Sacramento State vs. Ball StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScheumann Stadium

Sacramento State1-6

17–34Final

Ball State2-5

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
SACR	3	7	7	0	17
BALL	0	20	7	7	34

Top model pick, graded

Won

Ball State Cardinals −14.5 50¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 9-6 on this game · +9% return

Ball State Cardinals spread −14.53 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsSaturday Board, Long Way Home +1
Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: Ball State's poor defense, allowing 0.29 EPA/play, gives Sacramento State short fields and keeps the margin at 14 or fewer.
Long Way Home
- ESPN's pregame model projects Ball State by 16.34 points, 1.84 above the posted spread.
- Current FPI ratings favor Ball State by 11.73 points, while SP+ and SRS also favor Ball State; the composite read supports a modest cover edge.
- Most likely loss: Ball State wins but Sacramento State stays within 14 points, aided by a late backdoor score.
ProphetX Pairs
- FPI rates Ball State -20.90 versus Sacramento State -32.63; SP+ also favors Ball State, -21.5 versus -26.1.
- Sacramento State's expected QB is unresolved: the official preview did not name a starter, and its lineup report has no observed availability report.
Under 51 total2 models agree
0%Push
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, ProphetX CFB Lines
Why 2 models like it
Drift
- Seven-game scoring averages are Ball State 20.3 and Sacramento State 15.0, a 35.3-point combined baseline versus 51.
- Both offenses are modest by efficiency: Ball State +0.08 EPA/play and Sacramento State -0.07; neither sustains a strong scoring profile.
- Ball State allows +0.29 defensive EPA/play, the clearest route to Sacramento State scoring above expectation.
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Pinnacle exact 51 is Over -112 / Under -104; devigged Pinnacle Under probability is 49.1%.
- Current rows average 67.9 Sacramento State plays and 65.7 Ball State plays, but PPD averages only 1.10 and 1.78.
- Most likely loss: Ball State's offense exploits Sacramento State's defensive inefficiency and creates short-field scoring.
Ball State Cardinals −14.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Sacramento State Hornets to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 16¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle same-game reference is Sacramento State +473 versus Ball State -601; devigged Sacramento State is 16.9%.
- VALUE convergence: Ball State has allowed 0.29 defensive EPA/play and 37.9 points per game; Sacramento State’s 67.9-play profile can keep the dog live.
- Most likely loss: Ball State’s stronger recent offense and home field turn the projected close-to-moderate margin into a decisive win.
Ball State Cardinals −17.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Novig
Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Fox Sports lists Jackson Sharman and Keldric Luster as the starting quarterbacks.
- Warehouse lineup status remains expected, so late warmup scratches are unknown.
Ball State Cardinals 1H spread NO 9.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 4,604-game 2022, 26 signed home-margin sample has SD 22.35; sqrt-half scaling gives σ1H 15.81.
- points-for/against blend plus 8.63-point empirical home effect gives full-game μ +8.70, or first-half μ +4.35.
- Pinnacle’s full-game Ball State -14.5 scales to +7.25 at halftime; with the same σ, NO is approximately 55.7%, directionally agreeing.
- Only seven 2026 games per team inform the matchup blend; schedule adjustment is noisy and the simple PF/PA model may understate Ball State strength.

Show all 14 picks

Sacramento State Hornets spread +15
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Simple offense-defense matchup composites are close: Sacramento State +0.22 versus Ball State +0.24 EPA/play, not a clean 15-point separation.
- PFF gives Sacramento State the passing-grade edge, 73.1 to 62.1, and offense edge, 70.7 to 67.2; Ball State's 76.6 pass-rush grade is the counterweight.
- QB gate cleared: latest box leaders were Jackson Sharman (21 attempts) and Keldric Luster (24); Fox's current game listing identifies both as starters.
- Sacramento State is 0-5 in its last five with a -33.0 average scoring margin; Ball State's recent 1-4 mark may still understate the talent gap.
Total points under 49
−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Under 49 also has 3 book levels versus over 49's 2; all three measures align on the under.
- Reference price is ProphetX +126 / 44.25 cents; backing under 49, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is ProphetX venue self-reference only; no independent projection edge or sharp-reference claim is being made.
Total Points under 54.5Favorite
+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Clean seven-game 2026 samples average 28.04/28.11 seconds per play, 9.2%/11.4% explosiveness and 45.8%/43.5% success.
- Scoring rates are modest: Sacramento State averages 1.10 points per drive; Ball State averages 1.78 across 67.9/65.7 plays.
- Ball State allows +0.29 defensive EPA per play, but Sacramento State's low scoring profile limits the likely contribution from the underdog.
- Most likely loss: Ball State's +0.29 defensive EPA allowed creates short fields and pushes the total above 54.5.
Ball State Cardinals to winFavorite
+17%Won
Taken at −600 on DraftKings
Brewing CFB MoneylinesUp 21% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ball State leads all current rating models: FPI -20.9 vs -32.6; SP+ -21.5 vs -26.1; SRS -15.4 vs -28.7.
- Both teams have losing 2026 records, and Ball State's recent defense allowed 0.25 EPA/play in the preview window.
Game total under 52
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Seven-game FBS sample: Sacramento State posts -0.07 EPA/play, 45.8% success, and 9.2% explosiveness.
- Both offenses operate near 24.5 seconds per play; Sacramento’s 15.0 season points per game anchors a sub-52 script.
- QB gate cleared: Fox lists Jackson Sharman and Keldric Luster as the starters; latest boxes show 21 and 24 pass attempts.
- Most likely loss: Ball State converts Sacramento State’s +0.17 defensive EPA/play allowed into 30-plus points.
First-half total over 26.5 points
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 12.14 projected first-half drives: Ball State 5.43, Sacramento State 6.71 across seven-game samples.
- Valid season pace averages 28.1 seconds/play for Ball State and 28.0 for Sacramento State; no weather possession cut.
- Derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; this is capped at LEAN.
Game total over 51.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Simple scoring blend projects about 53 points: Ball State (20.3 scored + 32.7 allowed)/2 ≈ 26.5; Sacramento State (15.0 + 37.9)/2 ≈ 26.5.
- Both teams play near 24.5 seconds per snap; season PROE is +0.13 for Ball State and +0.17 for Sacramento State.
- QB check: latest box leaders are Jackson Sharman (21 attempts) and Keldric Luster (24); a FOX game preview lists both as starting quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: the teams combine for 51 points or fewer; Sacramento State has scored 10 or less in four of its last five games.
Game total under 51.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Related team ladders price Sacramento State under 17.5 at -114 and Ball State under 33.5 at -112.
- Sacramento State averaged 7.2 points across its last five and 15.0 across seven 2026 games.
- Ball State averaged 19.6 points across its last five; ESPN projects a 16.34-point margin, supporting a low-output underdog script.
- Most likely loss: Ball State's weak defense permits Sacramento State to score above its recent offensive baseline.

Questions

Who won Sacramento State vs. Ball State?

Ball State won 34-17 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.