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North Texas vs. NavyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
North Texas4–2
49–39Final
Navy2–4
Score by period
Team1234T
UNT141414749
NAVY31415739

Top model pick, graded

Won

North Texas Mean Green −1 58¢

Why Resting Money likes it: Backing North Texas Mean Green -1, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.

Resting MoneyDown 3% this season · 1227 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 21-3 on this game · +61% return

  1. North Texas Mean Green to win5 models agree
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket

    5 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-Hour +3
    Why 5 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • North Texas enters 4-1 in its last five; Navy is 1-4 over the same window.
    • At 58.5c, the edge over the sportsbook devigged away probability is only roughly 1-2 points.
    Heater Two-Hour
      • North Texas is only a modest favorite at the current market price; Navy's home field and option rushing attack can keep this close.
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • ESPN FPI pregame model projects North Texas at 66.9%; own estimate is 65.5% after a 1.4-point uncertainty haircut.
      • North Texas is 4-2 this season and 4-1 over its last five; Navy is 2-4 and 1-4.
      • No exact-line hit-rate history applies to this team moneyline; the player-prop L10 gate is not applicable.
      Resting Money
      • Backing North Texas Mean Green, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • ProphetX is the only reference; no independent sharp reference validates the order-flow interpretation.
    • North Texas Mean Green spread −34 models agree
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      4 modelsProphetX Pairs, Saturday Board Pairs +2
      Why 4 models like it
      ProphetX Pairs
      • North Texas averages +0.2008 offensive EPA/play, .4966 success and .1516 explosive rate across five FBS games.
      • North Texas is 4-1 with a +22.8 average margin in the slate's last-five form; Navy is 1-4 at -2.6.
      • Expected, not confirmed, QBs: Tayven Jackson and Jackson Gutierrez; AAC availability has no official injury feed and the X signal returned no game reports.
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • Six-game FBS sample: North Texas owns +0.259 EPA/play, 52.0% success, and 16.3% explosive rate.
      • Matchup gap: North Texas offense minus Navy defensive EPA allowed is +0.137; Navy’s corresponding gap is only +0.009.
      • Most likely loss: Navy’s home option attack controls possession and turns North Texas’s +0.120 defensive EPA allowed into efficient drives.
      Key Number CFB
      • North Texas -3.5 is 48.31¢; the 2.91-point drop is below the roughly 4.6% directional exact-3 density implied by 955/10,371 historical CFB games.
      • ProphetX's North Texas moneyline is -146 (59.35¢) and its main -2.5 spread is -129 (56.33¢), preserving favorite-direction coherence.
      • Most likely loss: Navy wins outright or North Texas wins by 1-2; exactly three pushes rather than wins.
      Long Way Home
      • North Texas leads current-season team-game EPA/play 0.259 to Navy's 0.129, success rate 52.0% to 49.7%.
      • North Texas averages 42.2 points and +13.0 margin through six games; Navy averages 28.2 points and +2.3 margin.
      • Most likely loss: Navy's home-field and triple-option rushing control possession, turning a close game into a Navy win or one-score cover.
    • North Texas Mean Green −1High conviction
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Backing North Texas Mean Green -1, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • ProphetX is the only reference; the three-measure signal is venue self-reference, not independent evidence of team strength.
    • North Texas Mean Green total over 60.5
      +93%Won

      Taken at −108 on FanDuel

      Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • North Texas averages 0.259 offensive EPA/play and 3.27 points/drive across six games; Navy averages 0.129 and 2.64.
      • Both defenses allow positive EPA/play: Navy +0.122 and North Texas +0.120, supporting efficient opposing possessions.
      • Expected quarterbacks Tayven Jackson and Jackson Gutierrez are present; recent skill-player usage is stable and weather is mostly sunny with roughly 6-mph wind.
      • The most likely loss is Navy's slower pace and recent offensive dip: 59, 51 and 75 plays in its last three games, including 0.91 points/drive versus Air Force.
    • Over 61 total
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle main 61: Over -107 / Under -109; devigged Over is 49.8%.
      • 141.7 combined plays, plus North Texas explosive rate 16.3% and Navy 12.4%, support enough scoring chances.
      • Most likely loss: Navy's 29.75-second pace and lower drive efficiency strand possessions below 62 points.
    • North Texas Mean Green first-half winner
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • first-half margin model is North Texas +3.4, producing 59% UNT / 33% Navy / 8% tie.
      • DERIVED REFERENCE (raised bar): Pinnacle full-game devig gives UNT 59.4% at -3; ESPN FPI projects UNT 66.9% with a six-point margin.
      • UNT is 4-2 at halftime with a +7.3 average margin; Navy is 2-4 with a -5.0 average halftime margin.
      • This is a derived, not genuine first-half sharp reference; scaling full-game information into the first half is uncertain.
    Show all 17 picks
    1. North Texas Mean Green first-half spread NO 3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 3,708 FBS finals from 2023, 26 have SD 15.21; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.76.
      • UNT’s 3.27 points/drive, 0.259 EPA/play, 0.163 explosive rate and faster pace pull the blended half mean near North Texas +0.2.
      • Pinnacle’s full-game Navy −3 scales to Navy +1.5 at halftime, also favoring North Texas NO 3.5; 1,043 contracts traded, 2¢ width.
      • First-half SD is inferred from full-game margins, not directly observed; normal tails can misprice explosive CFB scoring.
    2. North Texas Mean Green 1st-half winner
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • North Texas' last three games averaged 0.367 offensive EPA/play and 3.72 points per drive.
      • Navy's last three averaged 0.122 offensive EPA/play and 2.34 points per drive.
      • North Texas' 27.8-second recent pace supports more opening-half possessions than Navy's 31.0 seconds.
      • Only three recent games per team; opponent quality and game scripts vary materially.
    3. Total points over 61
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Backing over 61, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • ProphetX is the only reference; this is a venue-self-reference read with no independent sharp confirmation.
    4. North Texas Mean Green −3.5
      +105%Won

      Taken at +105 on BetMGM

      CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model makes North Texas roughly 56% to cover -3.5; +105 implies 48.8% before margin.
      • North Texas leads recent six-game offense EPA/play 0.259 to Navy's 0.129 and success rate 52.0% to 49.7%.
      • FPI ratings favor North Texas 2.111 to Navy -5.860; ESPN's pregame model gives North Texas 66.9% outright and projects a six-point margin.
      • Navy's home-field and option structure can compress variance and punish North Texas if early-down defense fails.
    5. Game total under 61.5 (wins at 61; no push)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • under 61.5 wins at exactly 61; adjacent under 61 pushes at exactly 61; this leg matches the exact contract.
      • Exact 61 totals occurred 215 of 9,890 historical CFB games, a 2.174% extra-win state versus under 61.
      • ProphetX charges only 0.67 cents more implied price: 53.05c under 61.5 versus 52.38c under 61 (-110).
      • The 2.174% exact-61 estimate is league-wide 2014, 25 CFB mass, not a North Texas, Navy-specific scoring distribution.
    6. Navy Midshipmen +3
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • [VENUE SELF-REFERENCE] ProphetX's graded Navy +3 price is 49.75¢, versus Navy +3.5 at 53.27¢ (-114): a 3.52¢ adjacent-rung gap.
      • The 5-year leaguewide sample is large but may not match this specific Navy, North Texas matchup.
    7. Game total over 60
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • North Texas leads Navy in 2026 offensive EPA/play (.259 vs .129), success rate (.520 vs .497), explosiveness (.163 vs .124), and PROE (+.123 vs -.151).
      • North Texas averages 42.2 points this season; Navy averages 28.2, and their six-game recent totals average roughly 71.3 and 54.0.
      • QB gate: latest box leaders are Tayven Jackson and Jackson Gutierrez; live team checks identify both as the expected game quarterbacks with no out/open-battle signal.
      • Most likely loss: the game finishes 59 or fewer, with Navy's 29.75-second pace compressing possessions.
    8. Total Points over 56.5Favorite
      +41%Won

      Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • the captured sportsbook total is 60.5, four points above ProphetX’s quoted over rung; projection uses current data only, not a stale-season blend.
      • Most likely loss: Navy’s -15.0% PROE and 29.75-second pace produce too few possessions; North Texas must carry the total.
    9. North Texas Mean Green over 31.5 team points
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on BetOnline

      Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted offense: +0.1368 EPA/play (North Texas offense +0.2591 minus Navy defensive EPA allowed +0.1224), six games each.
      • North Texas finished 23 of 30 red-zone trips for touchdowns (.767); Navy allowed 10 of 16 (.625). The offense-side over trigger clears .62.
      • North Texas's +.1231 PROE and .5135 pass rate support scoring upside, though the pace read caps the stake.
      • Most likely loss: both slow clocks suppress possessions; North Texas misses one red-zone chance and finishes at 31 or fewer.
    10. Game 1st-half total over 30.5 points
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Recent scoring-rate inputs project approximately 31.5 first-half points, just above the 30.5-point rung.
      • North Texas averaged 3.72 points per drive over its last three; Navy averaged 2.34.
      • The mixed pace still supports roughly ten combined first-half drives, with North Texas' aggressive 0.116 average PROE lifting scoring rate.
      • The projection is built from only three games per team and is highly sensitive to drive-count assumptions.
    11. First-half total over 30.5 points
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • six-game windows show 12.33 North Texas plus 11.00 Navy full-game drives; 11.67 projected first-half drives.
      • North Texas averaged 75.3 plays at 27.94 seconds/play; Navy 66.3 at 29.75, with no verified weather possession cut.
      • Derived first-half reference uses an independent Pinnacle full-game total, not an independent first-half sharp quote; direct PPD is materially above that anchor.

    Questions

    Who won North Texas vs. Navy?

    The North Texas won 49–39 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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