San José State vs. NevadaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMackay Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| NEV | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-3 on this game · −100% return
- San José State Spartans over +5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check: backing San José State +5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book levels do not corroborate the depth asymmetry: both sides show 3 levels.
- Total points over 46−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, providing no third-measure corroboration; the core thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total pairing is the two-measure signal.
- Directional coherence check: backing Over 46, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference with no independent sharp reference; the two-measure read is a hypothesis, not demonstrated predictive edge.
- San José State Spartans spread +4−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- San José State's road split is +0.17 offensive EPA/play, 48.7% success, and +1.75 average margin across four games.
- Nevada is 1-4 with a -4.0 average margin recently; its home split is only 47.6% success despite a +6.3 margin in three games.
- Own cover estimate is 52%; the projection edge is the Spartans' stronger road efficiency and the venue's four-point rung versus the sharp five-and-a-half.
- Most likely loss: Nevada's home offense turns its +6.3 home margin into a win by five or more.
Questions
Who won San José State vs. Nevada?
Nevada won 28-13 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.