San Diego State vs. Colorado StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCanvas Stadium

San Diego State3–4

49–56Final

Colorado State2–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
SDSU	14	10	10	15	49
CSU	14	21	7	14	56

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 60 45¢

Why Key Number CFB likes it: 2026 scoring blend: CSU 35.7 scored/43.2 allowed; SDSU 23.3/33.3, implying roughly 68 combined.

Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-2 on this game · +43% return

Colorado State Rams to win2 models agree
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Resting Money
- Book-level count ties 3-3; only two measures agree, weaker than the under-61 configuration.
Long Way Home
- Pinnacle also posts Colorado State +101; ProphetX offers the more favorable +104.
- Colorado State is 2-2 at home in 2026; San Diego State is 0-3 on the road, losing those games by 18, 25, and 52.
- Colorado State is 1-4 in its last five with a -13.4 average margin and just lost 27-66.
Total points under 61
−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Across ladder: under $2,560 depth versus over $1,980; depth ratio 1.29; book levels 3 versus 2.
- No independent book prices the exact 61 rung; the displayed depth is venue self-reference and may be withdrawn or stale.
Game total over 60
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 scoring blend: CSU 35.7 scored/43.2 allowed; SDSU 23.3/33.3, implying roughly 68 combined.
- CSU offense posts +0.243 EPA/play and +17.3% PROE; SDSU defense allows +0.140 EPA/play.
- The 59.5-to-60 over ladder gap costs only 1.55 probability points, a modest non-key-number adjustment.
- Most likely loss: the teams combine for 60 or fewer; exactly 60 is a push.
Colorado State Rams spread +3.5
+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current form favors a competitive CSU path: Rams average +0.243 offensive EPA/play and 35.7 points; SDSU averages -0.068 EPA/play and 23.3 points.
- Pinnacle and DraftKings both price Colorado State +1.5, corroborating the Rams-side direction; ProphetX's ML is only SDSU -108.
- Fresh QB check: Stone Saunders is expected to make SDSU's first start, while Heuss Hejny is expected back for CSU after missing three games.
- Most likely loss: San Diego State wins by four or more, especially if Saunders struggles in his first start.
First-half total under 37.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current 14 points after four first-quarter drives is hot, but the 37.5 rung remains 5.8 points above the derived first-half reference.
- The live game already has 14 points; another quick touchdown and compressed clock could erase the cushion.
Colorado State Rams spread −1
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Colorado State’s home split is 35.5 points and +0.269 offensive EPA/play across four games.
- San Diego State’s away split is 13.3 points, -0.233 offensive EPA/play, and 45.0 points allowed across three games.
- The rough split-based projection makes Colorado State a clear favorite, leaving value against a near-pick’em spread.
- Most likely loss: Colorado State’s defense repeats its recent collapse, allowing San Diego State to win outright or force a close finish.

Questions

Who won San Diego State vs. Colorado State?

The Colorado State won 56–49 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.