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Tennessee vs. South CarolinaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWilliams-Brice Stadium
Tennessee6-1
24–27Final
South Carolina3-3
Score by period
Team1234T
TENN0210324
SC14301027

Top model pick, graded

Won

Mazeo Bennett Jr. over 4.5 receptions +126

Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: Target share over the last 3 qualifying games: 18.2%, 32.4%, 25.7% (6/33, 12/37, 9/35); mean 25.4%, CV 22.9%.

Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-14 on this game · −16% return

  1. Tennessee Volunteers to win5 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on DraftKings

    5 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, BETALAB 6.0 +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
      • Both lineups remain expected rather than officially confirmed; a late QB or trench change would materially alter the matchup.
      BETALAB 6.0
      • 2026 team data: Tennessee defense allowed -0.04 EPA/play vs South Carolina +0.11; Tennessee is 6-1 with +18.7 average margin vs 3-3 and +12.2.
      • Moneyline has the cleanest supported edge: unlike spread, total, first-half, and first-quarter alternatives, it does not require an unvalidated margin or period distribution.
      • South Carolina is at home and has the stronger current offense: 0.24 EPA/play and 0.14 explosive rate vs Tennessee 0.19 and 0.13.
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • Research grade 74/100 (B): directional gate and independent-value gate clear; no validated weights claimed.
      • Tennessee FPI 17.85 (12th) versus South Carolina 11.58 (29th); 2026 records are 6-1 versus 3-3.
      • Expected, not confirmed, lineups; six official Game Day outs per side include Tennessee OL/WR/TE and South Carolina two OL.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Tennessee's FBS-only defense allows -0.01 EPA/play versus South Carolina allowing +0.13, a 0.14 EPA/play defensive gap.
      • Tennessee has the stronger FBS-only success profile defensively and the healthier recent form: 6-1 overall versus South Carolina's 3-3.
      • South Carolina's FBS offense is stronger: +0.25 EPA/play and 14.2% explosiveness versus Tennessee's +0.15 and 11.0%.
    • Tennessee Volunteers spread +2.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      2 modelsEPA Mismatch, Long Week
      Why 2 models like it
      EPA Mismatch
      • Tennessee leads current FPI 17.85-11.58, SP+ 17.5-10.0, and SRS 18.9-8.7.
      • Tennessee's season defensive EPA allowed is -0.04 versus South Carolina's +0.11; recent three-game gap is larger.
      • South Carolina is home and has 14 days rest versus Tennessee's seven.
      Long Week
      • Tennessee posts +0.19 offensive EPA/play and -0.04 defensive EPA allowed; South Carolina is +0.24 and +0.11.
      • Quality test favors Tennessee: it beat Alabama 26-10 and Auburn; South Carolina lost to Alabama, Mississippi State, and Kentucky.
      • South Carolina has the bye and home field; the rest gap could erase Tennessee's efficiency advantage.
    • South Carolina Gamecocks to win2 models agree
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Resting Money
      Why 2 models like it
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • Six/seven-game 2026 FBS sample: South Carolina offense +0.24 EPA/play versus Tennessee defense -0.04 allowed (+0.28 composite); Tennessee offense +0.19 versus South Carolina defense +0.11 allowed (+0.08).
      • South Carolina has 14 days of rest versus Tennessee's seven and owns home field; Sellers and MacIntyre were verified through current box data and live web reports.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's 90.5 PFF defense and -0.04 EPA allowed suppress South Carolina, while MacIntyre avoids mistakes and Tennessee wins outright.
      Resting Money
      • ProphetX book_levels: South Carolina 3 versus Tennessee 3; the thin-at-quote plus deep-total pairing supplies two supporting measures.
      • Directional coherence check: backing South Carolina Gamecocks, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • This is venue self-reference, not an independent sharp reference; no projection probability is being claimed.
    • Mazeo Bennett Jr. over 4.5 receptionsHigh conviction
      +126%Won

      Taken at +126 on FanDuel

      Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Target share over the last 3 qualifying games: 18.2%, 32.4%, 25.7% (6/33, 12/37, 9/35); mean 25.4%, CV 22.9%.
      • Yards per target fell 7.67 to 3.89 from the prior two games while target share remained above the first-game baseline; usage and production diverged.
      • Route participation was 95.8%, 94.6%, and 96.7% across the same three-game window; South Carolina threw 35, 37, and 33 passes, with positive PROE in all three games.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee disrupts Sellers and South Carolina shifts to a run-heavy script, leaving Bennett at four or fewer receptions despite his routes.
    • South Carolina Gamecocks spread −2.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Heater Early BirdUp 91% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Sport-filtered records are positive: ArielFilipino 37-7, 0x418D51 52-0, qwertyuioppp 37-2 in the returned samples.
      • All three hold the exact liquid -2.5 contract; target positions were opened Oct. 22-23 PDT.
      • The sharp-book main spread is South Carolina -2.5, satisfying the look-ahead line-distance gate exactly.
      • College lineup status remains expected rather than confirmed; Carter Miller is only probable at center.
    • Tennessee Volunteers +2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on FanDuel

      Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • +2.5 underdog clears the brief's minimum spread gate.
      • Josh Heupel's combined head-coaching record is 73-28 (72.3%) versus Shane Beamer's 33-30 (52.4%), a 19.9-point career win-rate edge.
      • Tennessee has a +3 season turnover margin in seven games (+0.43/game); South Carolina is -3 in six (-0.50/game).
      • The +2.5 price is below the brief's +3.5 high-conviction threshold.
    Show all 20 picks
    1. Over 50.5 total
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Teams average 148.3 combined plays; pace is 27.2/25.26 seconds per play and points per drive 2.69/3.00.
      • South Carolina allows +0.11 EPA/play versus Tennessee's -0.04; explosive rates are 14.5% and 12.5%, supporting scoring chances.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's -0.04 defensive EPA allowed suppresses South Carolina drives and leaves the total below 51.
    2. Tennessee Volunteers −4.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 33¢ on Novig

      Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle main spread de-vigs South Carolina -2.5 at 49.3%; moving across the 3 key shifts Tennessee's fair by 6 points.
      • Both QB lineup statuses remain expected rather than official; late warmup scratches are unknown.
    3. South Carolina Gamecocks first-half winnerFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

      Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • live first-half distribution is 92% South Carolina, 5% Tennessee, 3% tie.
      • South Carolina leads 14-0 late in Q1; both touchdowns arrived before 8:17, while Tennessee has only four offensive plays.
      • Current-game EPA is +0.94/play for South Carolina versus -0.67 for Tennessee; the direction agrees with the full-game market.
      • No independent first-half sharp reference exists; the derived-reference bar is intentionally raised.
    4. First-half total over 24.5 points
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle full-game 50.5; possession/rate scaling produces 25.6 first-half points, not 25.25.
      • 2026 season: 148.3 combined plays, 26.23-second blended pace, and 24.43 combined drives per game.
      • 12.22 first-half drives before weather; 20-mph gusts and 0% rain trim the estimate 3% to 11.85 drives.
      • The projection is only 1.1 points above 24.5; one empty red-zone trip can erase the edge.
    5. South Carolina Gamecocks under 26.5 team points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on BetMGM

      CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tennessee's defense allows -0.04 EPA/play and carries an 90.5 defensive grade, the clearest unit edge in the matchup.
      • Tennessee has a +18.7 average margin through seven games and plays at 27.21 seconds per play, limiting possessions.
      • South Carolina averages 3.00 points per drive and scored at least 34 in four of six games.
    6. South Carolina Gamecocks −3
      0%Push

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX quote is South Carolina -3 at +114 (46.73 cents). Backing South Carolina -3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so the signal is not corroborated by all three measures.
    7. South Carolina Gamecocks spread +1.5
      +75%Won

      Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The +1 to +1.5 quote rises only 0.74 probability points, below 364/11,316 historical exact-one margin frequency.
      • South Carolina posts +0.24 EPA/play and a .145 explosive rate, versus Tennessee at +0.19 and .125; home field supports a close game.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee wins by two or more and South Carolina's +1.5 cushion fails.
    8. Game total over 50.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season offenses average 33.4 Tennessee points and 37.7 South Carolina points; the matchup projection clears 50.5.
      • Key-number density: exact totals 47 and 51 occurred 203 and 334 times in 10,371 CFB games; 50.5 captures the 51 cluster.
      • Pace/PROE support possessions: Tennessee 27.21 seconds per play and +2.1% PROE; South Carolina 25.26 and +9.1%.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's 90.5 PFF defense and -0.04 defensive EPA allowed suppress South Carolina below 24 points.
    9. Total Points over 50.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current box leaders are George MacIntyre (31 attempts) and LaNorris Sellers (35); current web checks support both as starters.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's -0.04 defensive EPA/play and 27.21-second pace suppress South Carolina below 20 points.
    10. Tennessee Volunteers spread +3
      0%Push

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • only defense: Tennessee allows -0.01 EPA/play versus South Carolina +0.13 across six versus five games.
      • sportsbooks show South Carolina -2.5; context only; ESPN projects Tennessee by 3.23.
      • Quarter-Kelly is 0.8% at a 56% fair estimate; desk cap records 0.5 units.
      • South Carolina is home; Tennessee +3 loses by four or more and pushes at exactly three.
    11. South Carolina Gamecocks first-half spread YES 7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • conditional halftime mean is +10.5 South Carolina after the live 14-0 start, regressing tiny live samples toward season PPD and pace.
      • 3,594 FBS regular-season finals from 2023-26 give full-game signed-margin SD 15.29; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.81, not 7.65.
      • College key mass is computed: exact margins 3 and 7 occurred 350 and 276 times; 7.5 sits immediately beyond the 7-point cluster.
      • The 10.5 mean is conditional and model-sensitive: Tennessee can answer the early 14-0 deficit, while one explosive or special-teams play changes the half.
    12. Braylon Staley under 47.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 5 unders in 7 current-season games at 47.5 yards (71.4%; no pushes).
      • Beta-binomial shrink of the exact-yardage distribution gives 61.5% before matchup adjustment; weak defense trims it to 59%.
      • FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%; the model is +6.2 percentage points and +11.7% relative.
      • South Carolina ranks 94th of 138 FBS teams in defensive EPA allowed, an adverse matchup for an under.
    13. Game total under 54.5
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The live game is 14-0 with 0:29 left in Q1; under 54.5 needs 40 or fewer remaining points.
      • South Carolina leading should create late-game clock pressure if Tennessee cannot sustain drives.
      • Most likely loss: South Carolina's +0.94 offensive EPA/play and 33.3% explosive rate continue, producing an early shootout.
    14. Tennessee Volunteers spread −3
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tennessee allows 14.7 points per game and -0.04 defensive EPA/play; South Carolina allows 25.5 and +0.11.
      • Recent form favors Tennessee: 4-1, +12.6 margin over its last five versus South Carolina 2-3, +3.2.
      • Most likely loss: South Carolina's home edge keeps Tennessee within two or wins outright.

    Questions

    Who won Tennessee vs. South Carolina?

    South Carolina won 27-24 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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