Stetson vs. Morehead StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPhil Simms Stadium
Stetson1–6
31–38Final
Morehead State1–6
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STET | 7 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
| MORE | 14 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMorehead State Eagles −1.5 −113
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Morehead's home split: +0.160 offensive EPA/play, .470 success rate, and 2.37 points/drive across three games.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · +26% return
- Morehead State Eagles −1.5+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Picks With Pink Grading SystemWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Morehead's home split: +0.160 offensive EPA/play, .470 success rate, and 2.37 points/drive across three games.
- Stetson's road split: -0.047 offensive EPA/play, .407 success rate, and 1.33 points/drive across four games.
- The quarterback listing is live but both warehouse lineup statuses remain expected rather than officially confirmed.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Own normal-margin model: 58.4% cover probability at -1.5, +8.1 percentage points versus the 50.3% exact-line market fair probability.
- Blended expected margin is Morehead State +12.3: SRS gap +9.7 and current-season home-adjusted margin +14.9, averaged.
- Only seven 2026 games per team feed the margin sample; combined empirical margin SD is 50.8 points and schedule strength differs.
- Stetson Hatters to win−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Stetson vs. Morehead State?
The Morehead State won 38–31 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.