Northern Colorado vs. UC DavisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUC Davis Health Stadium
Northern Colorado3–5
6–33Final
UC Davis4–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| UC | 14 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUC Davis Aggies first-half winner 81¢
Why Front Runner likes it: captured Pinnacle full-game UC Davis -10 is the directional anchor; no exact sharp first-half rung exists.
Front RunnerDown 19% this season · 62 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −54% return
- Northern Colorado Bears +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- 391 FCS games show a 3.31-point home edge; common-opponent projection makes UC Davis a 4.31-point favorite.
- Common-opponent sample is only two games and is venue-imbalanced: UC played both at home, Northern Colorado both away.
CFB HunterV2- SRS rates Northern Colorado 4.3 points stronger than UC Davis on a neutral field (-27.7 vs -32.0).
- Recent defensive EPA allowed favors Northern Colorado: +0.151 versus UC Davis +0.240 per play.
- UC Davis has the stronger PFF overall grade, 87.0 to 78.1, and a modest explosive-play advantage.
- UC Davis Aggies first-half winner+23%Won
Taken at 81¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- captured Pinnacle full-game UC Davis -10 is the directional anchor; no exact sharp first-half rung exists.
- Live margin is UC Davis +14 after Q1; live EPA/success are +0.5229/.650 versus Northern Colorado -.405/.385.
- My residual-Q2 first-half distribution estimates UC Davis 92%, tie 4%, Northern Colorado 4%; Kalshi mid devigs to 78.2%/6.9%/14.9%.
- The reference is derived from a full-game line, not an independent first-half sharp price; scaling error is material.
- Northern Colorado Bears to win−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Northern Colorado Bears over 9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
EPA MismatchUp 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My estimate is 56% versus roughly 48% fair market probability for Northern Colorado +9.5.
- SRS rates Northern Colorado -27.7 and UC Davis -32.0, a 4.3-point adjusted-rating edge to the Bears before home field.
- Last-five EPA: Northern Colorado offense +0.084 and defense allowed +0.151; UC Davis was +0.055 and +0.314, respectively.
- UC Davis has the stronger 2026 full-sample offense: +0.108 EPA/play and 2.283 points per drive versus Northern Colorado's +0.061 and 2.095.
- Game total under 57.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My scoring projection is 55, 56 points, 1.5, 2.5 below the 57.5 contract.
- The teams’ last-five point averages sum to 53.4: Northern Colorado 24.8 and UC Davis 28.6.
- UC Davis scored 17 points last week, while Northern Colorado’s last three outputs were 28, 22, and 14.
- Most likely loss: UC Davis rebounds offensively and Northern Colorado contributes enough explosive plays to reach 58+.
- Northern Colorado Bears spread +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Northern Colorado's season margin is -1.9 points versus UC Davis -2.7, despite the market making UC Davis a 9.5-point favorite.
- Northern Colorado's defense has allowed 0.151 EPA/play versus UC Davis 0.186; the Aggies' offensive edge is only 0.047 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: UC Davis' home offense rebounds from its 17-point prior game and creates a two-score margin.
Questions
Who won Northern Colorado vs. UC Davis?
The UC Davis won 33–6 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.