Georgetown vs. William & MaryFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalWalter J. Zable Stadium
Georgetown2-4
28–27Final
William & Mary3-4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEOR | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| WILL | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 47.5 55¢
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Independent total projection 50.97: 2026 season offense/defense blend 51.13 and L5 blend 50.80.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · +4% return
- Game total under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Novig
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- Own under probability 56%, 10 points above Novig's 46¢ takeable price at 47.5.
- Both offenses grade below average: Georgetown -0.00 EPA/play and 43.4% success; W&M -0.14 EPA/play and 40.2% success.
- Both defenses allow positive EPA/play, and W&M has allowed 37.1 points per game, creating over risk despite the low offensive baselines.
Key Number CFB- Georgetown's last-six game totals averaged 44.8, while William & Mary's offense has -0.17 EPA/play and a .397 success rate this season.
- William & Mary allows 37.1 points per game this season, and defensive volatility can create short fields or explosive scores.
- Georgetown Hoyas to win+178%Won
Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Georgetown's recent EPA/play is -0.00 versus William & Mary's -0.16; success rate is 43.4% versus 39.3%.
- William & Mary is home and has 14 days rest versus Georgetown's 7, a meaningful situational counterweight.
Long Way Home- my Georgetown win estimate is 39% versus ProphetX's 36.5¢ break-even at +174.
- Georgetown posted +0.05 and +0.03 offensive EPA/play in its two latest games, winning both by double digits.
- Most likely loss: William & Mary's home advantage and market-implied strength hold, with the Tribe winning as roughly a 65% consensus favorite.
- Game total over 47.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent total projection 50.97: 2026 season offense/defense blend 51.13 and L5 blend 50.80.
- Research grade 73/100: B-grade total with complete season/L5 inputs, reduced for thin samples and missing movement.
- Georgetown's L5 scoring average is only 20.0; a repeat of its 14-point games loses despite the projection.
- William & Mary −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied, 3 versus 3, so the third measure does not corroborate. Directional check: backing William & Mary -6.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference is the only reference; there is no independent sharp confirmation of the order-flow hypothesis.
- Total points under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- William & Mary home offense averages 21.0 points with -0.16 EPA/play and 0.41 success rate across three 2026 home games.
- Georgetown’s last two games totaled 44 and 35 points; William & Mary’s last two totaled 31 and 55.
- Near-identical SRS ratings (William & Mary -40.8, Georgetown -42.2) do not support the market’s assumed scoring separation.
- Most likely loss: William & Mary creates one or two explosive or short-field scores and the game reaches 48 points.
Questions
Who won Georgetown vs. William & Mary?
Georgetown won 28-27 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.