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UL Monroe vs. TroyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
UL Monroe0–6
21–14Final
Troy3–3
Score by period
Team1234T
ULM0301821
TROY700714

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 50.5 total 50¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Pinnacle's exact 50.5 reference is Over -111 / Under -105; devigged Under is 49.3%.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-8 on this game · −35% return

  1. Over 50.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing possession count is 24.3 projected combined drives and 141.8 combined plays; 11.7% Troy and 11.4% ULM explosive rates support the Over.
    • Most likely loss: Troy repeats its six-point offensive showing and ULM again fails to convert drives, leaving 50 or fewer points.
  2. Under 50.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's exact 50.5 reference is Over -111 / Under -105; devigged Under is 49.3%.
    • Load-bearing chances: 141.8 combined current plays, but only 3.65 combined points per drive; both offenses average 11.5% explosive plays.
    • Most likely loss: Troy's home offense converts ULM's 0.273 defensive EPA allowed into short-field touchdowns.
  3. Troy Trojans spread −18.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle -13 -102/+13 -111 devigs to roughly 49.0% Troy at the anchor.
    • Moving from -13 to -18.5 crosses 14 and 17; subtracting 3.5% and 2.5% gives ~43.0% fair.
    • Expected-QB feed lists Goose Crowder and Aidan Armenta; Fox reports Crowder ready, with no reported QB change in the moved line.
    • College lineup status remains expected, not official; late warmup scratches are unknown.
  4. Troy Trojans −12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season profile: Troy +0.089 offensive PPA and +0.077 defensive PPA allowed versus ULM -0.048 and +0.294.
    • Troy's 2026 FPI rating is -9.637 versus ULM -26.539; external rating validates, but is not an extra convergence vote.
    • Goose Crowder is reported ready after the shoulder issue; expected lineup has him at QB, avoiding the backup-QB override.
    • Troy's last five offense is only 0.033 EPA/play while ULM's is 0.107; recent-form convergence is weaker than the season profile.
  5. Game total under 46.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same ProphetX ladder quotes under 50.5 at -109, an impossible ordering versus the lower under 46.5 rung.
    • Six-game current samples combine for 44.3 points per game; both offenses average under 28.0 seconds per play.
    • QB gate cleared from latest boxes: Aidan Armenta led ULM with 24 attempts and Goose Crowder led Troy with 16; current-season search found no out or game-time decision.
    • ULM’s defense allowed 0.273 EPA/play across six games, giving Troy a clear 30-plus-point scoring path.
  6. Troy Trojans to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −625 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy's 2026 FPI rating is -9.64 versus ULM's -26.54; current-season points allowed are 25.5 versus 41.2 per game.
    • Recent 10-game defensive EPA allowed: Troy +0.0287/play versus ULM +0.2032; ULM is 0-6 in 2026 while Troy is 3-3.
    • Sun Belt availability has no official injury feed here; expected lineups have no observation timestamp, so late personnel news is unresolved.
Show all 12 picks
  1. Troy −11
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Across the ladder: Troy depth_stake $8,476 versus UL Monroe $4,098; Troy has 2.07x the total depth.
    • Book_levels: Troy 3 versus UL Monroe 2; all three measures align on Troy's patient demand.
    • Backing Troy, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; exact ProphetX offer is -121.
    • Orders can cancel or reprice before the 1:00 PM PDT kickoff; this snapshot was captured at approximately 12:22 PM PDT.
  2. Troy Trojans first-half spread NO 7.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy’s 2026 profile and ULM’s defensive profile imply roughly +10 full-game points; Pinnacle’s -13.0 anchor yields a blended +12 mean, or +6 at halftime.
    • 4,432 regular-season FBS finals from 2022, 26 have margin SD 15.19; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.74.
    • College key-number mass is computed, not imported: margins 3, 7, and 10 occurred 436, 345, and 189 times; 7.5 is adjacent to the 7-point cluster.
    • First-half SD is inferred from full-game outcomes, not directly observed; discrete scoring and explosive plays can defeat the normal tail.
  3. Troy Trojans spread −14
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game FBS sample: Troy allows +0.064 EPA/play versus ULM allowing +0.273, a 0.209 EPA/play defensive mismatch favoring Troy.
    • QB gate cleared: Crowder and Armenta led their latest passing boxes; the live Fox Sports status says Crowder is ready to roll, while the lineup feed expects both.
    • Similar pace (Troy 27.90, ULM 27.20 seconds/play) and the existing low-total read support Troy winning through defense without requiring a shootout.
    • Most likely loss: ULM's aggressive +0.137 PROE and +0.078 offensive EPA/play create enough offense to stay within 14 despite Troy's defensive edge.
  4. Game total under 50.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy and ULM average 24.3 and 20.0 points through six games; Troy's offense is only +0.040 EPA/play and plays at 27.9 seconds per snap.
    • Personnel gate cleared: latest pass-attempt leaders are Goose Crowder and Aidan Armenta; current Fox coverage lists both as starting quarterbacks, and notes Crowder is ready despite the earlier shoulder question.
    • Most likely loss: ULM's defense allows short fields and Troy reaches 35-plus, pushing the game to 51 or higher.
  5. Game total over 51
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game scoring/defensive blend yields 55.5 points versus the 50.5 sharp total.
    • UL Monroe allows 41.2 points per game and +0.2728 defensive EPA/play; Troy averages 24.3 points per game.
    • The matchup blend estimates Troy 32.8 and UL Monroe 22.8 before home-field or pace adjustments.
    • Troy scored only 6 points last week, so its offense has a recent low-output failure mode.
  6. Troy Trojans spread −12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, my cover estimate is 55.0% versus ProphetX's 51.92¢ price.
    • UL Monroe has allowed 41.17 points and 0.2728 defensive EPA per play across six 2026 games.
    • Troy is at home; ULM enters 0-6 with a -21.2 average margin, while its defense creates a favorable matchup for Troy's offense.
    • Troy averages only 24.33 points and just scored six against Louisiana; its offense may not sustain the required margin.

Questions

Who won UL Monroe vs. Troy?

The UL Monroe won 21–14 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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