Chattanooga vs. Western CarolinaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalE.J. Whitmire Stadium
Chattanooga4–3
41–18Final
Western Carolina3–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHAT | 0 | 10 | 7 | 24 | 41 |
| WEST | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
Top model pick, graded
WonChattanooga Mocs to win 48¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Chattanooga's latest team grade is 89.3 versus Western Carolina's 78.7, including a 93.0, 81.7 defensive-grade edge.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-1 on this game · +74% return
- Chattanooga Mocs to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket
4 modelsCFB Heater, Brewing CFB Moneylines +2Why 4 models like it
CFB Heater- Chattanooga's latest team grade is 89.3 versus Western Carolina's 78.7, including a 93.0, 81.7 defensive-grade edge.
- Sportsbooks still make Western Carolina the favorite: consensus home probability 55.1%, with DraftKings -128 and FanDuel -140.
Brewing CFB Moneylines- Current model: Chattanooga 53.0% win probability after weighting its 14-point SRS edge, defense, and line play against WCU's QB advantage.
- Chattanooga's 2026 defense: -0.0736 PPA/play and .3365 success rate; WCU: +0.1364 PPA/play and .4858 defensive success rate.
- WCU's Lex Thomas has a major QB-production edge: 1,693 passing yards and .278 PPA versus Alberson's 602 and -.206 PPA.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Chattanooga's SRS is -22.4 versus Western Carolina's -36.4, a 14.0-point neutral-rating gap.
- Chattanooga is 4-3 with a +10.6 recent scoring-margin form mark; Western Carolina is 3-4 at -2.8.
- Western Carolina owns home field and the stronger recent offense; its 2026 season offense PPA averages +0.159 versus Chattanooga's -0.015.
BETALAB 6.0- SRS rates Chattanooga -22.4 versus Western Carolina -36.4, a 14.0-point neutral-field gap.
- 2026 seven-game EPA: Chattanooga offense -0.055 and defense allowed -0.136 versus Western Carolina +0.067 and +0.070.
- Both quarterbacks are expected rather than confirmed: Battle Alberson and Lex Thomas have no observed availability report.
- Chattanooga Mocs spread +2.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- 14.0-point SRS gap: Chattanooga -22.4 versus Western Carolina -36.4 before home-field adjustment.
- Recent eight-game defense: Chattanooga allowed -0.0736 EPA/play versus Western Carolina +0.0834.
- Chattanooga's recent offense was weaker: -0.0541 EPA/play versus Western Carolina +0.0186.
Long Way Home- Chattanooga's L5/L7 margins are +10.6/+7.4; Western Carolina's are -2.8/+0.1.
- Pinnacle shows the same +2.5 at -111, corroborating Chattanooga's side while ProphetX improves the price three cents.
- Most likely loss: Western Carolina converts home field into a win by three or more.
- Western Carolina Catamounts to win−100%Lost
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices Western Carolina -2.5 at 84.62¢ (-550) versus its moneyline at 67.74¢ (-210), a 16.88-point same-event gap.
- The spread ladder's implied cover probability is far above the moneyline's win probability; the ML is the cheaper route to the home winner if the related quotes are aligned.
- Most likely loss: Chattanooga wins outright; the apparent spread/ML gap may be a thin or misaligned live ladder rather than value.
Questions
Who won Chattanooga vs. Western Carolina?
The Chattanooga won 41–18 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.