UT Martin vs. Western IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHanson Field
UT Martin3–4
24–55Final
Western Illinois3–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| WEST | 7 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 55 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWestern Illinois Leathernecks to win −130
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Research grade 74/100 (unvalidated score): current-season efficiency, venue splits, SRS gap, and executable price support the side; lineup/news gaps keep it below high conviction.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-1 on this game · +45% return
- Western Illinois Leathernecks to win+77%Won
Taken at −130 on DraftKings
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, BETALAB 6.0 +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Research grade 74/100 (unvalidated score): current-season efficiency, venue splits, SRS gap, and executable price support the side; lineup/news gaps keep it below high conviction.
- Current-season scoring margin is Western Illinois +6.29 per game versus UT Martin -6.29 across 7 regular-season games each.
- Only 7 current-season games per team; the 44.6-point combined margin SD makes the distribution wide and the estimate volatile.
BETALAB 6.0- Season EPA profile favors Western Illinois: offense +0.131/play versus UT Martin -0.033; defense allowed -0.026 versus +0.122.
- Western Illinois leads in success rate 47.2% to 42.6%, explosive rate 13.9% to 9.1%, and points per drive 2.40 to 1.73.
- Both teams are FCS and only seven 2026 games are in the season sample; estimate uncertainty is roughly 55%-63%.
Long Way Home- PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, no same-line sharp moneyline quote, so this is an independent efficiency read.
- 2026 through seven games: Western Illinois is +0.131 offensive EPA/play versus UT Martin at -0.033.
- Most likely loss: turnover or special-teams variance lets UT Martin win outright despite the efficiency gap.
- Game total under 48.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX under 48.5 is +105 (48.78¢), while its adjacent under 49 is -112 (52.83¢): a 4.05-point gap versus roughly 1.08 points of half-push mass.
- Under 48.5 loses on every total of 49 or more; it receives no refund on 49.
- Western Illinois −2.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection edge; SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle also makes Western Illinois -2.5 the favorite (-115).
- Western Illinois averages +0.131 offensive EPA/play versus UT Martin's -0.033.
- Western Illinois allows -0.026 defensive EPA/play; UT Martin allows +0.122.
- Most likely loss: UT Martin's home-field advantage keeps the game within a field goal.
Questions
Who won UT Martin vs. Western Illinois?
The Western Illinois won 55–24 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.