Howard vs. Morgan StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHughes Stadium (MD)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOWA | 0 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| MORG | 6 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonHoward Bison +7.5 53¢
Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX self-reference: Howard +7.5 is 53.05¢ versus Howard +7 at 54.95¢; the dominant half-point rung is 1.90¢ cheaper.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · +2% return
- Morgan State Bears to win−100%Lost
Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0- Morgan is 5-2 with +13.0 average margin over its last five; Howard is 2-3 at -16.4.
- Morgan recent offense: +0.1956 EPA/play, 47.0% success, 17.4% explosive plays; Howard: -0.1495, 35.3%, 10.9%.
- Both expected lineups are unconfirmed and the FCS feed has no official injury report; Howard's availability picture is unresolved.
Long Way Home- Morgan averages 28.9 points and a +1.7 margin; Howard averages 19.6 and a -11.7 margin, with Morgan at home.
- Sportsbook prices support Morgan but no same-line Pinnacle moneyline is posted; this is a model-led projection, not a sharp-reference claim.
- Most likely loss: Howard's better defensive EPA profile slows Morgan and turns this into a one-score outright upset risk.
- Howard Bison +7.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX self-reference: Howard +7.5 is 53.05¢ versus Howard +7 at 54.95¢; the dominant half-point rung is 1.90¢ cheaper.
- Expected lineups are projected rather than confirmed, and no official late-availability report is served here.
- Howard Bison to win+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Morgan State Bears −7.0−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency: Morgan's 2026 per-play success rate is about 45.0% versus Howard's 35.7%; PFF grades favor Morgan 81.2, 67.3 overall and 90.3, 68.8 on special teams.
- QB/Injury: Morgan starter Cameron Edge produced 7.95 yards per attempt with 5 TD and 3 INT over his last three; Howard's expected Ja'Shawn Scroggins produced 5.69 YPA with 2 TD and 1 INT.
- Market family leans Morgan: the main spread remains clustered around Morgan -7, with FanDuel's -7.5 price moving from +100 to -105.
- Both college lineups are expected rather than confirmed; Howard's Scroggins projection is especially relevant, although he is an experienced recent starter.
- Morgan State Bears spread −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Morgan State's home sample averages 41.5 points scored and 13.5 allowed across two games.
- Howard's five road games average 17.0 points scored and 34.8 allowed; its road EPA is -0.124 per play.
- Morgan State's home offense is +0.279 EPA/play with a .467 success rate, versus Howard's .356 road success rate.
- Most likely loss: Howard stays within one score through late possessions, making the +106 spread price look attractive but losing at -8 or worse.
- Howard Bison spread +7.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Howard's FBS defense has allowed +0.464 EPA/play versus Morgan State's +0.651, a 0.187 EPA/play gap toward the underdog.
- Howard's FBS offensive EPA (-0.358) is close to Morgan State's (-0.324), so the matchup profile is tighter than Morgan's moneyline implies.
- the captured main sportsbook spread is Morgan State -7; ProphetX supplies Howard +7.5, adding half-point cushion.
- Partial tier: only two Howard and one Morgan FBS-opponent games; opponent mix makes the EPA comparison volatile.
Questions
Who won Howard vs. Morgan State?
The Howard won 26–20 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.