Stonehill vs. Long Island UniversityFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalShark Stadium
Stonehill2–5
18–14Final
Long Island University3–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STON | 5 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 18 |
| LONG | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonStonehill Skyhawks to win 45¢
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Research grade 72 (B): model and value gates pass; no player-prop exact-line gate applies to this team market.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-1 on this game · +69% return
- Stonehill Skyhawks to win+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB Heater +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Research grade 72 (B): model and value gates pass; no player-prop exact-line gate applies to this team market.
- Season scoring/allowing blend projects Stonehill 21.9, LIU 18.8; the +3.1 expected margin implies 54.7%, rounded to 55%.
- Only 7 Stonehill and 8 LIU current-season games; opponent quality and regime differences are material.
CFB Heater- LIU's recent profile is better: 3-2 over its last five with a -2.0 average margin versus Stonehill's 1-4 and -8.6.
Long Way Home- ESPN SRS rates Stonehill -34.5 versus LIU -41.6, a 7.1-point Stonehill rating advantage before home field.
- Stonehill's 2026 defense has allowed +0.0012 EPA/play versus LIU's +0.0696; lower is better, supporting the upset path.
- Most likely loss: LIU wins outright; its home field and current market favoritism may outweigh Stonehill's rating and defensive edges.
- Long Island University Sharks spread −2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model estimate: LIU margin +5.5; 57% cover probability versus 51.0% raw break-even.
- Recent LIU: 3-2 with -2.0 average margin; Stonehill: 1-4 with -8.6 average margin.
- Recent defensive EPA allowed: LIU -0.0205 versus Stonehill +0.0633; negative is better.
- Five-game samples are noisy; LIU's broader preview form is 3-5 with a -12.2 margin.
- Game total under 37.5+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both offenses are negative EPA/play: Stonehill -0.080 and LIU -0.103; season scoring averages combine to only 31.5 points.
- QB gate: latest box leaders Jack O'Connell had 29 attempts and Luca Stanzani 17; a six-hour web result listed both as starters.
- Most likely loss: 38 or more points; the under 37.5 loses immediately at 38.
- Total points under 38.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; reference label: SHARP REFERENCE, 2026 scoring averages are 14.625 PPG for LIU and 16.857 for Stonehill, a 31.482 combined baseline.
- Both offenses are negative in EPA/play: LIU -0.103 and Stonehill -0.080; neither profile supports a routine high-scoring script.
- Pinnacle posts 37.5 at -115 and FanDuel 36.5 at -110; ProphetX gives under 38.5 at -113, the best number observed.
- Most likely loss: short fields, turnovers, or explosive plays overcome both offenses’ poor efficiency.
Questions
Who won Stonehill vs. Long Island University?
The Stonehill won 18–14 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.