin Peay 34.8, North Alabama 24.3.
- The total has moved from 49.5 to 48.5, so the market signal does not confirm the over.
- Austin Peay Governors −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Research grade 72/100 (B); clears the 70 minimum for a team-market play.
- Current-season margin differential is +14.66: Austin Peay +16.375 versus North Alabama +1.714.
- Margin variance is wide: Austin Peay's recent results include +56 and -19; normality is a simplifying assumption.
CFB HunterV2- Recent EPA profile: Austin Peay offense +0.1398/play versus North Alabama -0.0029.
- Austin Peay's 2026 scoring margin is +16.4 per game versus North Alabama's +1.7.
- Both quarterbacks are listed as expected, not confirmed, and neither team's official preview supplied an injury report.
- Game total under 49.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- The adjacent under 50.5 is -118 / 54.13¢, a 4.63-point ladder charge to cross 50; the CFB histogram has only 159 exact-50 finals versus 286 exact-44 and 221 exact-47.
- The 49.5 rung is the live main total; Pinnacle references under 49.5 at -115 and DraftKings/FanDuel at -110, supporting the direction without serving as the placement price.
- Most likely loss: the teams reach 50 or more; Austin Peay's .163 explosive-play rate and 34.75 recent points per game create a clear over path.
Long Way Home- season home/away scoring splits center the game around 45, 48 points, below 49.5.
- Austin Peay’s road offense averaged 23.7 points and its road defense allowed 18.0; North Alabama’s home offense averaged 27.8 and home defense allowed 20.3.
- Most likely loss: a turnover or special-teams return creates short fields and pushes the total above 49.5.
- Austin Peay Governors over North Alabama Lions by more than 10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle -126/-105 devigs to 52.1% Austin Peay cover probability; the venue price is materially cheaper.
- Austin Peay leads recent EPA/play 0.2155 to 0.0268, success rate 48.1% to 46.5%, and explosive rate 16.3% to 10.0%.
- SRS rates Austin Peay -5.9 versus North Alabama -23.4; research-quality score 78/100.
- Both college lineups are expected rather than official; FCS availability reporting is not covered, leaving late quarterback or key-player risk.
- Game total under 50 (push at exactly 50)+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 159 of 11,360 completed CFB games landed on exactly 50 points: 1.400% historical push mass.
- ProphetX offers under 50 at +106 (48.54¢) versus under 49.5 at +103; the whole rung adds a push option at a better payout.
- The under-50 contract wins at 49 or fewer, pushes at exactly 50, and loses at 51 or more.
- The 1.400% historical frequency is a broad CFB sample, not a game-specific projection.
- Austin Peay Governors spread −13−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Austin Peay -13 pushes if Austin Peay wins by exactly 13; adjacent -13.5 loses at that margin.
- ProphetX quotes -13 at +108 (48.08c) versus -13.5 at -114 (53.27c), a 5.19-point quote gap favoring the whole-number rung.
- The ticket loses if Austin Peay wins by 12 or fewer or loses; exactly 13 is a push, not a win.
Show all 8 picks
- Austin Peay Governors spread −13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The main ProphetX spread is -10.5, putting -13.5 three points beyond the main number and inside the 10-point tail cap; the -365 moneyline supports the favorite direction.
- Austin Peay’s 2026 profile: +0.216 offensive EPA/play and 34.75 points per game versus North Alabama’s +0.027 and 24.29; recent scoring margins are +16.4 and +1.7.
- Personnel gate checked: Chris Parson led Austin Peay’s latest passing row with 21 attempts and the current lineup lists him expected; the official North Alabama preview identifies Parson and Destin Wade for this matchup.
- Most likely loss: North Alabama holds Austin Peay to 13 points or fewer of margin, including a one-score game or upset.
- Over 48.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages combine for 59.0 points versus a 48.5 market total.
- Austin Peay ranks better in offensive EPA/play (+0.216) and points/drive (2.56); its 16.3% explosive rate can pressure this number.
- Both teams average 60+ offensive plays; their season pace profiles support enough possessions for a modest over edge.
- Quarterback listings are expected rather than officially confirmed: Chris Parson and Destin Wade remain the key availability check.
Questions
Who won Austin Peay vs. North Alabama?
The Austin Peay won 27–21 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.