Southern Utah vs. IdahoFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalKibbie Dome
Southern Utah3–4
28–31Final
Idaho2–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 0 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 28 |
| IDAH | 3 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 31 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-3 on this game · −100% return
- Southern Utah Thunderbirds to win−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Picks With Pink Grading SystemWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Five-book devigged reference (DK, FanDuel, betMGM, betRivers, Caesars) makes Southern Utah 42.8%; model-market gap is 3.2 points.
- Power inputs favor Southern Utah: SRS -27.8 versus Idaho -32.4, and season net EPA is -0.017 versus -0.104.
- Idaho owns the stronger offense: .175 EPA/play and .503 success versus Southern Utah's .147 and .453, plus home field.
Picks With Pink Grading System- SRS rates Southern Utah -27.8 versus Idaho -32.4, a 4.6-point neutral-field edge.
- Normal margin model: 3-point home adjustment, projected Southern Utah margin +1.6; pooled 2026 margin SD 18.6 across 7 games each.
- Only seven 2026 games per team; the normal approximation is noisy and uncalibrated.
- Idaho Vandals spread −30%Push
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Idaho's 2026 offense leads Southern Utah in EPA/play (0.175 vs 0.147), success rate (50.3% vs 45.3%) and PROE (+13.4% vs -2.0%); home field supports the favorite direction.
- latest box data leads with Joshua Wood and Will Burns; a fresh Fox Sports matchup listing 11 hours ago names both as starting quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: Southern Utah wins outright or Idaho wins by one or two; the thin edge depends on a key-number margin.
- Idaho Vandals spread −3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Idaho -3 is +100, but the stricter -3.5 is +118; the half-point ladder is inverted.
- The reverse ladder also inverts: Southern Utah +3 is -109, while +3.5 is -125, confirming a distorted rung rather than normal line movement.
- Idaho’s current-season offense is +0.175 EPA/play with 50.3% success, versus Southern Utah at +0.147 and 45.3%; home field supports the direction.
- Most likely loss: Idaho wins by exactly three or fewer, with the extra half-point deciding the ticket.
Questions
Who won Southern Utah vs. Idaho?
The Idaho won 31–28 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.