Southeast Missouri State vs. Eastern IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalO'Brien Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 3 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
| EAST | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 49.5 −108
Why Tempo Gap likes it: Fair total 45.5 versus 49.5: a 4.0-point gap; full coverage with seven current-season games per team.
Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +19% return
- Game total under 49.5+93%Won
Taken at −108 on BetMGM
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 45.5 versus 49.5: a 4.0-point gap; full coverage with seven current-season games per team.
- Tempo favors limited possessions: SEMO averages 73.3 snaps/game, but EIU averages 56.4 snaps and 40.0 seconds/snap.
- Opponent-adjusted estimate is about 2.05 and 1.50 points/drive, producing roughly 45.5 points across expected possessions.
- Expected, not confirmed, quarterbacks are Cole LaCrue and Braylen Ragland; a late change would invalidate the estimate.
- Southeast Missouri State to win+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both positions remain open and agree on the same liquid full-game moneyline.
- Southeast Missouri State Redhawks −7+93%Won
Taken at −108 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Research grade 73/100: SRS rates SEMO -21.3 versus EIU -38.2, a 16.9-point neutral gap.
- Adding a conservative 2.5 home-field adjustment gives a 14.4-point projected margin versus BetMGM's -7.
- Last-five EPA: SEMO +0.05 offense/-0.05 defense; EIU -0.07 offense/+0.11 defense.
- Only seven 2026 regular-season games per team; combined empirical margin standard deviation is 30.4 points.
- Southeast Missouri State Redhawks −6.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS rates SEMO -21.3 versus EIU -38.2, a 16.9-point neutral-field gap.
- Season opponent-adjusted EPA: SEMO offense +0.01 and defense allowed +0.01 per play; EIU is -0.03 and +0.11.
- SEMO leads season success rate 43.7% to 39.7% and points per drive 1.97 to 1.66.
- Both quarterbacks are expected, not officially confirmed; FCS has no official availability feed for this game.
- Eastern Illinois +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eastern Illinois +7 pushes if Southeast Missouri State wins by exactly 7; +7.5 wins that exact margin.
- The 0.20c price gap is small and can be erased by rounding, exchange friction, or a rapid reprice.
- Eastern Illinois Panthers spread +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection is not an upset call: SEMO's 2026 EPA profile is stronger, but EIU's slower home setting and seven-point cushion fit the rung.
- Most likely loss: Southeast Missouri State wins by eight or more.
Questions
Who won Southeast Missouri State vs. Eastern Illinois?
Southeast Missouri State won 20-10 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.