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Louisiana vs. Southern MissFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalM. M. Roberts Stadium
Louisiana5–2
31–35Final
Southern Miss1–5
Score by period
Team1234T
UL7147331
USM71401435

Top model pick, graded

Won

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns first-half spread NO 6.5 49¢

Why Early Cover likes it: 2023-26 FBS signed home-margin SD is 22.45; sqrt-half scaling gives a 15.87 first-half SD.

Early CoverDown 3% this season · 435 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-15 on this game · −50% return

  1. Game total under 52.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • Under 52 pushes at exactly 52; under 52.5 wins at exactly 52.
    • ProphetX under 52 is 48.31c (+107); under 52.5 is 50.25c (-101), only a 1.94c step.
    • This is not a directional scoring model; 53 or more points loses the half-point contract.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game sample: Louisiana allows -0.1614 EPA/play, while Southern averages only 1.991 points per drive.
    • QB gate cleared: latest boxes lead Lunch Winfield and Landry Lyddy; a same-day SI preview identifies both starters.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss’s 20.09-second pace and +0.156 PROE create extra possessions and exceed its scoring baseline.
  2. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −102 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only averages: Louisiana posts +0.135 offensive EPA/play and -0.161 defensive EPA/play; Southern Miss is +0.074 and +0.248.
    • The backed side owns a 0.409 defensive EPA/play advantage and a 2.4-point success-rate edge across six versus five FBS games.
    • College lineup status is expected, not official; the live lineup report has no availability status, and Sun Belt teams lack official injury-table coverage here.
    Long Way Home
    • ESPN's pregame model projects Louisiana by 11.55, 1.55 points above the -10 spread.
    • Louisiana is 5-2 with a +10.71 average margin; Southern Miss is 1-5 with a -8.50 average margin.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss stays within 10 or wins at home; Louisiana's road results have been volatile.
  3. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's exact 11.5 rung is Louisiana -109 / Southern Miss +11.5 -103; devigged Louisiana cover probability is 50.7%.
    • Current efficiency supports Louisiana: +0.154 offensive EPA/play and 2.96 points/drive versus Southern Miss +0.121 and 1.99.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss keeps the game within 11.5 despite Louisiana's efficiency edge.
  4. Under 52.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle exact 52.5 is over -107 / under -109; devigged under probability is 50.2%.
    • 141.3 average combined plays, Louisiana's 29.6-second pace, and its -0.201 defensive EPA allowed restrain chances.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss's 20.1-second pace creates enough possessions to clear 53.
  5. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live Louisiana -11.5/full-game 52.5 scaled to a first-half margin distribution, not treated as the same rung.
    • Season to date: Louisiana off EPA/play +0.154 and defensive EPA allowed -0.201 versus Southern Miss +0.121 and +0.154.
    • Conditional first-half estimate: Louisiana 49%, tie 14%, Southern Miss 37%; Kalshi's three-way midpoint devigs to 41.2% Louisiana.
    • DERIVED REFERENCE, not an exact first-half sharp quote; full-game-to-half scaling is model uncertainty.
  6. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns first-half spread NO 6.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2023-26 FBS signed home-margin SD is 22.45; sqrt-half scaling gives a 15.87 first-half SD.
    • Season-to-date scoring and points-per-drive blend projects roughly a +9.6 Louisiana full-game margin; Pinnacle's -10.0 is the SHARP REFERENCE, yielding a first-half mean near +4.9.
    • At the exact 6.5 rung, the mean-plus-SD distribution gives roughly 53% for NO after a modest key-number adjustment; this is above the 49¢ entry.
    • College margin mass at exactly 7 is real: 282 of 3,708 games, or 7.6%, so a first-half 7-point Louisiana lead directly defeats NO 6.5.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS season margins: Louisiana +7.33 versus Southern Miss -19.40, a 26.73-point differential.
    • Latest three FBS margins: Louisiana +9.67 versus Southern Miss -11.33, a 21.00-point differential.
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA favors Louisiana: defense -0.178 versus Southern Miss +0.177; success and points per drive also lead.
    • Southern Miss has the higher recent explosive-play rate, 16.1% versus Louisiana's 12.7%, creating backdoor-cover variance.
  2. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 1st-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisiana averaged +0.173 offensive EPA/play across its last four games versus Southern Miss at +0.095.
    • Louisiana's recent offensive success rate was 50.1%; Southern Miss was 46.6%.
    • Louisiana averaged 2.71 points per drive in that span; Southern Miss averaged 1.81.
    • Four games of recent efficiency data are not first-half-specific scripted-drive data.
  3. Game 1st-half total under 27.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisiana averaged 2.49 points per drive over its last five; Southern Miss averaged 1.57.
    • Last-five offensive success rates were .476 for Louisiana and .453 for Southern Miss, not a dual high-efficiency script.
    • Louisiana’s last-five defensive EPA/play allowed averaged -0.265, a meaningful brake on Southern Miss’s scoring rate.
    • A first half has roughly five drives per team; one explosive touchdown or turnover can clear 27.5 quickly.
  4. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN pregame model: Louisiana win probability 79.5%, projected margin 11.55 points.
    • Louisiana leads Southern Miss by 12.8 FPI points, 19.0 SP+ points, and 18.4 SRS points.
    • Last-10 profile favors Louisiana: +0.139 EPA/play offense and -0.119 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Southern Miss at +0.075 and +0.152.
    • Estimated cover probability is 53.0%, only about 3.5 points above the nearby sharp-market baseline; variance remains material.
  5. Total points under 54
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • All three measures agree: under has 3 book levels versus over's 2, with substantial raw stakes on both sides.
    • ProphetX self-reference can reflect stale or concentrated orders; no independent sharp confirmation is used.
  6. Game total under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 49.5 is 56.52¢ (-130), but wider under 50.5 is only 44.44¢ (+125).
    • Conservative projection: 47% under 50.5, still above ProphetX's 44.44¢ quote.
    • 2026 scoring blend centers near 53.1 points; the main ProphetX total is 52.5, making +125 a meaningful discount for a nearby under.
    • Most likely loss: the game reaches 51 or more through Southern Miss pace, explosive plays, or short fields.
  7. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisiana is 5-2 with a +75 scoring margin; Southern Miss is 1-5 with a -51 margin through the latest games.
    • Season efficiency favors Louisiana: +0.154 offensive EPA/play and -0.201 defensive EPA allowed versus Southern Miss at +0.121 and +0.154.
    • QB gate cleared: latest box leaders are Lunch Winfield and Landry Lyddy; a same-day preview names both as starters.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss keeps Louisiana to a one-score win of nine or fewer at home.
  8. Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +10
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA strongly favors the dog: Southern offense minus Louisiana defense allowed is +0.322; Louisiana’s matchup gap is approximately 0.000.
    • QB gate cleared: official preview names Lunch Winfield and Landry Lyddy; both teams are FBS with seven and six current-season rows.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss allows +0.154 EPA/play defensively, enabling Louisiana to turn field position into an 11-plus-point win.
  9. First-half total over 27.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season: Louisiana 70.4 plays/game; Southern Miss 70.8. Direct first-half drives average 6.00 and 6.17, 12.17 combined.
    • Southern Miss has a 3.81 seconds/play latest entry, an obvious data-quality outlier; valid pace median and direct drive counts were used instead.
  10. Game total under 53
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring averages imply 54.2 combined points, but Southern Miss allows 32.7 while Louisiana allows 19.3; the matchup-adjusted midpoint is lower.
    • Southern Miss enters 1-5 with a -8.5 average margin; Louisiana is 5-2 with a +10.7 margin and has allowed 6 points last week.
    • Fresh report lists Southern Miss QB Ethan Hampton and OL Greg Nunnery out, plus WR Grant Page out; expected starter Landry Lyddy faces a weakened offense.
    • Louisiana's 30.0-point season average plus Southern Miss defensive leakage can still produce a 30-plus-point Cajuns score.
  11. Total Points over 52
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The new 52-point rung is a one-point improvement from my open over 53; same-side add only after the number moved.
    • Combined scoring baseline is 54.17 points across seven Louisiana and six Southern Miss games; Southern Miss allows +0.154 EPA/play.
    • REFERENCE supports the projection: Louisiana over 34.5 (-125, $760) and Southern Mississippi over 20.5 (-116, $1,000) anchor 55 combined points.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's -0.201 defensive EPA/play suppresses Southern Miss below 20, leaving the game at 52 or fewer.
  12. Total Points over 53
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw scoring baselines combine for 54.17 points per game across seven Louisiana and six Southern Miss games.
    • Southern Miss allows +0.154 defensive EPA/play, while Louisiana's offense averages 30.0 points and carries a 74.6 PFF offense grade.
    • REFERENCE checked: full-game 53 is near the 31.5 Louisiana plus 20.5 Southern Mississippi team-total anchors (52); no contradictory ladder signal.
    • Most likely loss: Louisiana's -0.201 defensive EPA/play suppresses Southern Miss enough for the game to finish 52 or lower.

Questions

Who won Louisiana vs. Southern Miss?

The Southern Miss won 35–31 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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