Colorado vs. Oklahoma StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBoone Pickens Stadium

Colorado2–4

24–57Final

Oklahoma State4–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
COLO	14	10	0	0	24
OKST	7	19	11	20	57

Top model pick, graded

Won

Joseph Williams over 6.5 receptions +128

Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: Target share was 35.5% (11/31), 33.3% (16/48), and 38.1% (16/42); mean 35.6%, CV approximately 6.7%.

Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 13-16 on this game · −5% return

Oklahoma State Cowboys spread −13.52 models agree
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs
Why 2 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma State wins by 13 or fewer after Colorado turns its faster pace into enough possessions and late scoring.
Saturday Board Pairs
- Six-game FBS sample: Oklahoma State offense +0.271 EPA/play versus Colorado defense +0.013 allowed, a +0.258 matchup gap.
- Points per drive favors Oklahoma State 3.10 to 1.52, while both quarterbacks clear the personnel gate.
- Most likely loss: Colorado’s Isaac Wilson converts enough late possessions for a backdoor cover inside 14.
Colorado Buffaloes under 20.5 team points2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at +100 on BetMGM
2 modelsSaturday Scoring Environment, CFB HunterV2
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Scoring Environment
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta is -0.0444: Colorado offense -0.0398 minus Oklahoma State defensive EPA allowed +0.0046 across six games each.
- Colorado converted 8 of 18 red-zone trips for touchdowns (.444); the offense-side under trigger applies, despite Oklahoma State allowing 12 of 18 (.667).
- Oklahoma State's defense allowed touchdowns on 12 of 18 red-zone trips (.667), the clearest route to Colorado scoring above its model.
CFB HunterV2
- Colorado averages 19.5 points across six 2026 games; it stayed below 20.5 in four.
- Colorado's opponent-adjusted offense is -0.0398 EPA/play with a 43.6% success rate and 1.52 points per drive.
- Oklahoma State's recent defense has allowed 0.0468 EPA/play and surrendered 35 points to Houston last week.
Game total under 562 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs
- Oklahoma State's offense is strong but meets Colorado's -0.013 defensive EPA/play allowed; the matchup supports one-sided scoring rather than an automatic shootout.
- Colorado's defense allowed 35 points to Utah last week, while Oklahoma State's defense allowed 35 to Houston; recent finishing is not uniformly low.
Long Way Home
- Colorado averaged 14.7 points across its last three games, with -0.1005 offensive EPA/play and 42.4% success rate.
- A blended six-game/three-game form read puts the total near 54-55, below the 56-point contract.
- Oklahoma State averaged 38.3 points over its last three and its offense owns +0.3248 EPA/play in that span.
game total under 54.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, ProphetX Pairs
Why 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0
- Season scoring baselines project roughly 53 total points from 37.2/19.5 offense and 23.7/25.7 defense averages.
- Colorado averages -0.040 EPA/play and 1.52 points/drive across six games; sustained offensive inefficiency supports the under.
- Oklahoma State averages 0.271 EPA/play, 55.5% success, and 3.10 points/drive; its offense can clear the total alone.
ProphetX Pairs
- only scoring blend implies about 50.4 points: Oklahoma State offense/Colorado defense (32.8 and 26.6) and Colorado offense/Oklahoma State defense (13.0 and 28.4) averaged by matchup.
- Colorado's FBS offense is -0.121 EPA/play, 42.5% success, and 13.0 points per game across five FBS games; that is the key under driver.
- Oklahoma State's FBS offense is strong at +0.216 EPA/play, and Colorado allows 26.6 points per FBS game.
Joseph Williams over 6.5 receptionsHigh conviction
+128%Won
Taken at +128 on BetOnline
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Target share was 35.5% (11/31), 33.3% (16/48), and 38.1% (16/42); mean 35.6%, CV approximately 6.7%.
- Yards per target fell 7.94 to 5.81 to 4.91 while share stayed stable; the latest five-catch game reflects efficiency decline, not lost opportunity.
- Route rates were 90.9%, 94.9%, and 95.7%; the expected RWR logged 199 snaps across those three games.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma State leads early, Colorado's offense loses possessions, and Williams finishes six or fewer despite his share.
Colorado +10.5High conviction
−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Colorado +10.5 wins at exactly a 10-point Oklahoma State margin; adjacent Colorado +10 pushes at 10.
- exact 10-point final margins occurred 441 times, 4.252% of games.
- ProphetX quotes Colorado +10 at -240 (70.59¢) versus +10.5 at +127 (44.05¢), a 26.54-point inversion.
- The 4.252% exact-10 rate is all CFB 2014, 25, not team-specific or current-season data.

Show all 25 picks

Oklahoma State Cowboys −13.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Under 55.5 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Load-bearing total estimate is 149.8 combined plays, but Colorado is at -0.040 EPA/play and 1.52 points/drive; matchup scoring blend is about 53.0 points before a conservative blowout haircut.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma State's 37.2 points-per-game offense converts the high-play environment into 56 or more, aided by turnovers or short fields.
Under 55 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Load-bearing chances: 150.5 combined plays, roughly 22, 23 modeled possessions, and non-FCS combined PPD of 3.81 support a sub-55 scoring distribution.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma State's 16.0% explosive rate and Colorado turnovers create enough short fields to reach 56+.
Oklahoma State Cowboys spread −17.5
+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Novig
Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle main spread de-vigs to 50.2% for Oklahoma State -13.5.
- Key-number adjustment subtracts 3.5% at 14 and 2.5% at 17: fair Oklahoma State -17.5 is 44.2%.
- Fox Sports lists Isaac Wilson and Drew Mestemaker as the starting quarterbacks.
- This is a key-adjusted model number, not a directly posted Pinnacle -17.5 alternate price.
Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by over 9.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ESPN pregame model projects Oklahoma State by 10.925, 2.575 points below the sharp 13.5-point anchor.
- Oklahoma State's season scoring margin is +13.5, but Colorado's recent form and matchup model point closer to a one-score game.
- point margin distribution reweighted at college key numbers puts Colorado within 9.5 near 40% on the anchor alone; the adjusted estimate is about 45%.
- Colorado +9.5 loses at an Oklahoma State win by 10 or more; the Cowboys average 37.2 points per game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys first-half winner
−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- live Pinnacle first-half h2h is Oklahoma State -182 vs Colorado +139; de-vigged two-way OSU is about 60.6%.
- Season-to-date excluding this live game: OSU averages +0.271 offensive EPA/play, 55.5% success and 3.10 points/drive versus Colorado -0.040, 43.6% and 1.52.
- Colorado leads 14, 7 with 0:03 left in Q1; OSU must erase a seven-point deficit before halftime.
Colorado Buffaloes–Oklahoma State Cowboys under 55.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Their size is meaningful, and both positions are on the exact 55.5 total contract.
- The US quote has mostly followed the global signal; remaining lag is modest and near the three-cent limit.
Oklahoma State Cowboys 1st-half winnerFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Oklahoma State's last five average +0.341 offensive EPA/play and 3.55 points/drive; Colorado is -0.053 and 1.54.
- Recent form is 4-1, +19.0 points/game for Oklahoma State versus Colorado's 1-4, -7.6; both expected QBs are identified as Wilson and Mestemaker.
- The five-game sample includes uneven opponents, including Oklahoma State's Murray State game, and is not opponent-adjusted.
Total points under 57
−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; two measures support the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it read, with substantial raw stake.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides show three levels.
Oklahoma State Cowboys −14
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels were Oklahoma State 3 versus Colorado 3; two of three measures agree, while levels do not corroborate.
- Only the thin-quote and total-depth measures agree; the 3-versus-3 book-level tie weakens the signal.
Game total over 56
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX over 55 is -105 (51.22¢); moving to over 56 costs 3.83 probability points.
- Season scoring baseline is 56.7 points: Oklahoma State 37.2 ppg, Colorado 19.5; EPA/play is +0.2715 versus -0.0398.
- QB gate cleared: Isaac Wilson and Drew Mestemaker led latest attempts; fresh web depth charts list both starters.
- Most likely non-win: 56 or fewer; exactly 56 pushes rather than wins.
Total Points over 55
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Six-game 2026 scoring baseline is 56.7 points: Colorado 19.5 per game plus Oklahoma State 37.2.
- Most likely loss: Colorado’s -0.013 defensive EPA/play and 1.52 points per drive hold the Buffaloes below 20, leaving Oklahoma State to carry the ticket.
Oklahoma State Cowboys spread −15
+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Oklahoma State averages +0.216 FBS-only offensive EPA/play versus Colorado’s -0.121 across five games.
- Success rate is 52.8%, 42.5% and explosiveness 14.9%, 12.9% for Oklahoma State and Colorado.
- Form supports the side: Oklahoma State is 4-1 with a +19.0 recent margin; Colorado is 1-4 at -7.6.
- The 15-point cover is vulnerable to Colorado’s late backdoor score even if Oklahoma State controls the game.
Colorado Buffaloes first-half spread over 2.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season cross-check: Oklahoma State 3.10 points/drive and +0.271 EPA/play; Colorado 1.52 and -0.040, supporting the sharp direction.
- At Colorado 14, 7 with 0:03 Q1, conditional halftime mean is Colorado +4.38; remaining-quarter SD 11.29; derived probability 56.6%.
- The first-half market already moved sharply from roughly 68¢ pregame to 51¢ after live events; much of the information is priced.
Game 1st-quarter total over 13.5 points
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The first-quarter projection is approximately 45-50% of the roughly 31-point first-half estimate, putting the mean near 14-15.5 points.
- Both recent offenses show aggressive passing intent: Oklahoma State +10.4% PROE and Colorado +14.6% PROE, increasing early-script scoring opportunity.
- Oklahoma State's .575 success rate and .174 explosive rate provide a strong path to an early touchdown against a Colorado defense allowing positive recent defensive EPA.
- A first quarter has only a handful of possessions; one three-and-out, red-zone stall, or missed kick can dominate the result.
Game 1st-half total over 30.5 points
+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- A conservative six-drive estimate from recent points-per-drive averages produces roughly 31 first-half points: Oklahoma State 3.55 PPD and Colorado 1.54.
- Oklahoma State's .575 success rate, +.341 offensive EPA/play, and .174 explosive rate support efficient early scoring rather than relying only on late-game pace.
- Colorado's recent .146 PROE indicates an aggressive opening posture; even with its .434 success rate, that creates first-half scoring chances.
- Colorado's 1.54 recent points/drive and .434 success rate can produce several empty possessions and leave the game below the number.
First-half total over 27.5 points
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- six-game 2026 window averages 75.7 Colorado plays and 74.8 Oklahoma State plays; median blended pace is 25.24 seconds/play.
- Derived first-half reference is scaled from a full-game sharp total, not an independent first-half sharp quote.
Colorado Buffaloes spread +15.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 EPA supports Oklahoma State, but favors taking the full cushion: OSU offense is +0.271 EPA/play versus Colorado -0.040; PFF overall grades are 91 versus 81.
- DraftKings and Pinnacle place the main spread at Oklahoma State -13.5, corroborating the market location; +15.5 remains within the 10-point alternate cap.
- QB gate cleared by latest pass-attempt leaders plus a fresh matchup check: Isaac Wilson and Drew Mestemaker are the identified quarterbacks, with no ruled-out or open-battle flag.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma State wins by 16 or more, with its high-efficiency offense turning the home-field edge into separation.
Oklahoma State Cowboys spread −14
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle supports the side at Oklahoma State -13.5 (-107); ProphetX offers the plus-money -14 rung.
- Oklahoma State posts +0.271 offensive EPA/play and 55.5% success rate through six games, versus Colorado at -0.040 and 43.6%.
- The season margin gap is 19.7 points: Oklahoma State +13.5 versus Colorado -6.2; Colorado's official report lists RB Micah Welch and three WRs out.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma State wins but by 13 or fewer, with Colorado backdooring the number late.

Questions

Who won Colorado vs. Oklahoma State?

The Oklahoma State won 57–24 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.