Mercyhurst vs. Robert MorrisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJoe Walton Stadium
Mercyhurst1–6
14–28Final
Robert Morris3–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| ROBE | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonRobert Morris Colonials −5.5 48¢
Heater Two-HourDown 9% this season · 145 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-0 on this game · +88% return
- Robert Morris Colonials −4.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- 58.5% cover estimate versus the 50.0% market baseline at the exact -4.5 line: +8.5 percentage points.
- Blended margin is Robert Morris -12.6: 50% L5 differential (+7.4), 25% season differential (+21.1), and 25% SRS differential (+16.1).
- Only seven 2026 games per team; pooled recent margin standard deviation is about 26 points, so the 58.5% estimate is noisy.
CFB HunterV2- Robert Morris leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.0485 to Mercyhurst -0.1054.
- Robert Morris' defense EPA allowed/play is 0.0657 versus Mercyhurst's 0.2895; lower is better.
- Both teams are FCS and high-variance; Robert Morris is only 1-4 over its last five.
- Robert Morris Colonials to win+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, CFB HeaterWhy 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0- Recent five-game EPA profile favors Robert Morris: offense +0.014/play and defense +0.180 allowed versus Mercyhurst -0.106 and +0.255.
- Robert Morris grades materially better: 84.6 overall and 90.9 defense versus Mercyhurst 71.0 and 73.4.
- Robert Morris lost its last two games and its recent five-game scoring margin is still -9.6, so the model may overrate the home side.
CFB Heater- Recent form favors Robert Morris: 3-4 with -1.0 average margin over seven versus Mercyhurst 1-6 at -22.1.
- The sharp-holder stats are historical aggregates, not a game-specific predictive model; no top weekly leader was confirmed on this event.
- Total points under 49.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- Under 49.5 wins at 49; under 49 pushes at exactly 49.
- The half-point contract is 1.46c cheaper despite adding the 49-point outcomes: a 3.65c relative inversion.
- Independent books support the under but do not prove the exchange ladder remains mispriced through kickoff.
Long Way Home- Robert Morris averaged 22.6 points and Mercyhurst 25.4 over their last five games: 48.0 combined before opponent adjustment.
- Robert Morris' SRS rating is -36.0 versus Mercyhurst's -52.1; the home-side quality edge can win without requiring a shootout.
- Most likely loss: weak defenses create short fields; Mercyhurst allowed 42.4 points per game over its last five.
- Robert Morris Colonials −5.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Robert Morris −6 (push at exactly 6)+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Robert Morris -6 pushes at exactly a 6-point win; Robert Morris -6.5 loses on that outcome.
- ProphetX quotes Robert Morris -6 at -110 (52.38¢) versus -6.5 at -150 (60.00¢), an inverted whole/half-rung relationship.
- No projection model: the broader board ranges from Robert Morris -4.5 to -6.5, so the chance of a non-push cover is uncertain.
- Robert Morris Colonials spread −5.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX prices the easier Robert Morris -5.5 at 51.22¢ (-105), while the harder -6.5 is 60.00¢ (-150), an inverted ladder.
- Projection supports Robert Morris: 24.3 points scored versus Mercyhurst's 21.6, and 25.3 points allowed versus 43.7.
- Robert Morris allows 183.9 opponent pass yards; Mercyhurst allows 239.3, a matchup-specific defensive gap.
- Most likely loss: Robert Morris wins but by 1-5 points, or Mercyhurst wins outright.
Questions
Who won Mercyhurst vs. Robert Morris?
The Robert Morris won 28–14 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.