New Hampshire vs. MerrimackFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDuane Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| MERR | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMerrimack Warriors −1.5 53¢
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −53% return
- New Hampshire Wildcats +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- QB edge: expected Brooks Bentley has 1,364 pass yards and a 7:4 TD/INT line versus AJ Hairston Jr.'s 958 and 6:6.
- UNH's 72.0 PFF team grade exceeds Merrimack's 68.9; UNH also leads in passing grade 60.0 to 53.6 and special teams 82.0 to 80.7.
- Market support: UNH shortened from +122 to +106 on the moneyline while Merrimack moved from -144 to -130.
- UNH is 1-4 in its last five while Merrimack is 2-3; recent Merrimack success rate is 44.9% versus UNH's 37.3%.
- New Hampshire Wildcats over 46.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season team-game totals cleared 46.5 in 9 of 15 observations (60%, no pushes); the latest five per team combine for 6 of 10.
- Pooled current-season total mean is 50.93 with 14.72-point sample SD; a normal approximation gives 61.8% over, conservatively haircut to 59%.
- Both offenses are negative in season EPA/play (-0.076 New Hampshire, -0.132 Merrimack), while recent defensive EPA allowed is positive for both, supporting volatility and scoring leakage.
- Merrimack's 82.7 PFF defense grade and New Hampshire's 75.7 grade could suppress the total despite the recent distribution.
- Merrimack Warriors −1.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - New Hampshire Wildcats spread +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model estimate: New Hampshire covers +2.5 at 54.0%; fair decimal odds 1.85.
- New Hampshire's recent defensive EPA allowed is 0.0246 versus Merrimack's 0.1000.
- New Hampshire grades better overall, 72.0 to 68.9, with a 64.8-to-57.8 offensive-grade edge.
- Both offenses are inefficient recently: -0.1123 EPA/play for New Hampshire and -0.0870 for Merrimack.
Questions
Who won New Hampshire vs. Merrimack?
The Merrimack won 24–17 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.