Tennessee Tech vs. The CitadelFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJohnson Hagood Stadium
Tennessee Tech6-1
28–13Final
The Citadel2-5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| THE | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTennessee Tech Golden Eagles to win 89¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Supporting context: Tennessee Tech is 6-1 with +0.11 recent offensive EPA/play; The Citadel is 2-5 and -0.03.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · −33% return
- Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles to win+12%Won
Taken at 89¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Supporting context: Tennessee Tech is 6-1 with +0.11 recent offensive EPA/play; The Citadel is 2-5 and -0.03.
- The 89c price leaves limited room; one upset or late-game variance loses the contract.
- Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles win by over 16.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6-1 Tennessee Tech versus 2-5 Citadel; season scoring margins are +11.3 versus -15.3.
- Season EPA/play is +0.14 offense and +0.06 defense allowed for Tennessee Tech, versus +0.03 and +0.13 for Citadel.
- SRS ratings are -8.4 versus -39.4, a 31.0-point gap; PFF overall grades are 86.5 versus 63.1.
- Both teams have only seven 2026 games; the normal-tail distribution is an assumption, not a calibrated model.
- Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles −17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 SRS gap is 31.0 points (-8.4 Tennessee Tech versus -39.4 The Citadel); current records are 6-1 versus 2-5.
- Recent EPA profile favors Tennessee Tech: offense +0.11/play and 49.1% success versus The Citadel -0.03 and 41.6%; PFF overall grades are 86.5 versus 63.1.
- The expected college lineup is not official; cfb_game_day_lineup has no observed availability report, so an unreported quarterback or key-player change could move the spread materially.
- The Citadel Bulldogs spread +18.5+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The +17.5/+18.5 ladder gap is only 0.79 probability points, while the CFB histogram records 273 regular/postseason games at exact margin 18; the extra half-point is underpaid.
- Tennessee Tech is the rightful favorite, but its +11.3 recent scoring margin versus Citadel's -15.3 does not justify ignoring the home underdog's 18.5-point cushion.
- Sharp references cluster around 17.5, 18.5, corroborating the market level; QB gate cleared with Jax Leatherwood and Quentin Hayes as latest pass leaders and Fox's fresh pregame starter listing.
- Most likely loss: Tennessee Tech wins by 19 or more, with Citadel's 2-5 record and -15.3 recent margin showing a wide downside.
Questions
Who won Tennessee Tech vs. The Citadel?
Tennessee Tech won 28-13 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.