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Northern Iowa vs. Southern IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSaluki Stadium
Northern Iowa3–3
17–20Final
Southern Illinois3–5
Score by period
Team1234T
NORT703717
SOUT0107320

Top model pick, graded

Won

Northern Iowa Panthers under 50.5 total points 63¢

Why House Rules likes it: Under 50.5 wins at 50 or fewer points; this half-point contract cannot push.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-3 on this game · −8% return

  1. Northern Iowa Panthers under 50.5 total pointsHigh conviction
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 50.5 wins at 50 or fewer points; this half-point contract cannot push.
    • Under 50 pushes at exactly 50; ProphetX prices that whole-number rung at 73.68c.
    • ProphetX prices under 50.5 at only 62.96c: 10.72c cheaper despite winning on the exact-50 outcome.
    • The 1.408% exact-50 rate is a broad 2014, 2025 sample, not matchup-specific.
  2. Over 49.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring/defense blend produces approximately 52.7 expected points versus FanDuel's 49.5.
    • SIU allows 27.5 points per game and UNI allows 29.3; both defenses also rate positively in EPA allowed per play.
    • The efficiency matchup is offense-friendly: UNI posts +0.050 offensive EPA/play and SIU's defense allows +0.099; SIU's defense is the softer unit.
    • SIU averages only 22.9 points per game, so its offense can fail to contribute enough for an over.
  3. Northern Iowa Panthers +4.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season efficiency is closer than the spread: UNI averages +0.050 offensive EPA/play versus SIU +0.007.
    • Raw offense/defense scoring blend projects roughly SIU 26.1, UNI 26.6 before home field; fair spread about SIU -2.0.
    • Both teams have seven days' rest; no short-week disadvantage distorts the matchup.
    • The warehouse QB status is expected rather than officially confirmed, so a late scratch would materially change the estimate.
  4. Northern Iowa Panthers +3.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Northern Iowa has the stronger current team grade, 76.0 versus Southern Illinois 71.1.
    • Recent form favors Northern Iowa: 2-1 in its last three versus Southern Illinois' 0-3, while the recent EPA gap is modest.
    • +3.5 provides price and margin protection versus the sportsbook range of Southern Illinois -2.5 to -3.5.
    • Northern Iowa's recent defense allowed 0.1409 EPA/play in the 7-game window; Southern Illinois has the better recent defense at 0.1194 EPA/play.
  5. Northern Iowa +7.5Favorite
    +23%Won

    Taken at 81¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Southern Illinois -7 at 69.23c versus -7.5 at 69.70c is structurally attractive, but its depth_stake was not reported. EXPLORATORY: the +3/+3.5 rung is highly incoherent and not promoted.
    • The 7.918% push estimate is an all-CFB 2014-25 historical rate, not a matchup-specific forecast.
  6. Game total over 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup projection is 52.7 points: UNI offense/ SIU defense yields 26.6, SIU offense/ UNI defense 26.1.
    • Fast recent pace (UNI 11.82, SIU 10.37 seconds/play), positive PROE (+0.111, +0.087), and both defenses allowing positive EPA support scoring.
    • QB gate cleared: Jaxon Dailey and DJ Williams led latest pass-attempt rows; a fresh Fox Sports listing names both as starting quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: recent SIU offensive struggles continue and the game finishes 49 or fewer.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Northern Iowa Panthers to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Northern Iowa's 2026 offense averages +0.0496 EPA/play versus Southern Illinois' +0.0066.
    • Northern Iowa averages 25.7 points per game; Southern Illinois averages 22.9 and has lost its last two by 21 points each.
    • no same-line sharp moneyline was posted; this is a warehouse-based projection only.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Illinois' home-field edge and stronger season-long defense turn the matchup into a close SIU win.

Questions

Who won Northern Iowa vs. Southern Illinois?

The Southern Illinois won 20–17 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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