New Haven vs. Central ConnecticutFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalArute Field
New Haven2–5
20–42Final
Central Connecticut3–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW | 6 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 20 |
| CENT | 7 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCentral Connecticut Blue Devils spread −14.5 +102
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: CCSU posts +0.140 offensive EPA/play and 46.9% success, versus New Haven at -0.090 and 39.2%.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −16% return
- New Haven Chargers spread +14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- New Haven is 2-5 with -0.0899 EPA/play; CCSU is 3-3 with +0.0955 EPA/play.
Long Way Home- 2026 SRS gap is only 12.2 points (Central Connecticut -33.1, New Haven -45.3), versus a 14.5-point spread.
- Central Connecticut's defense allows 37.5 points and 0.226 EPA/play on average, increasing New Haven's backdoor-cover path.
- Most likely loss: Central Connecticut's offense repeats its 33.2-point average and turns the SRS gap into a multi-score win.
- Central Connecticut Blue Devils spread −14.5+102%Won
Taken at +102 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CCSU posts +0.140 offensive EPA/play and 46.9% success, versus New Haven at -0.090 and 39.2%.
- CCSU’s season scoring margin is 8.3 points better despite a difficult defensive profile.
- Both teams had seven days’ rest; Fox lists Brett Griffis and AJ Duffy as the starting quarterbacks.
- CCSU allows +0.226 defensive EPA/play, leaving a real New Haven backdoor-cover path.
- Under 55.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined season scoring averages total 47.7 points, 7.8 below FanDuel’s 55.5 threshold.
- New Haven’s offense is -0.090 EPA/play, 39.2% successful, and only 8.9% explosive across seven games.
- Both listed starting quarterbacks are current, and NOAA projects dry, mostly sunny, calm conditions; weather adds no scoring boost.
- CCSU’s +0.226 defensive EPA allowed can create explosive New Haven drives and a backdoor over.
- Total points over 55.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Central Connecticut averages 48.0 points and allows 14.0 in its two 2026 home games.
- New Haven averages 16.75 points and allows 32.75 in four 2026 road games.
- A simple venue-split blend projects approximately 55.8 points, narrowly above the corrected 55.5 contract.
- Most likely loss: New Haven's offense repeats its low-end output and Central wins 38-10 or similar, staying below 55.5.
Questions
Who won New Haven vs. Central Connecticut?
The Central Connecticut won 42–20 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.