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Indiana vs. MichiganFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMichigan Stadium
Indiana6-1
13–6Final
Michigan4-2
Score by period
Team12345T
IU3300713
MICH003306

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 42.5 −110

Why Tempo Gap likes it: Opponent-adjusted blend produces 2.45 Indiana points per drive and 1.85 Michigan points per drive: 39.5 fair total versus 42.5.

Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-9 on this game · −10% return

  1. Indiana Hoosiers −7.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    3 modelsEPA Mismatch, Rnj +1
    Why 3 models like it
    EPA Mismatch
    • Current DraftKings price is Indiana -7.5 at -105; Pinnacle's fair anchor gives the cover 48.4%.
    • Season EPA: Indiana offense +0.33/play and defense -0.03 allowed versus Michigan +0.05 and -0.01.
    • Michigan has home-field advantage and the market still prices Indiana's cover near 48%, so the model-market gap may be overstated.
    Rnj
    • Neutral rating differential: FPI 14.4, SP+ 10.6, SRS 16.7; mean 13.9 points.
    • ESPN game model projects Indiana by 13.02 after matchup and home-context adjustment; fair margin rounds to 13.0.
    • Michigan is home, and its 93.0 PFF defense/90.4 coverage grade is stronger than Indiana's 91.2/76.6.
    D1 Winner
    • Indiana owns a +0.28 offensive EPA/play gap and a +0.02 defensive EPA/play edge.
    • Indiana leads success rate 52.6% to 46.5%, explosive rate 17.1% to 11.1%.
    • Indiana is a road favorite in Michigan Stadium, so home-field variance can compress the margin.
  2. Indiana Hoosiers spread −73 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Indiana’s 7-game sample: +0.33 EPA/play, 52.6% success, 17.1% explosive; Michigan’s 6-game sample: +0.05, 46.5%, 11.1%.
    • Defense context favors Indiana’s matchup: Indiana allows -0.03 EPA/play, while Michigan allows -0.01; the offensive gap is substantially larger than the defensive gap.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan’s 93.0 defensive grade and home field suppress Indiana’s explosive offense into a one-score game.
    Key Number CFB
    • Indiana's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.33 versus Michigan's +0.05; explosive rate is 17.1% versus 11.1%.
    • Indiana's defense allows -0.03 EPA/play versus Michigan's -0.01; recent scoring margins are +23.7 versus +6.5.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan's home defense holds Indiana below a seven-point margin; -7 is an unforgiving push/lose boundary.
    Long Way Home
    • Indiana averages 0.33 offensive EPA/play, 36.6 points and 6-1; Michigan averages 0.05 EPA/play, 22.7 points and 4-2.
    • Timing support: Indiana's availability report lists none out/questionable; Michigan has seven out and seven questionable in the Oct. 21 report.
    • Michigan is at home, and a seven-point game can land inside the number even if Indiana wins.
  3. Indiana Hoosiers to winFavorite2 models agree
    +34%Won

    Taken at −295 on williamhill_us

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, BETALAB 6.0
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Indiana rates #5 in FPI (25.32) versus Michigan #32 (10.91); SP+ is 23.6 versus 13.0 and SRS is 20.5 versus 3.8.
    • Recent form favors Indiana: 6-1, +23.7 points per game margin and +0.32 offensive EPA/play over the recent window versus Michigan's 4-2, +6.5 and +0.04.
    • College starters are expected rather than confirmed; Michigan has Enow Etta and Rod Moore listed Game Time Decision and several same-day outs.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Model estimate: Indiana win probability 81%; fair decimal odds 1.23 versus a 72.5% raw break-even price.
    • Indiana averages 0.33 EPA/play, 52.6% success, 17.1% explosive plays and 3.36 points/drive across seven 2026 games.
    • Michigan has home field and can outperform its six-game efficiency sample in a rivalry-like Big Ten spot.
  4. Indiana Hoosiers spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle exact rung is Indiana -7.5 +101 / Michigan +7.5 -113; devigged Indiana cover probability is 48.4%.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan's home field, defensive pressure, and a strong red-zone game keep Indiana at seven points or fewer.
  5. Under 42.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted blend produces 2.45 Indiana points per drive and 1.85 Michigan points per drive: 39.5 fair total versus 42.5.
    • Indiana averages 0.33 offensive EPA/play, but scored only 15 against Ohio State; Michigan averages 0.05 EPA/play and 1.91 points/drive.
    • Josh Hoover is Indiana's expected QB; Michigan announced Tommy Carr over Bryce Underwood on Wednesday, while Frazier and Sprague are out on the offensive line.
    • Carr replacing Underwood could improve Michigan's passing efficiency; Carr's current sample is only 7 attempts in the Penn State game.
  6. Under 42.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair under probability is 55.0%; expected value is approximately +11.1% at 49.5¢.
    • Pinnacle exact 42.5 is over -112 / under -104; devigged under probability is 49.1%, a 5.9-point model gap.
    • Possession case: 123.5 combined current plays, roughly 29.7 seconds per play, and Michigan's 11.1% explosive rate constrain the total.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's 17.1% explosive rate produces short fields or chunk scores early.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Indiana Hoosiers spread −11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s 7.5-point anchor is 49.5% fair for Indiana after de-vigging -108/-104.
    • Moving to -11.5 crosses the 10-point margin key; the brief’s 3.5% mass adjustment gives roughly 46.0% fair.
    • Tommy Carr is reportedly expected to start for Michigan; Pinnacle moved from -116 to -108 on the same 7.5-point spread, while current Pinnacle, DraftKings, and FanDuel all show 7.5.
    • Carr is not officially confirmed; the warehouse projection still listed Bryce Underwood as Michigan’s QB on 10/23.
  2. Game total under 40.5 points
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana's defense allows 12.9 points per game and Michigan's allows 16.2 through the latest 2026 data.
    • The latest listed conference-game totals were modest: Indiana-Ohio State 34, Indiana-Nebraska 37, Michigan-Penn State 39, and Michigan-Minnesota 34.
    • Michigan's reported quarterback change to Tommy Carr follows a 5-for-7, 47-yard relief outing; the offense averaged only 22.7 points before this game.
    • Indiana's full-season offense averages 36.6 points and has produced several explosive nonconference totals.
  3. Indiana Hoosiers wins by over 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana's 2026 margin averages +23.7 versus Michigan's +6.5 through the latest games.
    • Indiana leads Michigan in offensive EPA/play, 0.33 to 0.05; its defense also has the better EPA profile.
    • A current report says Tommy Carr replaces Bryce Underwood; Carr went 5-for-7 while Underwood went 5-for-11 with two interceptions last week.
    • Michigan's depth-chart feed still projects Bryce Underwood, so the quarterback report and warehouse status conflict.
  4. Indiana Hoosiers first-half winner
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana leads 6-1 at halftime this season; its offense averages 0.33 EPA/play, 52.6% success and 3.36 points per drive versus Michigan's 0.05, 46.5% and 1.91.
    • This is a high-base-rate first-half favorite, but high hit rate is not profitability; the 7-point model-over-price cushion clears the raised derived-reference bar. Different risk profile, same discipline.
    • This is a derived, not genuine first-half sharp reference; first-half variance and the scaling assumption are the main uncertainties.
  5. Over 42.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana averages +0.33 offensive EPA/play, 52.6% success and 3.36 points/drive; Michigan is at +0.05, 46.5% and 1.91.
    • Both defenses are efficient, but the offense matchup and calm conditions project roughly 45 total points.
    • Rest is even: both teams last played October 17, providing seven days before kickoff.
    • Carr's first career start could produce a low Michigan scoring output and sink the over.
  6. Total points under 42.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 42 pushes or refunds at exactly 42; under 42.5 wins at exactly 42 and never pushes.
    • ProphetX prices under 42.5 at 49.75c (+101), exactly the same as under 42 at 49.75c (+101).
    • Historical exact-total frequency may not match this matchup's scoring distribution; no independent projection is used.
  7. Indiana Hoosiers spread −5.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana averages +0.33 offensive EPA/play, -.033 defensive EPA allowed and .526 success rate across 7 FBS games; Michigan is +.054, -.009 and .465 across 6.
    • Likeliest loss path: Michigan wins outright or loses by 1-5; the sharper reference is Michigan +7.5 at -108.
  8. Josh Hoover over 210.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Supported model: 63.0% over from an empirical-Bayes yardage distribution; current exact-line sample is 5 overs, 2 unders.
    • FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%; model edge is +10.2 percentage points and +19.3% relative.
    • Hoover has 1,660 passing yards in seven 2026 regular-season games, averaging 237.1; he cleared 210.5 five times.
    • The current sample is seven games, not a full L10; comparable-season fallback caps conviction at low.
  9. Michigan +7.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  10. Total points over 40.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live reference is over 43.5 at -104; ProphetX's threshold is three points lower, but its rechecked price is materially more pessimistic.
    • Live through 3:44 of Q1: Indiana leads only 3-0, while 24 logged plays have already shown explosive-play paths from both offenses.
    • Indiana recorded a 17-yard rush and Michigan a 15-yard rush before the current 3-0 score; one sustained drive or defensive short field can clear 40.5.
    • Most likely loss: both offenses remain inefficient after the early sample, producing a 17-20 type finish.

Questions

Who won Indiana vs. Michigan?

Indiana won 13-6 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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