Dartmouth vs. ColumbiaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLawrence A. Wien Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DART | 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 38 |
| COLU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDartmouth −2.5 57¢
Why House Rules likes it: Exact 3-point CFB margin occurred 955 of 10,371 games from 2014-25 regular/postseason: 9.2% empirical push mass.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-4 on this game · −65% return
- Game total under 45.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- Under 45.5 wins at 45; under 45 pushes at 45.
- ProphetX quotes under 45.5 at +113 (46.95¢) versus under 45 at -280 (73.68¢).
- Expected, not confirmed, depth-chart availability leaves late personnel uncertainty.
Key Number CFB- The 28.36-point probability gap between the two under quotes vastly exceeds the empirical mass expected between 45.5 and 46.5.
- Five-game offense/defense scoring midpoint is about 48.7 points; the efficiency read does not support an uncontrolled Columbia-Dartmouth shootout.
- Most likely loss: Columbia's 27.2-point offense and Dartmouth's 22.8 points allowed produce enough scoring for 46 or more.
- Dartmouth Big Green @ Columbia Lions total under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dartmouth's offense averages 0.097 EPA/play and 2.024 points/drive, but produced 7 and 27 points in its last two games.
- Expected QBs are Chase Goodwin and Grayson Saunier; New York forecast is mostly sunny with light, variable wind.
- Both defenses allow positive EPA: Dartmouth +0.146 and Columbia +0.167 per play; explosive plays can break the under.
- Dartmouth −2.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Exact 3-point CFB margin occurred 955 of 10,371 games from 2014-25 regular/postseason: 9.2% empirical push mass.
- No independent sharp reference was used; this is a ProphetX self-coherence read, not a projection model.
- Columbia Lions to win−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Columbia is 4-1 over its last five with a -1.0 average margin; Dartmouth is 2-3 at -3.6.
- Columbia averages 27.2 points and 48.7% success versus Dartmouth's 19.2 points and 44.2% success.
- Most likely winning path: Columbia's stronger recent offense turns home field into a one-score game or outright win.
- Most likely loss: Dartmouth's defense, allowing 22.8 points per game versus Columbia's 28.2, controls the matchup.
Questions
Who won Dartmouth vs. Columbia?
The Dartmouth won 38–18 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.