Samford vs. FurmanFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPaladin Stadium
Samford1–6
13–6Final
Furman2–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAMF | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| FURM | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal under 43.5 −110
Why Tempo Gap likes it: Fair total 40.0 points: approximately 24.7 projected drives at 1.63 opponent-adjusted points per drive.
Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-1 on this game · +63% return
- Furman Paladins to win−100%Lost
Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Polymarket US Furman cost rose from 76.25c at 10:19 to 78.25c at 10:22; current quoted cost is 78.5c.
- Furman is at home; Samford is 1-6 over its last seven while Furman is 2-5, with team grades favoring Furman 74.0 to 70.4.
- Total under 43.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 40.0 points: approximately 24.7 projected drives at 1.63 opponent-adjusted points per drive.
- Full-coverage sample: both teams have 7 current-season games; Samford's last 3 produced 0.857 points per drive and 0.379 success rate.
- Explosiveness is modest: Samford 9.1% and Furman 9.9% current-season explosive-play rates; both offenses are below-average in EPA/play.
- Samford's defense allows 2.21 points per opponent drive, so Furman could exceed the efficiency baseline with short fields or explosive gains.
- Samford Bulldogs +8.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Samford’s last-five margin is -6.6 versus Furman’s -2.4; home adjustment still projects near a one-score game.
- Furman’s PFF grade is 74.0 versus Samford’s 70.4, while SRS ratings are nearly even: -28.6 versus -29.9.
- Uncertainty band is 48%-58%; the FCS sample is thin and no ESPN pregame model covers this game.
- Game total under 43.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The season scoring average is only 35.0 combined points: Furman 16.4 and Samford 18.6.
- Recent five-game scoring averages imply a low-40s environment, with Furman scoring 17.2 and allowing 21.6.
- Furman’s offense is -0.1243 EPA/play over its last five, while Samford’s defense allowed +0.1157; sustained drives are the central concern for the over.
- Samford’s defense has allowed 0.1157 EPA/play over its last five, so Furman can score efficiently if short fields appear.
- Samford Bulldogs +9.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent opponent-adjusted form favors Samford: +0.0387 offensive EPA/play versus Furman -0.1243 over the last five.
- Season offense is materially better for Samford (-0.0037 EPA/play versus Furman -0.1126), while Furman’s defensive edge is not large enough to justify 9.5 points.
- SRS is nearly even: Furman -28.6 versus Samford -29.9; the market centers Furman around -8.5.
- Furman owns major trench indicators: 77.9 pass-block and 86.6 defense grades versus Samford’s 50.6 pass-block and 79.0 defense.
- Samford Bulldogs spread +10.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices Samford +8.5 at -162 (61.83c), making the less-protected +10.5 rung anomalously cheaper.
- The +9.5 rung is +105 (48.78c), then +10.5 jumps to -104; this non-monotonic ladder signals fragmented order flow.
- Samford's recent -6.6 average margin and Furman's -2.4 do not support treating a 10.5-point home spread as routine.
- Most likely loss: Furman's home defense exploits Samford's volatility and wins by 11 or more.
Questions
Who won Samford vs. Furman?
The Samford won 13–6 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.