Presbyterian vs. ValparaisoFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBrown Field
Presbyterian4–3
7–24Final
Valparaiso3–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRES | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| VALP | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonValparaiso Beacons to win 58¢
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: SRS rates Valparaiso -47.6 versus Presbyterian -64.8, a 17.2-point gap; the current sportsbook market implies 57.8% for Valparaiso.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +8% return
- Valparaiso Beacons to win+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Tailgate
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, BETALAB 6.0Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- SRS rates Valparaiso -47.6 versus Presbyterian -64.8, a 17.2-point gap; the current sportsbook market implies 57.8% for Valparaiso.
- Comparable 2026 FCS sample: 22 home games with a 15, 20 point SRS gap went 20-2 (90.9%), averaging +16.8 margin with 16.16-point residual SD; a normal-residual read is ~84.6% before uncertainty haircut.
- Presbyterian's recent seven-game offense is stronger by EPA: +0.0546 per play versus Valparaiso's -0.0333, and Presbyterian is 3-2 over its last five.
BETALAB 6.0- PMUS Valparaiso NO costs 56.5¢; fair price is 61.0¢, equivalent to approximately -156.
- Valparaiso leads SRS by 17.2 points and has major team-grade advantages: 83.8 overall versus 69.9, defense 86.4 versus 69.5.
- Presbyterian has the better 2026 offense profile: 0.055 EPA/play, 47.2% success and 11.7% explosiveness versus Valparaiso's -0.033, 43.0% and 8.5%.
- Presbyterian Blue Hose spread +4−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Personnel gate cleared: Landon Sharpe led Presbyterian's latest box row with 34 attempts and is identified as its quarterback in the fresh official PC check; Rowan Keefe led Valpo with 27 and is the official preview's projected starter.
- Most likely loss: Valparaiso's superior defense turns Presbyterian's 0.1886 defensive EPA allowed into a 5-plus-point home win.
Long Way Home- The +4 contract is the more likely outcome yet is offered at the lower implied price than ProphetX's +2.5 rung; that ladder inversion is the specific mispricing.
- PROJECTION supports the same side: Presbyterian averages +0.0546 offensive EPA/play, 47.2% success and 11.7% explosiveness versus Valparaiso's -0.0333, 43.0% and 8.5%.
- Most likely loss: Presbyterian's defense allows +0.1886 EPA/play versus Valparaiso's +0.0089, letting the home team win by five or more.
- Valparaiso −3+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Valparaiso -3 wins at margins of 4+, pushes on exactly a 3-point win, and loses at margins 0-2 or a Presbyterian win.
- cfb_query 2019-25: exact final margin 3 occurred in 590 games, 9.828% of historical completed-game margins.
- ProphetX prices Valparaiso -3 at 51.69c (-107) versus Valparaiso -3.5 at 60.63c (-154); both win at margin 4+, but only -3 pushes at 3.
- No independent projection model; the 58% strict-win estimate conservatively leans on ProphetX's adjacent -3.5 quote, not a matchup forecast.
Questions
Who won Presbyterian vs. Valparaiso?
The Valparaiso won 24–7 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.