St. Thomas vs. MaristFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field
St. Thomas5–2
35–13Final
Marist4–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST | 0 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 35 |
| MARI | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSt. Thomas Tommies spread −4 52¢
Why Drift likes it: Seven-game EPA: St. Thomas offense .196 versus Marist .079; success .487 versus .454; explosive rate .160 versus .128.
DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · −9% return
- St. Thomas Tommies spread −4+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Seven-game EPA: St. Thomas offense .196 versus Marist .079; success .487 versus .454; explosive rate .160 versus .128.
- St. Thomas last played Oct. 10 while Marist played Oct. 17; the extra rest supports the road side.
- Marist has the better defense: allowed EPA -0.003 versus St. Thomas .080; home field can erase the efficiency edge.
Long Way Home- PROJECTION; reference label: SHARP REFERENCE, St. Thomas is 4-1 with a +17.2 recent scoring margin versus Marist 3-2 and +7.4.
- Pinnacle posts St. Thomas -4 at -115; ProphetX offers the same number at -107.
- Most likely loss: Marist wins outright or loses by fewer than four points in a one-score game.
- Marist Red Foxes spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 51c price implies 51.0% before venue costs; BETALAB model estimates Marist +3.5 covers 56%.
- Marist owns the stronger defense: 90.8 team grade versus St. Thomas' 77.8, with recent defensive EPA -0.0455 versus +0.0372 allowed.
- Home field and near-equal overall grades (Marist 85.6, St. Thomas 84.8) offset St. Thomas' stronger offense and recent form.
- St. Thomas' season offense is materially better: +0.196 EPA/play versus Marist's +0.079, with a 0.160 versus 0.128 explosive-play rate.
- St. Thomas Tommies to win+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS rates St. Thomas -28.9 versus Marist -43.0, a 14.1-point team-strength gap before home field.
- Last-7 adjusted offense EPA/play favors St. Thomas 0.1957 to 0.0794; success rate leads 48.7% to 45.4%.
- St. Thomas enters 5-2 with a 4-1 recent run, while Marist is 4-3 and faces the stronger recent offense.
- Both quarterback assignments are expected rather than officially confirmed; no current FCS injury report covers this game.
- Game total over 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages total 63.1 points: St. Thomas 37.1 and Marist 26.0 through seven games.
- Combined offensive EPA/play is +0.2751; St. Thomas adds a 0.1597 explosive-play rate and Marist 0.1280.
- CFB total histogram: 52 points occurred 294/11,315 games; 55 occurred 429, versus 221 at 47.
- Most likely loss: Marist's slower, less efficient offense stalls and the total lands in the 45-51 range.
- Total points over 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Seven-game scoring averages total 63.1 points: St. Thomas 37.1 and Marist 26.0, 10.6 above this rung.
- Recent five-game scoring averages are 45.4 for St. Thomas and 30.4 for Marist, supporting a higher-scoring script despite opponent-adjustment uncertainty.
- Most likely loss: Marist's defense, allowing 19.6 points per game, suppresses St. Thomas and the total finishes 52 or lower.
Questions
Who won St. Thomas vs. Marist?
The St. Thomas won 35–13 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.