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Georgia State vs. Arkansas StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCentennial Bank Stadium
Georgia State4–2
32–38Final
Arkansas State3–4
Score by period
Team1234T
GAST01471132
ARST77141038

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game 1st-half total under 30.5 points 53¢

Why Kickoff Script likes it: Five-game averages project a first-half scoring baseline below 30.5: 32.0 and 23.2 full-game points per team.

Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-11 on this game · −23% return

  1. Georgia State Panthers to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsResting Money, Key Number CFB +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Backing Georgia State Panthers, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two of three measures agree; the book-level count is tied rather than corroborating Georgia State.
    Key Number CFB
    • Georgia State leads 2026 offense EPA/play, +0.1848 to +0.1300, and defensive EPA allowed, -0.0307 to +0.1783.
    • The Panthers are 4-2 with a +12.5 average scoring margin; Arkansas State is 3-4 at +0.9 through the latest preview.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas State wins outright; a moneyline has no spread protection in a matchup priced near a field goal.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • FBS-only 2026 averages favor Georgia State: +0.1267 offensive EPA/play vs +0.0873, and +0.0286 defensive EPA/play vs Arkansas State +0.1946 (lower is better).
    • The gap is +0.0394 offensive EPA/play and roughly 0.166 defensive EPA/play against a modest -126 favorite price.
    • Arkansas State is home and owns the better FBS success rate (.5097 vs .4845), so the EPA gap may overstate the matchup.
    Long Way Home
    • own win estimate 63% versus ProphetX's 56.14¢ price; Pinnacle also favors Georgia State at -133.
    • Georgia State leads the season EPA profile: +0.185 offensive EPA/play versus Arkansas State's +0.130, and -0.031 defensive EPA/play allowed versus +0.178.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas State's home field and turnover variance convert a close game into a Red Wolves outright win.
  2. Game total over 58.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Combined season scoring averages are 63.9 points (Georgia State 36.5, Arkansas State 27.4) versus 58.5.
    • Georgia State posted +0.1848 offensive EPA/play, 49.9% success and a 2.882 points-per-drive average in the queried 2026 sample.
    • Georgia State’s defense was materially better recently (-0.0307 defensive EPA allowed/play season-to-date), which can suppress Arkansas State’s scoring.
    Long Way Home
    • the location split blend projects 64.7 points, about 6.2 above ProphetX's 58.5.
    • Arkansas State home games have averaged 65 total points across three games; Georgia State road games have averaged 64.3 across three.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls and the game finishes below 59 despite the high split averages.
  3. Georgia State Panthers spread −32 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Georgia State leads 2026 offense in EPA/play, 0.185 to 0.130, and explosive rate, 15.6% to 12.8%.
    • Defense separates the teams: Georgia State allows -0.031 EPA/play versus Arkansas State's +0.178, with points allowed 24.0 to 26.6.
    • Cameran Brown and Trey Owens are expected, not official; no Sun Belt report or game-specific X availability signal returned.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game FBS sample: Georgia State posts +0.1848 offensive EPA/play against Arkansas State’s +0.1783 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Georgia State’s defense allows -0.0307 EPA/play against Arkansas State’s +0.1300 offense, creating the stronger two-way EPA profile.
    • Georgia State’s 29.31-second pace and Arkansas State’s positive 0.1126 PROE can create a volatile possession script.
  4. Georgia State Panthers spread −6.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Georgia State's 2026 profile is stronger: +0.185 offensive EPA/play and -0.031 defensive EPA allowed versus Arkansas State's +0.130 and +0.178.
    • Both Trey Owens and Cameran Brown are live-listed starters, but college lineups remain expected rather than officially confirmed; late warmup scratches are unknown.
  5. Georgia State Panthers −2.5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  6. Game 1st-half total under 30.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game averages project a first-half scoring baseline below 30.5: 32.0 and 23.2 full-game points per team.
    • Georgia State averages 0.127 offensive EPA/play; Arkansas State's recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.154, but the matchup still needs sustained drives.
    • Arkansas State's 0.087 offensive EPA/play meets Georgia State's +0.029 defensive EPA allowed profile, limiting the home side's expected scoring rate.
    • Arkansas State's 25.8-second recent pace and both teams' above-average passing tendencies can create extra first-half possessions.
Show all 13 picks
  1. First-half total over 30.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 pregame: Arkansas State averaged 64.7 plays at 28.33 seconds; Georgia State 71.5 at 29.31.
    • Baseline PPD 2.564/2.882; PROE and explosive rates (.1125/.0473; .1279/.1561) produce an 11.1% uplift.
    • Brown and Owens are expected rather than officially confirmed; a late quarterback change breaks the projection.
  2. Total points under 60
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 60 has 3 book levels versus Over 2; all three measures agree, with the contract priced at 54.75¢ (-121).
    • Backing Under 60, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX is the sole reference; no independent sharp confirmation was used.
  3. Total Points over 58
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 samples: Georgia State/Arkansas State average 29.31/28.33 seconds per play and +4.7%/+11.3% PROE.
    • Explosive rates are 15.6%/12.8%; success rates are 49.9%/52.2%; Arkansas State allows +0.178 EPA/play.
    • Current scoring averages combine for 63.9 points across six Georgia State and seven Arkansas State games.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia State's -0.033 defensive EPA/play suppresses Arkansas State below 25 points.
  4. Arkansas State Red Wolves +2.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Butch Jones' historical head-coaching record is 110-91 (.547) versus Dell McGee's 4-20 (.167), clearing the +15-point gate.
    • Arkansas State has a +3 season turnover margin; Georgia State is -4.
    • Arkansas State has 35 penalties for 317 yards in 7 games; Georgia State has 40 for 343 yards in 6.
    • Arkansas State is only 3-4, while Georgia State is 4-2; recent form favors Georgia State 3-2 to 2-3.
  5. Georgia State Panthers first-half spread YES 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date points-for/against blend gives Georgia State +5.8 full-game points; Pinnacle’s -2.5 anchor gives a conservative midpoint of +2.1 at halftime.
    • 3,594 FBS regular-season finals from 2023, 26 produce margin SD 15.29; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.81, not 7.65.
    • Pinnacle’s full-game -2.5 agrees directionally with Georgia State; exact college margin masses are 3 points (350) and 7 (276).
    • No independent first-half sharp rung is posted; adjacent Kalshi prices are venue self-reference, so this derived edge is capped at LEAN.
  6. Game total over 59
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both quarterbacks cleared the personnel gate: latest boxes lead with Cameran Brown and Trey Owens, and same-day search results list both as starters.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls in the red zone and the game lands 59 or below.
  7. Total Points over 59
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Scoring baselines combine for 63.9 points across six Georgia State and seven Arkansas State games; Arkansas State allows +0.178 EPA/play.
    • Internal ladder agrees: full-game over 58 is -108/$4,447 and over 59 is +106/$4,433; team-total centers are Georgia State over 30.5 (-110/$1,000) and Arkansas State over 28.5 (-108/$1,000), summing to 59.
    • the existing over 58 is held; the ProphetX number has moved to 59, so this is the permitted same-side new-line add. Cameran Brown and Trey Owens are cross-checked by the latest passing boxes and current matchup reporting.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia State's -0.031 defensive EPA/play suppresses Arkansas State, while the Red Wolves' recent 23-point output leaves the game at 59 or fewer.

Questions

Who won Georgia State vs. Arkansas State?

The Arkansas State won 38–32 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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