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LSU vs. AuburnFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalJordan-Hare Stadium
LSU5–2
38–17Final
Auburn4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
LSU10210738
AUB370717

Top model pick, graded

Won

LSU Tigers −7 −115

Why Quantitative +EV Analyst likes it: Last-10 net EPA differential favors LSU by 26.8 points per 100 plays.

Quantitative +EV AnalystDown 7% this season · 89 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-10 on this game · +6% return

  1. LSU Tigers spread −73 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Model margin mean is LSU +9.8 with SD about 17; P(LSU wins by more than 7) is 57.0%.
    • Efficiency gap favors LSU: offense +0.234 EPA/play versus Auburn +0.068; LSU defensive allowance −0.173 versus Auburn +0.087; key number is 7.
    • Most likely loss: LSU wins by 1, 6 or Auburn wins; an exact 7 is a push.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • LSU's 7-game offense is +0.2336 EPA/play and 52.5% successful against Auburn's +0.0895 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Auburn's 6-game offense is +0.0562 EPA/play and 45.4% successful against LSU's -0.1731 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Auburn's home field, turnovers, or field position keep LSU's winning margin at six or fewer.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • LSU's six-game FBS-only profile is +0.204 offensive EPA/play and -0.162 defensive EPA allowed, versus Auburn +0.068 and +0.087.
    • LSU leads the FBS-only sample in success rate (.518 to .456) and explosive rate (.146 to .138); the matchup points beyond the seven-point number.
    • Likeliest loss path: Auburn wins outright or LSU wins by 1-6, with home-field variance keeping the game close.
  2. Total points over 502 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Over has 3 book levels versus under 2, giving two of three measures: thin quote, deeper total, more levels.
    • ProphetX offers over 50 at -128 American / 56.14c; backing over, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • CFB lineup data is expected rather than confirmed; the warehouse snapshot lists Byrum Brown as Auburn's expected QB.
    Tempo Board
    • PFF 2026 cards: LSU offense 81.8; Auburn defense 73.1; Sam Leavitt and Byrum Brown led latest passing boxes and were web-cross-checked.
    • Most likely loss: LSU's defense controls Auburn; LSU then must supply nearly the entire over by itself.
  3. LSU Tigers −7High conviction
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 net EPA differential favors LSU by 26.8 points per 100 plays.
    • LSU leads recent PFF overall grade 94.1 to 80.1 and defense grade 94.4 to 73.1.
    • LSU’s last-five scoring margin is +20.0 per game versus Auburn’s +5.8.
    • Auburn has home field and a 4-2 record; a one-score game creates late-cover volatility.
  4. LSU vs Auburn under 51.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The global contract is accepting and liquid, with about $20.6k traded.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; official reports list five LSU and three Auburn players Out.
  5. LSU Tigers to winFavorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LSU’s overall current-season EPA differential is +0.407/play versus Auburn’s -0.019 across seven and six games.
    • Movement favors LSU: Pinnacle devigged LSU moved from 71.4% open to 72.1% current, +0.7p.
    • College lineups are expected rather than official; a late LSU quarterback or key rotation scratch would invalidate the rating.
  6. Under 50.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: SEC teams with six and seven current advanced rows; Tier 2 after conservative garbage-time regression.
    • Possession case leans under: LSU and Auburn average 82.4 and 73.3 plays, while LSU allows -0.173 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Auburn tempo plus LSU explosive offense creates enough efficient touchdown drives to reach 51 points.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Auburn Tigers spread +1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main spread de-vigs Auburn +7 to 49.3% (Auburn -103 / LSU -109).
    • Auburn +1.5 crosses the 7 and 3 margin keys; 49.3% minus 5% minus 6% gives 38.3% fair.
    • The college lineup is expected rather than officially confirmed; late warmup scratches remain unknown.
  2. LSU Tigers 1H spread NO 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's full-game LSU -7 scales to a 3.5-point first-half mean; current pace/efficiency supports a modest first-half adjustment to μ≈3.9.
    • College margin 7 is a major full-game mass: 344 of 4,427 games (7.8%); a halftime LSU lead of exactly 7 loses this NO.
  3. Game total under 50
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven-game LSU sample: +0.2336 offensive EPA/play, 52.5% success, 14.7% explosive; Auburn defense allows +0.0868 EPA/play.
    • Six-game Auburn offense: +0.0679 EPA/play and 45.6% success against LSU's -0.1731 defensive EPA allowed.
    • LSU's 26.07 seconds/play and Auburn's 22.60 pace produce a mixed possession profile; Auburn's offense is the limiting matchup.
    • Most likely loss: LSU converts its strong offensive matchup while Auburn's faster pace creates enough possessions to reach 51+.
  4. LSU Tigers 1st-half winner
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LSU's last five average 78 plays, 53.1% success rate and +0.245 EPA/play; Auburn averages 46.5% and +0.100.
    • LSU averages 3.17 points per drive in the span versus Auburn's 2.25, a meaningful opening-script efficiency gap.
    • Against the opponent defense, LSU's offensive EPA/allowed-EPA composite is roughly +0.358 versus Auburn near -0.004.
    • Kalshi's 62c quote is being compared with a self-devigged three-way substitute reference, not an independent first-half sportsbook line.
  5. 1Q total over 12.5 points
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14.4 combined first-quarter points per game across each team's last five: LSU 9.0, Auburn 5.4.
    • LSU's first-quarter success rate averaged 60.1%; Auburn's averaged 38.7%.
    • LSU produced positive first-quarter EPA in four of five recent games; Auburn was negative in three of five.
    • A five-game first-quarter sample is noisy; one explosive play or red-zone failure can move the result by a full score.
  6. Total points under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB history: exact total 50 occurred 146 of 10,371 games, an explicit 1.408% push mass for under 50.
    • This is not a low-scoring projection; any final total above 50.5 loses, and the broad historical mass is not matchup-specific.
  7. Under 50 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 50 wins below 50, pushes at exactly 50, and loses above 50.
    • Under 50.5 wins the exact-50 outcome that under 50 pushes.
    • Exactly 50 is a push, not a win, so the ticket can return stake rather than cash a profit.
  8. Auburn Tigers +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Auburn +7.5 wins on an LSU victory by 7; the half-point line cannot push.
    • Auburn +7 pushes on an LSU victory by exactly 7, so that outcome is excluded from wins.
    • Auburn +7.5 still loses if LSU wins by 8 or more; the edge depends on the market gap, not a team projection.
  9. LSU Tigers spread −7.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LSU leads 2026 regular-season form in offense EPA/play (+0.234 vs +0.068) and defense allowed EPA/play (-0.173 vs +0.087).
    • Recent scoring margins are LSU +24.6 and Auburn +5.0; the model's mean-margin read favors LSU clearing the key rung.
    • QB gate cleared: Sam Leavitt led LSU's latest box row with 38 attempts and Byrum Brown led Auburn with 26; current preview names both.
    • Most likely loss: Auburn's home-field advantage keeps LSU within seven or produces an outright Auburn result.
  10. LSU Tigers −7.5
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 sample is six games per team; LSU’s season margin +20.5 versus Auburn’s +5.0, with LSU’s McNeese game excluded.
    • Season EPA supports LSU on both sides: offense 0.204 versus 0.068 and defensive EPA allowed −0.162 versus +0.087; success rate 51.8% versus 45.6%.
    • Latest three FBS games agree: LSU margin +19.7, offense EPA 0.221, defense −0.170, and 2.99 points per drive versus Auburn’s −0.3, −0.010, +0.088, and 1.58.
    • ESPN’s FPI matchup projects LSU by only 7.7, leaving little margin at the market number; it is the main model-sensitivity warning against the 11.9 estimate.
  11. First-quarter total over 13.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Score is already 13 with 1:55 left in Q1; any additional point clears 13.5.
    • Season-to-date pace: Auburn 73.3 plays/game at 22.60 seconds/play; LSU 82.4 at 26.07; blended pace 24.33 seconds/play.
    • Live box score has Byrum Brown and Sam Leavitt throwing; web game coverage identifies the same QB matchup.
    • Only 1:55 remains; a stalled or clock-killing possession leaves the quarter at 13.
  12. First-half total over 24.5 points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game books moved from 51.5 to 52.5 before settling near 52.0, directionally supporting the early-over thesis.
    • Derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; this is capped at LEAN.
  13. Game total under 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection leans near 51-52: LSU posts +0.2336 offensive EPA/play and -0.1731 defensive EPA allowed, while Auburn is +0.0679 and +0.0868.
    • LSU's fresh 2026 team card grades 94.1 overall and 94.4 defense versus Auburn's 80.1 and 73.1; that supports suppressing Auburn's scoring share.
    • QB gate cleared: latest box leaders are Sam Leavitt and Byrum Brown; game-day depth-one listings were refreshed at 8:00 AM, and a current pregame article identifies both in the matchup.
    • Most likely loss: Auburn contributes enough explosive plays, or LSU converts short fields, to reach 53 total points.
  14. Total points over 52.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LSU averages 40.4 points and Auburn 26.8, a 67.2 combined scoring baseline versus 52.5.
    • LSU leads this matchup in 2026 offensive EPA/play, 0.234 to Auburn's 0.068; Auburn allows +0.087 defensive EPA/play.
    • Pinnacle's over 52 is -113 and the market moved to 52.5, corroborating a higher-scoring read despite the half-point difference.
    • LSU's defense is the strongest unit in the matchup; Auburn scored only 14 and 21 in two recent games.

Questions

Who won LSU vs. Auburn?

The LSU won 38–17 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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