Tarleton State vs. West GeorgiaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUniversity Stadium (GA)

Tarleton State7–0

49–6Final

West Georgia1–6

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
TARL	7	14	14	14	49
WEST	6	0	0	0	6

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 61.5 −110

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 57.4-point opponent-adjusted total projection: Tarleton 36.1, West Georgia 21.3.

Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-3 on this game · +25% return

Game total under 59.52 models agree
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Key Number CFB
- Tarleton and West Georgia average 40.9 and 17.6 points scored per game; the combined 58.4-point scoring baseline is below 59.5.
- Pinnacle's reference total is 59.5 while DraftKings is 61.5, corroborating a lower projection than the headline market.
- Tarleton's recent offense is explosive, and a 40-plus-point road performance can push this over by itself.
Long Way Home
- Seven-game scoring averages project 58.43 total points: Tarleton State 40.86 plus West Georgia 17.57, 1.07 below the line.
- West Georgia's offense ranks poorly in this sample: -0.0502 EPA/play, 42.3% success rate, and 17.6 points per game.
- Most likely loss: Tarleton State's 40.9-point offense adds explosive plays or short-field scores and West Georgia contributes enough to reach 60.
Game total under 61.5
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 57.4-point opponent-adjusted total projection: Tarleton 36.1, West Georgia 21.3.
- Under 61.5 at -110 needs 52.4%; normal model estimates 57.6% from seven-game total samples.
- Tarleton is 7-0 with +15.9 average margin over the last seven; West Georgia is 1-6 with -13.7.
- The 57.6% estimate assumes independent, approximately normal total distributions; the sample is only seven games per team.
West Georgia Wolves to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so two measures support the read and the third does not corroborate it.
- Backing West Georgia, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is ProphetX's own book, not an independent sharp reference; displayed depth can cancel, stale, or reflect concentrated participants.
Under 58.5 total points (58 is a win; no push)
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Under 58.5 wins at exactly 58; it has no push, while under 58 refunds exactly 58.
- exact-58 totals occurred in 275/10,371 games, a 2.652% push mass.
- ProphetX priced under 58.5 at 47.17¢ (+114), versus under 58 at 53.05¢ (-113).
- The 2.652% exact-58 rate is a historical CFB aggregate, not matchup-specific.
West Georgia Wolves spread +24 (push if Tarleton wins by exactly 24)
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- West Georgia +24 wins through 23; Tarleton winning by exactly 24 is a push/refund.
- exact-24 margin was 301/10,371 games, a 2.902% push mass.
- ProphetX priced +24 at 53.05¢ (-113), versus +23.5 at 75.31¢ (-305).
- The +23.5 ProphetX offer may be isolated despite the fresh board timestamp and could reprice immediately.
West Georgia Wolves spread +24
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Sharp references cluster Tarleton around -22.5 to -23.5; +24 adds key-number protection without opposing the market's favorite direction.
- QB gate checked: Kaden Anderson and Colton FitzGerald led their teams' latest pass-attempt rows and were corroborated by fresh official team previews.
- Most likely loss: Tarleton's 7-0 form overwhelms West Georgia's 1-6 profile and produces a 25-point win.

Show all 7 picks

Tarleton State Texans spread −22.5
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Tarleton is 7-0 with +15.9 average margin over seven; West Georgia is 1-6 at -13.7.
- Tarleton averages 40.86 points, +0.288 offensive EPA/play, .525 success rate, and .183 explosive rate.
- West Georgia averages 17.57 points with -0.050 offensive EPA/play and allows 31.29 points per game.
- Most likely loss: Tarleton wins but West Georgia backdoors the margin below 23 points.

Questions

Who won Tarleton State vs. West Georgia?

The Tarleton State won 49–6 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.