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BYU vs. UCFFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAcrisure Bounce House
BYU6–0
31–39Final
UCF3–3
Score by period
Team123456T
BYU77737031
UCF017707839

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 43.5 total 50¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-10 on this game · +6% return

  1. Over 43.5 total2 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
      • Most likely loss: BYU controls the game and UCF's offense stalls, leaving the total at 43 or fewer; BYU allowed 15.17 points per game in six current-season rows.
      ProphetX CFB Lines
      • Load-bearing chances: 128 combined current plays per game, 31.8/28.5-second average pace, and 5.54 combined raw points per drive; both teams average roughly 15% explosive plays.
      • Most likely loss: BYU's defense and UCF's inconsistent offense combine for fewer than 44 points.
    • BYU Cougars spread −7.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      ProphetX CFB Lines
      • Pinnacle same-rung reference is BYU -7.5 -109 / UCF +7.5 -103; devigged BYU probability is 50.7%.
      • Load-bearing case: BYU leads current opponent-adjusted offensive EPA/play 0.284 to 0.107 and points per drive 2.97 to 2.56; the key number is 7.
      • Most likely loss: BYU wins but UCF's home field and stronger current defensive EPA keep the margin at seven or fewer.
      Long Way Home
      • BYU is 5-0 with a +10.8 recent scoring margin; UCF is 2-3 at -1.4.
      • BYU posted +0.296 offensive EPA/play against Notre Dame and +0.196 against Iowa State; UCF recently posted -0.141 against Houston.
      • Most likely loss: BYU leads but UCF scores late and backdoor-covers +7.5 at home.
    • BYU Cougars to winFavorite2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsResting Money, Heater Two-Hour
      Why 2 models like it
      Resting Money
      • Book levels are tied, 3-3; the thin-at-quote plus deeper-total pattern supplies two agreeing measures, with no third-measure confirmation.
      • Directional check: backing BYU Cougars, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quotes 71.43 cents (-250 American).
      • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels.
      Heater Two-Hour
        • BYU’s projected lineup is not official; starting guard Kyle Sfarcioc is questionable.
      • BYU Cougars −10.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 42¢ on Tailgate

        Big School BoardNew model
        Why it likes it
        • Tailgate quotes BYU -10.5 at 42¢; UCF +10.5 is 59¢, a valid 1.01 combined check.
        • Pinnacle's live BYU -7 price is -114 versus UCF +7 at +102, devigging to 51.8% BYU.
        • Crossing the college 10-point key removes about 3.5 points, producing 48.3% fair at BYU -10.5.
        • The 48.3% rung estimate is a key-number adjustment, not a direct Pinnacle -10.5 quote.
      • Under 42.5 total
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 47¢ on Novig

        Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Pinnacle total 43.5: Over -105 / Under -111, devigged Under fair 50.7%.
        • No listed key number is crossed moving from 43.5 to 42.5; no margin-mass adjustment.
        • UCF's Barnett will not start; Keyone Jenkins has started the last four and is expected again.
        • UCF quarterback status remains expected rather than officially confirmed at this wake.
      • Legend Glasker over 4.5 receptions
        −100%Lost

        Taken at +134 on FanDuel

        Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Yards per target fell from 16.5 to 8.25 in the latest game while target share rose; production cooled without a role collapse.
        • PFF route rates were 100.0%, 93.8%, and 100.0% across those games; BYU pass attempts rose 24, 30, 37.
        • BYU is favored by 7.5 and could protect a lead with the run; four catches is the most likely miss.
      Show all 18 picks
      1. BYU Cougars over 24.5 team points
        +87%Won

        Taken at −115 on Pinnacle

        Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Adjusted EPA delta +0.335: BYU offense +0.284 minus UCF defensive EPA allowed -0.052 across six games each.
        • BYU converted 15 of 21 recent red-zone trips for touchdowns (.714); UCF allowed 11 of 22 (.500).
        • Both clocks are slow: BYU 31.78 and UCF 28.46 seconds per play versus the FBS median 26.86; over stake is capped at 0.5u.
      2. BYU Cougars −6.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

        Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Backing BYU -6.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; all three measures agree.
        • ProphetX is the only reference; resting orders can be stale, cancelled, or concentrated among few participants.
      3. Game total under 44.5 (no push; exactly 44 wins)
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

        House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • under 44.5 has no push; 44 is a win, while under 44 refunds exactly 44.
        • CFB finals 2019-25 show exact 44 at 150 of 2,565 games, a 5.848% push-point mass.
        • ProphetX quotes under 44 at -103 (50.74c) and under 44.5 at -109 (52.15c); adjusting the whole-number quote for 5.848% implies 53.62c for the half-point contract.
        • The 5.848% exact-total mass is broad CFB history, not a BYU-UCF-specific forecast.
      4. UCF +3.5
        +156%Won

        Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

        House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • by-exactly-3 occurred 165 of 3,660 FBS games (4.508%) from 2022-25 regular season/postseason.
        • ProphetX prices UCF +3 at -196 but the superior UCF +3.5 at +158: a 354-point American-price inversion across the adjacent rung.
        • The 4.508% push-mass estimate is all-game historical data, not matchup-specific.
      5. Game total over 43.5
        +96%Won

        Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

        Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • BYU and UCF efficiency cross-match projects approximately 51 points: BYU offense +0.284 EPA/play, UCF offense +0.107, with 33.5 and 31.7 points per game.
        • Personnel gate cleared: Bear Bachmeier led BYU's latest pass-attempt row; a live game preview expects him, while Alonzo Barnett is out and Keyone Jenkins is likely to start for UCF.
        • BYU's 2026 PFF card grades its offense 88.6 and defense 89.5 versus UCF at 68.8 and 85.5, supporting sustained BYU scoring pressure.
        • Most likely loss: UCF's home defense and a backup-quarterback game script hold the total at 43 or fewer.
      6. Game total over 43
        +85%Won

        Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

        ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • BYU averages 33.5 points and UCF 31.7 across six 2026 games; both teams’ average game totals clear 43.
        • BYU posts +0.236 offensive EPA/play and 13.9% explosiveness; UCF adds +0.026 EPA/play and 12.4% explosiveness.
        • Pinnacle over 43.5 moved from -105 to -114; DraftKings shows over 43.5 -115.
        • Projected QBs Bear Bachmeier and Keyone Jenkins are expected, not official; no fresh X availability report returned.
      7. BYU Cougars spread −7
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

        ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • BYU's FBS-opponent offense is +0.236 EPA/play versus UCF's +0.026.
        • BYU leads season success rate 51.0% to 45.8% and explosive rate 13.9% to 12.4%.
        • Form supports the side: BYU is 5-0 with +10.8 average margin over its last five; UCF is 2-3 at -1.4.
        • UCF is home, and its defense has the better season EPA-allowed figure: +0.023 versus BYU +0.049.
      8. UCF Knights spread +7
        +95%Won

        Taken at −105 on DraftKings

        Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • UCF has a clear rest edge: last played Oct. 10; BYU last played Oct. 17.
        • BYU leads season offense EPA/play .284 to .107, but UCF is at home with seven points.
        • Common TCU result: UCF won 21-13 at home; BYU won 17-10 on the road.
        • BYU's season profile is materially stronger: .531 offensive success and .011 defensive EPA allowed.
      9. BYU Cougars first-half spread NO 3.5
        +104%Won

        Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

        Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Pinnacle posts BYU -7 full game at -112; the half-game mean anchor is approximately BYU +3.5.
        • PROJECTION edge: mean +3.5 with SD 10.97 gives roughly 51.5% for BYU to finish the half at 3.5 points or fewer, versus a 49¢ NO price.
        • College key-number check: winning margins of 3 (259, 9.3%) and 7 (204, 7.3%) lead the histogram; 3.5 sits just beyond the 3-point mass and favors the NO side. Named edge class: PROJECTION.
        • The full-game sharp spread is an independent anchor, not a posted first-half line; the first-half mean could differ materially from +3.5.
      10. First-half total over 21.5 points
        +104%Won

        Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

        Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Six-game first-half sample: BYU 6.17 and UCF 5.83 drives, 12.00 combined.
        • First-half plays averaged 33.3 for BYU and 31.0 for UCF; season pace was 31.78 and 28.46 seconds/play.
        • Derived reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; this is capped at LEAN.
      11. Game total over 44
        +100%Won

        Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

        Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • season averages imply 51.0 combined points: BYU 33.5 scored/15.2 allowed, UCF 31.7 scored/21.7 allowed.
        • Recent FBS-only scoring still points to roughly 49.9; BYU owns +0.284 offensive EPA/play, while UCF's defense is -0.052.
        • BYU's defense allows only 15.2 points per game, and UCF quarterback uncertainty could suppress the home offense.
      12. Total Points over 43.5
        +96%Won

        Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

        Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • BYU averages 2.97 points/drive and UCF 2.56; both current quarterbacks are resolved by latest box leaders and live reporting.
        • BYU 25.5 plus UCF 17.5 team-total anchors sum to 43, keeping the 43.5 rung internally coherent.
        • Most likely loss: UCF's -0.052 average defensive EPA allowed suppresses BYU, leaving the game at 43 or fewer.

      Questions

      Who won BYU vs. UCF?

      The UCF won 39–31 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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