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Iowa vs. MinnesotaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHuntington Bank Stadium
Iowa5–1
10–13Final
Minnesota4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
IOWA030710
MINN307313

Top model pick, graded

Won

Minnesota Golden Gophers to win 27¢

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 10-14 on this game · −15% return

  1. Iowa Hawkeyes −7.55 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    5 modelsEPA Mismatch, Rnj +3
    Why 5 models like it
    EPA Mismatch
    • Season EPA favors Iowa: +0.142 offensive EPA/play versus Minnesota +0.112, and -0.078 defensive EPA allowed versus +0.059.
    • Iowa leads season success rate 48.5%-47.9%, explosive rate 14.3%-12.8%, and points per drive 2.55-2.17.
    • Iowa's last-three defensive EPA allowed is worse than Minnesota's, 0.152 versus -0.011, a meaningful recent-form warning.
    Rnj
    • Five FBS games each: Iowa margin +8.8, Minnesota -2.0; season differential favors Iowa by 10.8.
    • Latest three FBS games: Iowa +0.33, Minnesota -6.33; recent differential still favors Iowa by 6.67.
    • Iowa's recent defensive EPA allowed worsened to +0.1522 versus Minnesota's -0.0112; opponent strength helps explain it but does not erase it.
    D1 Winner
    • Iowa leads current-season EPA/play, success rate, line yards, and PFF overall grade.
    • Iowa's 90.0 defensive grade and 82.0 run-block grade materially exceed Minnesota's 83.1 and 59.4.
    • Minnesota's home field and a 27.13-second recent pace can create extra possessions.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Iowa leads Minnesota by 13.3 FPI points, 10.5 SP+ points, and 13.5 SRS points before home-field adjustment.
    • Recent EPA profile favors Iowa: +0.1284 offensive EPA/play versus Minnesota +0.0823; Iowa is 5-1 versus Minnesota 4-2.
    • Both college lineups are expected rather than confirmed; late personnel changes could move the margin materially.
  2. Iowa Hawkeyes to winFavorite3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −290 on DraftKings

    3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Iowa leads 2026 form 5-1 with 186-87 points; Minnesota is 4-2 with 173-131 points.
    • Season EPA favors Iowa: +0.142 offensive EPA/play and -0.078 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Minnesota +0.112 and +0.059.
    • Iowa's expected lineup is not official; Hank Brown is projected at quarterback and college starters can change late.
    Key Number CFB
    • Iowa averages +0.142 EPA/play offense and -0.078 defense allowed versus Minnesota +0.112 and +0.059; Iowa also leads in success (.485 vs .479) and explosiveness (.143 vs .128).
    • Iowa is 5-1 with a 186-87 scoring margin through six games; Minnesota is 4-2 at 173-131, leaving Iowa with the stronger current margin profile.
    • Iowa's quarterback workload recently shifted to Hecklinski; the live report says Hank Brown and Hecklinski will both take meaningful snaps over the season.
    Long Way Home
    • SHARP REFERENCE; OneLink not applicable to a single-leg ticket.
    • Iowa's six-game profile leads Minnesota by 9.5 margin points (16.5 vs 7.0) and has the stronger defensive EPA baseline (-0.078 vs +0.059 allowed).
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota protects the early 3-0 lead and wins a low-possession game after Iowa's offense stalls.
  3. Game total under 40.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • under 40 pushes at exactly 40; under 40.5 wins at exactly 40.
    • exactly 40 occurred 157 of 10,371 games, an empirical 1.514% push mass.
    • No projection edge: Iowa, Minnesota scoring may differ from the 2014, 25 CFB baseline.
    Long Way Home
    • Iowa allowed 11.2 points per game across its five listed 2026 games; four stayed at 24 points or fewer allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota reaches the mid-20s and Iowa adds two touchdowns, pushing the game above 40.5.
  4. Iowa Hawkeyes −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Minnesota Golden Gophers to winLong shot
    +270%Won

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
  6. Iowa Hawkeyes first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; DERIVED REFERENCE (raised bar): my live first-half distribution is Iowa 52%, Minnesota 40%, tie 8%.
    • Iowa's six completed 2026 first-half margins were +21, -9, -3, +36, 0, +30; Minnesota's were -15, -6, +9, +18, -18, +24.
    • Season-to-date efficiency favors Iowa: away off EPA/play -0.041 and defensive EPA allowed -0.129, versus Minnesota home offense +0.012 and 43.2% success.
    • Only 24 live plays are observed; Iowa's live EPA/play is -0.534 and another turnover or stalled red-zone trip can preserve Minnesota's lead.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Iowa Hawkeyes spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  2. Iowa Hawkeyes 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa’s last five-game offensive EPA/play averages +0.165 versus Minnesota’s +0.053.
    • Matchup-adjusted recent EPA favors Iowa by roughly 0.057/play; Iowa also leads recent points/drive 2.54 to 1.70.
    • Iowa’s recent success rate is 48.5% versus Minnesota’s 46.4%, with nearly identical slow pace around 29, 30 seconds/play.
    • The 68% estimate is only about 5.6 points above a self-referential Kalshi reference, so it is not a large separation.
  3. Game 1st-half total under 30.5 pointsFavorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection is approximately 20.4 first-half points from five-game pace and points-per-drive averages.
    • Iowa averaged 2.54 points per drive and Minnesota 1.70; roughly five possessions each keeps the baseline below 30.5.
    • Both quarterbacks have live support: Ferentz named Jeremy Hecklinski, while Drake Lindsey led Minnesota's last game and is projected to start.
    • One explosive touchdown or early turnover can erase most of the projected cushion in a small first-half sample.
  4. Total points under 39
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 39 has $14,055 depth versus $6,738 for over 39 (2.09x): substantially more patient demand behind the quote.
    • Venue self-reference is not independent confirmation, and the 39-point alternate is below the captured main total of 40.5-42.
  5. Total Points under 43.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa allows -0.0777 defensive EPA/play; Minnesota allows +0.0586; points per drive are 2.55 and 2.17.
    • Venue self-reference is coherent: main 40.5; Iowa 24.5 plus Minnesota 16.5 team-total anchors equal 41.0.
    • Both Big Ten opponents are confirmed FBS with six current-season rows; latest pass leaders and live reporting identify Hecklinski and Lindsey.
    • Six-game samples leave turnover, special-teams, defensive-score, red-zone and overtime variance wide.
  6. Iowa Hawkeyes spread −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa's FBS-only profile has +0.0574 offensive EPA/play and -0.0141 defensive EPA allowed versus Minnesota's +0.0532 and +0.0518.
    • Iowa's recent form is 4-1 with a +11.8 average margin; Minnesota is 3-2 with a -2.0 average margin.
    • The FBS offensive EPA gap is tiny; Minnesota's explosive rate is slightly higher, 12.1% to Iowa's 11.6%.
  7. Reece Vander Zee over 30.5 receiving yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L6 exact line: 5 overs, 1 under, 0 pushes (83.3%; six-game sample).
    • Conservative Beta-smoothed, role-adjusted probability is 70%.
    • FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%; the point gap is +17.2, or +32.5% relative.
    • Only six 2026 games, not a full L10; fallback sample caps confidence LOW.
  8. Minnesota Golden Gophers +7.5
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa's +0.142 offensive EPA/play and -0.078 defensive EPA/play allowed are strong, but market lays 7.5 on the road.
    • Minnesota's offense averages +0.112 EPA/play; that profile plus home field makes a one-score game plausible.
    • Both teams have had roughly two weeks between games, removing a rest disadvantage for Minnesota.
    • Iowa's season net-efficiency edge is substantial, and Minnesota's defense allows +0.059 EPA/play.
  9. Game total under 41
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game pace sample: Iowa 28.88 seconds/play and Minnesota 30.42; their 64.5 and 66.0 plays per game point to a restrained possession count.
    • Iowa's defense allowed -0.0777 EPA/play, a difficult matchup for Minnesota's +0.1118 offensive EPA/play and 47.9% success rate.
    • QB gate cleared: Jeremy Hecklinski led Iowa's latest box with 19 attempts and was identified as the starter by Iowa notes; Drake Lindsey led Minnesota with 39 and is listed at QB by Minnesota's official game center.
    • Most likely loss: Iowa's offense attacks Minnesota's +0.0586 EPA/play allowed and Minnesota's +0.168 PROE creates enough possessions for 42 points.
  10. Minnesota Golden Gophers spread +7.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game efficiency: Iowa posts +0.142 EPA/play and 48.5% success; Minnesota posts +0.112 and 47.9%.
    • Possession structure: Iowa averages 28.88 seconds/play and 64.5 plays; Minnesota averages 30.42 and 66.0 plays.
    • Both quarterback identities cleared: Iowa starter Jeremy Hecklinski; Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey is confirmed by the official game center.
    • Most likely loss: Iowa’s defense allows -0.078 EPA/play versus Minnesota’s +0.059, creating short fields and a two-score margin.
  11. Iowa Hawkeyes −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa ranks 25th in FPI at 13.064; Minnesota ranks 71st at -0.251, a 13.315-point rating gap.
    • Iowa is 5-1 with a +99 point differential; Minnesota is 4-2 with a +42 differential through six games.
    • Most likely loss: Iowa wins but by 1-6 points, or lands exactly on seven for a push.

Questions

Who won Iowa vs. Minnesota?

The Minnesota won 13–10 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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