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Baylor vs. KansasFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDavid Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Baylor4–2
24–25Final
Kansas2–4
Score by period
Team1234T
BAY7014324
KU7031525

Top model pick, graded

Won

Kansas Jayhawks to win 50¢

Why Drift likes it: Kansas averages 0.098 offensive EPA/play, .468 success and .181 explosive rate versus Baylor's .028, .449 and .122 across six games.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-11 on this game · −8% return

  1. Baylor Bears to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    4 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, Picks With Pink Grading System +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
    • Baylor's current FPI is 9.94 versus Kansas 3.90; Baylor's defense allows -0.094 EPA/play versus Kansas' +0.019.
    • Kansas is at home and has the stronger current offense: 0.192 offensive PPA versus Baylor's 0.105.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Our availability-adjusted estimate is 57.5%, a +7.96-point directional edge at the exact moneyline.
    • Baylor is 4-1 with a +18.6 average margin over its last five; Kansas is 1-4 with +0.6.
    • Kansas QB Cole Ballard is a game-time decision; Isaiah Marshall is only an expected replacement, creating critical matchup uncertainty.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied, 3 Baylor versus 3 Kansas; the core two-measure pattern qualifies, with the thin-side quote backed by more than $1,300.
    • Directional check: backing Baylor, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Independent Pinnacle is only a secondary near-coin-flip reference (Baylor -103/Kansas -107).
    • REFERENCE only: ProphetX depth is not independent order-flow data, and this hypothesis is unproven.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Current-season FBS-only defense favors Baylor: -0.102 EPA/play allowed versus Kansas -0.002; Baylor's recent form is 4-1 (+18.6 margin) versus Kansas 1-4 (+0.6).
    • Kansas has the stronger FBS offensive profile: 0.019 EPA/play and 17.0% explosiveness versus Baylor's 0.009 and 10.7%.
  2. Baylor Bears spread +1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Pinnacle main line is Baylor +1/Kansas -1 at -109/-103; devigged Baylor probability is 49.5%; exact +1.5 is absent, so this is a DERIVED REFERENCE.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas wins by at least two; its current offense leads Baylor in EPA/play, 0.098 to 0.029, and points per drive, 2.59 to 2.16.
    Key Number CFB
    • Baylor +1.5 is 51.22¢ (-105); Baylor moneyline is 49.75¢ (+101), so the cushion is priced only 1.47 points above outright win probability.
    • Baylor is 4-2 with a +15.3 six-game scoring margin; Kansas is 2-4 at +8.0, while Baylor's defense posts -0.1846 EPA/play versus Kansas at -0.0289.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas wins by two or more at home, with Baylor's road margin failing to hold.
  3. Kansas Jayhawks spread +1.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • Kansas +1.5 wins when Baylor wins by exactly one; Kansas +1 at -112 pushes on that outcome.
    • The 1.678% historical push rate is broad CFB evidence, not a Baylor-Kansas matchup-specific forecast.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Kansas averages +0.098 offensive EPA/play and a .468 success rate in 6 2026 games, versus Baylor's +0.028 and .449.
    • Kansas' explosive-play rate is .181 versus Baylor's .122; taking the home side plus 1.5 points captures that matchup edge.
    • Baylor's defense has allowed -0.185 EPA/play versus Kansas' -0.029, the clearest path to a Kansas offensive miss.
  4. Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks over 53.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Primm and mooseborzoii both hold Over 53.5; their CFB records are 97-15 and 18-6, respectively.
    • Kansas quarterback Cole Ballard is a game-time decision as of 8:30am PDT.
  5. Kansas Jayhawks to win
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kansas averages 0.098 offensive EPA/play, .468 success and .181 explosive rate versus Baylor's .028, .449 and .122 across six games.
    • Exact-rung movement favors Kansas: Pinnacle devigged 47.4% open to 49.3% current, +1.9p, still below the 53.0% rating.
    • Baylor's defense is materially better: -0.185 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Kansas's -0.029.
  6. Under 54.5 total
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle exact 54.5 is over -109 / under -107; devigged under is 49.8%, so model gap is 7.2 points.
    • Tier 2: Kansas's 26.3-second pace and Baylor/Kansas opponent-adjusted efficiency matchup restrain expected scoring chances despite 158.3 combined plays.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas's 18.1% current explosive-play rate creates chunk touchdowns or short fields.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Under 52.5 total
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession convergence: Baylor and Kansas average 85.3 and 73.0 plays, while Kansas's 26.3-second pace and Baylor's -0.185 defensive EPA/play profile restrain expected scoring chances.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas's 18.1% explosive-play rate exploits Baylor's weaker recent offensive efficiency matchup and pushes the total above 52.5.
  2. Baylor Bears YES to win the first half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • derived first-half win probability is 52%; Baylor's season defensive EPA allowed is -0.185 versus Kansas's -0.029.
    • Kalshi probabilities arrived as fractions: Baylor 0.455, Kansas 0.455, tie 0.075; three-way devig gives Baylor 46.2%.
    • This targets a high-base-rate first-half favorite, but high hit rate is not profitability; different risk profile, same discipline.
    • Kansas owns the stronger season offense: 0.098 EPA/play, 46.8% success, and 2.59 points per drive versus Baylor's 0.028, 44.9%, and 2.16.
  3. Kansas Jayhawks spread +1
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game FBS sample: Kansas offense is +0.0980 EPA/play, 46.8% successful, and 18.1% explosive.
    • Baylor offense is +0.0283 EPA/play, 44.9% successful, and 12.2% explosive; Kansas owns the efficiency profile.
    • Kansas averages 26.31 seconds/play and Baylor 22.47; Kansas's +0.059 PROE supports a competitive home script.
    • Most likely loss: Baylor's defense allows -0.1846 EPA/play and turns Kansas's offensive edge into stalled drives.
  4. 1Q total under 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The first-quarter projection is roughly 9, 10 points from the recent points-per-drive and pace inputs, below the 10.5 threshold.
    • Kansas's 26.1-second recent pace is materially slower than Baylor's 22.9, limiting early possessions on the home side.
    • Baylor's recent defensive EPA allowed averaged -0.203 per play, a strong opening-script suppressor.
    • A first quarter is a tiny sample: one explosive completion, turnover, or short field can add seven points immediately.
  5. Baylor Bears 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baylor's last five averaged 81.8 plays, 22.9 seconds per play, and 2.33 points per drive.
    • Kansas averaged 72.2 plays, 26.1 seconds per play, and 2.07 points per drive over the same span.
    • Baylor's recent defensive EPA allowed averaged -0.203 per play versus Kansas at -0.002.
    • Baylor's own probability is only 52%, so the edge is modest and first-half variance remains substantial.
  6. Game total under 53.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baylor last-five defense allowed -0.203 EPA/play; Kansas allowed -0.002.
    • Baylor’s recent scoring margin is +18.6 versus Kansas at +0.6 over five games.
    • PFF team defense grade: Baylor 91.5 versus Kansas 83.7; Kansas has allowed 35+ in its last two.
    • Kansas’ weak defense and Baylor’s 6-point outing last week create meaningful bounce-back variance.
  7. Total points under 54.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baylor allows -0.1846 defensive EPA/play; Kansas allows -0.0289, while Kansas’s slower pace limits possessions against Baylor’s strong defense.
    • PFF 2026 team card: Baylor defense 91.5 with 89.3 coverage; Kansas offense 82.0 but 57.8 pass-block grade.
    • College lineups are expected rather than officially posted; Isaiah Marshall is the expected Kansas QB, not a confirmed game-day listing.
  8. Baylor Bears over 1.5 first-half spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's fresh full-game Baylor -1 reference scales to a first-half mean of approximately +0.5 Baylor points.
    • Signed college margins across 2,629 2023, 25 regular-season finals have SD 22.13; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD approximately 15.65.
    • QB gate passes on plurality starts and live reporting for expected DJ Lagway and Isaiah Marshall, but the warehouse lineup status remains expected rather than official.
  9. Nik McMillan under 55.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 unders, 2 overs, 0 pushes in six 2026 games at the exact 55.5-yard threshold.
    • Beta-binomial posterior is 62.5% under versus FanDuel's -112 implied 52.8%: +9.7 points, +18.3% relative.
    • Baylor ranks 4th of 319 in 2026 defensive EPA/play allowed (-0.185); lower is better for the under.
    • Six games is not a full L10; the smoothed estimate is sample-sensitive and conviction is capped low.
  10. Game total under 54.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • A simple 2026 offense/defense midpoint projects 50.3 points: Baylor 27.0, Kansas 23.3.
    • Baylor allows 14.7 points per game and -0.1846 defensive EPA/play; its 22.47-second pace supports fewer possessions.
    • This is not a primary 41/44/47 key-number rung; the density advantage is smaller than a classic key crossing.

Questions

Who won Baylor vs. Kansas?

The Kansas won 25–24 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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