Kansas State vs. Arizona StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMountain America Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| ASU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 51.5 52¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Kansas State's 2026 offense EPA/play is strong at +0.1947, but Arizona State's recent offense is only +0.0461 EPA/play and its L5 margin is -13.4.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-2 on this game · +56% return
- Game total under 51.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-HourWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Kansas State's 2026 offense EPA/play is strong at +0.1947, but Arizona State's recent offense is only +0.0461 EPA/play and its L5 margin is -13.4.
- Kansas State quarterback Blake Barnett is a game-time decision after Avery Johnson was ruled out; the final QB choice can materially change the total.
Heater Two-Hour- US market is open with both sides quoted, a one-cent raw spread, and $54,092 traded on the 51.5 rung.
- College football lineup information remains projected rather than confirmed; a late personnel change can alter scoring.
- Arizona State Sun Devils to win+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs- Confirmed personnel shift: official Game Day report lists Kansas State QB Avery Johnson Out; expected replacement Jacob Knuth has only 1 recent snap.
- Kansas State's raw FBS profile is stronger, but that efficiency was built with Johnson; Arizona State's expected QB Cutter Boley has 168 snaps across three games.
- Kansas State still leads FBS-only averages in offensive EPA/play, 0.1947 to Arizona State's 0.0461, and defensive EPA allowed, 0.0513 to 0.1049.
Long Way Home- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, my post-news estimate is 53.5% ASU win probability versus 49.02¢ at ProphetX.
- TIMING input: Avery Johnson is officially out; Jacob Knuth is reported to start, and the venue still prices a near pick'em.
- Kansas State still owns the stronger season profile: +0.253 offensive EPA/play versus ASU's +0.147 and -0.011 defensive EPA allowed versus +0.033.
- Over 51.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days - Arizona State Sun Devils spread +1+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days - Total points under 53+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under depth stake $7,794 vs over $6,387: 1.22x across worse prices, making under the deeper side.
- Book levels are tied 3-3; the core thin-at-quote plus deep-behind-it pairing qualifies, but the third measure is neutral.
- Directional check: backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ML, spread, and nearby total ladders did not clear the same raw-size two-measure pattern.
- This is entirely ProphetX self-reference; no independent sharp reference confirms the order-flow read.
- Kansas State Wildcats under 26.5 team points+95%Won
Taken at −105 on BetMGM
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model median is 24.5 Kansas State points after downgrading the quarterback-dependent offense.
- Avery Johnson is ruled out; Jacob Knuth is expected to make his first start, with 1-for-1 passing this season.
- Kansas State's non-Nicholls 2026 offense averages 0.195 EPA/play and 2.65 points per drive.
- Kansas State's full-season offense averages 0.253 EPA/play and 3.07 points per drive, so the baseline is genuinely strong.
Show all 9 picks
- Game total under 55+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 55 refunds at exactly 55; adjacent under 54.5 loses at 55.
- ProphetX quotes both under 55 and under 54.5 at -170 (62.96¢): the whole-number push option is free.
- The historical distribution is broad 2014-25 and not matchup-specific; no independent total projection is used.
- Joe Jackson under 74.5 rushing yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 regular-season exact-line form: under 74.5 in 5 of 6 games, no pushes; yards were 159, 6, 59, 24, 68, 38.
- Comparable 2025 regular-season sample: under 74.5 in 8 of 11 games, no pushes; combined same-program sample is 13-4 under.
- Shrunk distribution estimate is 70.0% after discounting the 159-yard tail and current workload variance.
- The current-season sample is only six games, not a complete L10; 2025 role comparability is imperfect, so conviction is capped low.
- Kansas State Wildcats spread −2−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- K-State leads 2026 EPA/play .253 to .147 and defensive EPA allowed -0.011 to +.033; PFF overall 88.0 to 83.3.
- Most likely loss: Arizona State wins outright or K-State wins by exactly one; a two-point K-State win pushes.
Questions
Who won Kansas State vs. Arizona State?
The Arizona State won 28–17 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.