San Diego vs. DaytonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalWelcome Stadium
San Diego3–4
32–37Final
Dayton5–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN | 10 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 32 |
| DAYT | 7 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 37 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDayton Flyers −4.5 52¢
Why BETALAB 6.0 likes it: Verified: Dayton's 2026 defensive EPA allowed is -0.0795/play versus San Diego's +0.2674 over six/seven games.
BETALAB 6.0Down 10% this season · 273 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −32% return
- Dayton Flyers spread −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs- Dayton's 2026 defense is -0.0795 EPA/play versus San Diego allowing +0.2674; the matchup gap supports Dayton clearing 5.5.
- Dayton is 5-1 with a +13.2 recent scoring margin; San Diego is 3-4 with a -8.7 recent margin.
- Partial-tier data: neither team has a qualifying FBS opponent sample, so schedule strength is unresolved.
Long Way Home- PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, own estimate is 57% for Dayton to cover -5.5; no same-line sharp price is posted.
- Dayton's SRS rating is -36.6 versus San Diego's -47.1, a 10.5-point quality gap before home context.
- Both depth charts are expected with observed_at null; the college lineup feed provides no confirmed game-day availability.
- Dayton Flyers −4.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Verified: Dayton's 2026 defensive EPA allowed is -0.0795/play versus San Diego's +0.2674 over six/seven games.
- Verified: Dayton's last-five scoring margin is +11.2, compared with San Diego's +2.6; Dayton is home.
- Verified: 2026 SRS rates Dayton -36.6 and San Diego -47.1, a 10.5-point gap before home adjustment.
- Both quarterbacks are only expected by the depth-chart feed; no game-specific availability report was observed.
- Game total under 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dayton’s defense allows -0.0795 EPA/play and 18.0 points per game; both current quarterbacks cleared the box-plus-official-source gate.
- Most likely loss: San Diego’s weak defense and Dayton’s 31.2-point offense push the total to 56 or higher.
- Dayton Flyers to win+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; reference label: NO REFERENCE, no same-line sharp moneyline was posted.
- Dayton's live SRS is -36.6 versus San Diego's -47.1, a 10.5-point team-quality gap.
- Dayton is 6-1 with a +13.2 L6 scoring margin; San Diego is 3-4 with a -8.7 L7 margin.
- Most likely loss: San Diego's volatile offense creates explosive plays while Dayton's offense repeats its negative-EPA outings.
Questions
Who won San Diego vs. Dayton?
The Dayton won 37–32 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.