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Oklahoma vs. Mississippi StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDavis Wade Stadium
Oklahoma3-3
23–15Final
Mississippi State4-2
Score by period
Team1234T
OU3710323
MSST007815

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 48.5 49¢

Why House Rules likes it: under 48.5 wins at exactly 48; under 48 pushes at exactly 48.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-7 on this game · −42% return

  1. Oklahoma Sooners to win2 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Oklahoma leads current FPI rating 13.33 to 9.07 and PFF defense 82.8 to Mississippi State's 76.8.
    • Oklahoma's defense allows -0.08 EPA/play over the recent window, a stronger underlying matchup than Mississippi State's +0.19.
    • Oklahoma is 2-3 over its last five while Mississippi State is 3-2; recent scoring margins favor neither side materially.
    Long Way Home
    • Oklahoma's SP+ defense ranks 6th versus Mississippi State's 75th; FPI ratings also favor Oklahoma 13.33 to 9.07.
    • Oklahoma's season defensive EPA allowed is -0.05 per play versus Mississippi State's +0.14, a matchup-specific edge against the home offense.
    • Most likely loss: Mississippi State's offense, averaging 32.5 points and +0.24 EPA/play, wins the explosive-play battle at home.
  2. Anthony Evans III over 6.5 receptionsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yards per target fell 8.14 → 9.22 → 3.64; latest efficiency cratered while usage share stayed elevated.
    • Mississippi State averaged 34.7 pass attempts in those games; PROE was positive in all three: +0.15, +0.22, +0.06.
    • The game is priced near pick'em at Oklahoma -1.5; Evans is expected with 205 snaps over his last 3 games, and Ayden Williams is officially Out.
    • Most likely loss: Oklahoma controls the game, Mississippi State repeats the 26-pass low, and Evans finishes six despite his share.
  3. Game total under 48.5High conviction
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 48.5 wins at exactly 48; under 48 pushes at exactly 48.
    • ProphetX under 48.5 is +104 (49.02¢), while the dominated under 48 is +100 (50.00¢).
    • This is not a projection claim: under 48.5 still loses at 49 or more; own conservative win estimate is 50.0%.
  4. Game total over 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MAGATheeStallion is 46-0 in its current CFB sample and holds this Over position.
    • betabot is 24-0 in its current CFB sample and holds this Over position.
    • Oklahoma scored 14 points per game across its last five; a stalled offense can keep this under 48.
  5. Mississippi State Bulldogs spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game FBS sample: Mississippi State offense averages +0.24 EPA/play, 49.6% success, and 15.1% explosive plays versus Oklahoma's -0.02, 45.7%, and 9.4%.
    • The matchup has a strong underdog scoring profile: Mississippi State's +0.24 offensive EPA/play meets Oklahoma's -0.05 defensive EPA/play allowed, while Oklahoma's offense faces Mississippi State's +0.14 allowed.
    • PFF's latest card favors Mississippi State's offense 72.2 to 62.1, while Oklahoma's defensive edge is narrower at 82.8 to 76.8; home field and the 2.5-point cushion matter.
    • Most likely loss: Oklahoma's stronger 82.8 defensive PFF grade and -0.05 EPA allowed suppress Mississippi State, producing an Oklahoma win by three or more.
  6. Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +3.5 wins on a three-point Mississippi State loss; adjacent +3 pushes at exactly three.
    • ProphetX prices +3.5 at 59.35c versus +3 at 55.75c, only a 3.60c premium for the added win state.
    • A Mississippi State loss by four or more loses outright; football margin variance remains wide.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Total Points over 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjacent over 47.5 is -121; over 48 is -113, a favorable same-ladder price dislocation.
    • Six-game pace: Oklahoma 24.22, Mississippi State 24.34 seconds/play; PROE averages +9.2% and +10.6%.
    • Most likely loss: Oklahoma repeats recent 13-point outputs; 48 pushes, 47 or fewer loses the over.
  2. Anthony Evans III over 77.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season-to-date: 4 of 6 games cleared 77.5; Beta(1,1)-smoothed win probability is 62.5%.
    • Mississippi State ranks 221st of 319 in defensive EPA allowed; its bottom-31% tier is favorable.
    • Six current-season games is not a full L10; the form fallback caps conviction LOW.
  3. Mississippi State Bulldogs to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mississippi State leads Oklahoma in 2026 FBS-only offense: +0.24 vs -0.02 EPA/play, 49.6% vs 45.7% success, and 15.1% vs 9.4% explosive rate.
    • Pinnacle's captured reference was Mississippi State +108; reference only, not the edge claim.
    • Oklahoma's defense is much stronger: -0.05 EPA/play allowed versus Mississippi State's +0.14.

Questions

Who won Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State?

Oklahoma won 23-15 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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